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© 2017 The European House - Ambrosetti S.p.A. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. This document is property of TEH-A. It may not bereproduced, memorized for storage in an electronic data base or transmitted in any form or by any means (electronic,mechanical, photocopying, recording or other), in whole or in part, without the express written consent of TEH-A.
Istanbul, 20th June 2017
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEXThe true barometer of a country's attractiveness
Key results of the project
Strictly Confidential
The European House - Ambrosetti has been named, for the third year, best Private Think Tank in Italy and4th in Europe in the University of Pennsylvania’s “Global Go To Think Tanks Report”
Lorenzo TavazziHead of the Scenario and Intelligence Division
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
2
The European House – Ambrosetti
The European House –Ambrosetti (TEH-A), established in 1965, is a consultancy firm headquartered in Italy and with offices world-wide
Boston
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Shanghai
Tokyo
ItalyAnconaBologna Milan NaplesRomeTurinTriesteVerona
Europe
Berlin
Brussels
London
Madrid
Seoul
Singapore
Johannesburg
TEH-A is among the world’s top private think tanks (the University of Pennsylvania ranked TEH-A 1st in Italy and in the top ten in Europe)
TEH-A provides strategy and management consulting services, strategic scenarios and research, forums and top-executive education programs
Our flagship forum “Intelligence On The World, On Europe, On Italy” (“Villa d’Este Forum”) is one of the most important gatherings of top executives taking place in Europe; 2017 will mark the 43rd forum
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
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The European House – Ambrosetti: key facts and figures*
(*) In the University of Pennsylvania 2016 Global Go To Think Tanks Report
200PEOPLETHINK
TANK
Over 70#1EVENTS
300
Organized meetings and
gatherings yearly
EXPERTS
2,000
National and international
experts involved in per
year
10,000MANAGERS
Accompanied in their search for
growth and development
Over 100STRATEGIC
STUDIES
Addressed to Italian and
international institutions per
year
In cross-border M&A operations,
with its affiliate
K-Finance
CONSULTING FIRM
Over 50YEARS
Working alongside
entrepreneurs to help them grow
400CLIENTS
Served in consulting
per year
Demonstrating their passion and
commitment
Served each year, through
counseling in Family
Agreements and Governance
Systems
FAMILY BUSINESSES
COUNTRIES
12
Direct presence or partnership
#1
1st in Italy, in the European top ten and in the World top one-
hundred most-esteemed
independent out of 6,846 Think Tanks
globally (*)
ENGINEERS
130
Dedicated to digital
transformation consultancy by partnering with
CEFRIEL (Milan Polytechnic)
(*) With reference to a single year
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
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The starting point: why managing «attractiveness» is relevant
Growth of income and value addedInvestment
(local/foreign)
Know-how(research, development, etc.)
Tourist flows
Residential settlement
CATEGORIES/ELEMENTS TO ATTRACT
Growth of employment
Increased capital available
Widespread innovation
Cultural cross-fertilization
LOCAL SPINOFFS
Input Output
Talents/highly-skilled workers
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
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The starting point: “attractiveness” is a zero-sum game
Source: The European House - Ambrosetti elaboration on UNCTAD and World Bank data, 2016
55%43%
2%
DevelopedEconomies
DevelopingEconomies
TransitionEconomies
55%43%
2%
Economiesviluppate
Economie invia di sviluppo
Economie intransizione
$1.762
mld
Ec. sviluppate
Ec. in via di sviluppo
Ec. in transizione
$962 mld
$765 mld
$35 mld
2005-2015
Developed Economies
Developing Economies
Transition Economies
$1,762 bn
mld va cambiato in bn
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
6
Attractiveness is a strategic issue for Italy (and Turkey)
China
1
Hong Kong2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
USA
UK
Singapore
Brazil
Canada
Australia
India
Netherlands
2015 inward flows(bn$, current prices)
vs. 2014 2015 inward flows(bn$, current prices)
22
MexicoSwitzerland
Luxembourg
France
Turkey
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
380
175
136
101
73
69
65
65
52
49
44
43
40
32
31
30
25
22
20
17
Vs. 2014
Source: The European House - Ambrosetti elaboration on UNCTAD and World Bank data, 2016
Ireland
British Virgin Islands
Germany
Belgium
Italy
#Rank by flows
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
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The rational behind the Global Attractiveness Index
International rankings have a significant role in:
Steering companies investment decisions and public policies
Positioning a country-system in the international community
Considering the most relevant international rankings:
Italy usually scores very poorly, often behind developing economies
This applies also for other developed countries (e.g. Spain), countries that are leaders in some areas like science and technology (e.g. Japan) or that are destination of important FDI’s flows (e.g. China)
Also Turkey is penalized despite its economic and strategic role
Generally speaking, current international rankings tend to project a misrepresented image of the actual reality of an economy
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
8
Reality vs. ranking?
Italy
8th globally considering GDP
9th considering export
4th globally considering the Value Added of manufacturing industry
13th globally considering GFCF (GrossFixed Capital Formation)
Turkey
18th globally considering GDP
Real GDP growth 2.5% vs 1.7% Europe*
More than 950,000 high school graduates with around half from vocational and technical high schools
Italy
44th Global Competitiveness Index 2016-2017
50th Ease of Doing Business 2016
77th World Press Freedom Index 2016
61th Corruption Perceptions Index
Turkey
55th Global Competitiveness Index 2016-2017
69th Ease of Doing Business 2016
43rd Global Innovation Index
46th World Talent Index
Real economy Ranking
(*) Source: Economic Outlook, IMF, June 2017Source: The European House - Ambrosetti elaboration, 2017
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
9
Mission and objectives of the Global Attractiveness Index project
1. Analyzing the methodologies applied by main international rankings and highlight their strengths and weaknesses
2. Building an innovative and reliable index on country-attractiveness
3. Identifying attractiveness’ Key Performance Indicators and set up an interpretative model (“Tableau de Bord”)
4. Studying the best practices to manage the country’s image and positioning in international rankings
5. Devising recommendations and proposals for an effective strategy in order to improve the Country image and attractiveness
MISSION
Making available to international decision makers an Index able to provide a sound representation of country's attractiveness and competitive sustainability and, thus, reliable guidance to support business choices and public policy
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
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The Advisory Board of the project
INDEPENDENT STATISTICAL AUDIT
Joint Research Center (JRC)
PARTNERS
Enrico GiovanniniFull Professor of EconomicStatistics, Università Di Roma “Tor Vergata”; former President ISTAT and Minister of Labour and Social Policies
Ferruccio de BortoliJournalist, Chairman, Casa Editrice Longanesi and Associazione Vidas
SCIENTIFIC COMMETTEE
THE EUROPEAN HOUSE – AMBROSETTI WORKING TEAM
Lorenzo Tavazzi (Project Leader), Cetti Lauteta, Massimiliano Sartori, Benedetta Brioschi, Arianna Landi with the supervision of Valerio De Molli (Managing Director)
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
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Our analysis on 80 country indexes and 650 KPIs shows some recurrent criticalities
EXTENSIVE OF SURVEY
WEIGHTING
“OPTIMAL” MODELS
NON-HOMOGENEOUS
DATA
“CRITICAL MASS”
STATIC
Often are poorly statistically representative and subjective, also according those who provide answers
Introducing subjective elements
The functioning model of the country where the Institution providing the ranking is based conditions the parameters and the comparison
Different aggregation criteria are used for non-comparable data
The absolute dimension of a country is not taken into account
The sustainability of the positioning in the middle-term is not taken in account (“backward looking” view)
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
12
Country Ranking
Index Institute Country US Switz. Germany France Australia
Ease of Doing Business WB USA 8th 31st 17th 29th 15th
Global Competitiveness Index WEF Switzerland 3rd 1st 5th 21st 22th
World CompetitivenessScoreboard
IMD Switzerland 3rd 2th 12th 32ty 17th
Global Peace Index IEP Australia 114th 9th 16th 51st 12th
Social Progress Index SPI USA 19th 5th 15th 18th 4th
Corruption Perception Index TI Germany 18th 5th 10th 23rd 13rd
Global Talent CompetitivenessIndex
INSEAD France 4th 1st 17th 24th 6th
Global Manufacturing Index Deloitte USA 2nd 12th 3rd 22nd 21st
Global Innovation Index INSEAD France 4th 1st 9th 15th 23rd
It seems that correlations between high scores in the rankings and the nationality of the editors' institutes exist
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
13
«Cultural» bias and attitudes can influence international rankings
57.1
Italians' judgment on their country
External reputation
(average score in foreign countries
investigated)
Internal reputation
(Italians' judgment on their country)
71.7 57.1
Country reputation (internal and external), 2017
80+
70-79
60-69
40-59
0-39
Excellent
Strong
Moderate
Poor
Scarce
Legend
ITALY
Source: The European House - Ambrosetti elaboration Reputation Institute (Country RepTrak Pulse) data, 2017
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
14
The objectives defined to build the Global Attractiveness Index (GAI)
Annual update, allowed by the usage of variables (KPI) periodically detected from main international institutionsREPLICABILITY
OBJECTIVITY
SOUNDNESS
MEANINGFULNESS
Principally based on quantitative and objective variables coming from main international database
Few proxy indicators, non-dependent between each other
Focus on results (output) compared to efforts (input)
GAI goal: measure the attractiveness of a Country, critical element to evaluate its development capability
INTERNAL EXTERNAL
Capability to retain resources already in the Country
Capability to attract resources not yet in the Country
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
15
We identified 4 attributes to define a country’s attractiveness ...
Allows the circulation of economic and human resources
Promotes scientific and technologic progress for both companies and citizens
Ensure the correct functioning of capital market, products market and labor market
Owns distinctive and valuable
assets with a strong positioning in the
mind map (business community and public
opinion)
Openness
Innovation
Efficiency
Endowment
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
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... and identified the characteristics of a country’s sustainability
Has sound macro-economics,
institutional and social
fundamentals
Reactsadequatelyto shocks
High life standards
and environmentstandards
Resilience(+)
Vulnerability(-)
Reacts to/absorbs shocks and/or crisis or uncertainty periods and is capable to positively adapt itself to changes, adjusting institutional, social and economic structures and models
1.
2. Is exposed to negative impacts coming from harmful situations/events (internal or external), because of its intrinsic economic, social and organizational characteristics
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
17
Global Attractiveness Index (GAI) Structure
aa
Innovation
Openness
Endowment
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX
(144 COUNTRIES)
Sustainability Index(IS)
Positioning Index(IP)
Vulnerability
Resilience
Efficiency
Dynamicity Index(ID)
Δ Innovation
Δ Openness
Δ Endowment
Δ Efficiency
A
B
C
The robustness of the GAI methodology was ascertained by means of an independent statistical audit performed by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
18
Attractiveness Key Performance Indicator identified
Openness Innovation Efficiency Endowment Resilience Vulnerability
(FDI flows +
Country’s
investments
abroad) on world
total
(Export+Import),
on world total
(Foreign tourists
+ national
tourists travelling
abroad) on total
population
Foreign College
Students on
young pop.
Number of
immigrants on
total pop.
Employees in
high-tech
sectors on total
employees
Export of high-
tech goods on
world total
Internet users
as a share of
population
ICT
Development
Index
Number of
scientific
publications on
world total
Unemployment
rate
Logistics
Performance
Index
TFP
Total Tax Rate
Rule of Law
Index
GDP on world
total
Gross National
Product per-
capita
Gross Fixed
Investments on
national GDP
Index of Natural
and Cultural
endowment
Number of
graduates on
world total
Human
Development
Index
Global Peace
Index
Life expectancy
at birth
World Giving
Index
Average number
of years of
schooling
Debt/GDP
Inflation rate
Market
concentration
index
Number of
people killed by
natural disasters
(on 1,000
people, in the
last 3 years)
Number of
suicides, % of
total population
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
19
GAI
Rank 2016
GAI
Score 2016
Country
Dinamicity
Positioning
Sustainability
US 1 100,0
Germany 2 99,6
Japan 3 98,9
Canada 4 98,1
Singapore 5 97,7
UK 6 90,4
Australia 7 88,6
The Netherlands 8 86,9
South Korea 9 85,8
China 10 85,7
Switzerland 11 83,9
France 12 82,8
Hong Kong 13 80,9
Italy 14 73,0
Austria 15 71,8
Denmark 16 71,8
Russia 17 71,0
Sweden 18 70,2
Spain 19 68,6
Ireland 20 66,4
Turkey 45 46,1
Critical
High
Medium
Low
Legend
The Global Attractiveness Index 2016
From 1=min to 100=max
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
20
GAI reflects attractiveness
Global Attractiveness Index and Gross Fixed Investments(Gross Fixed Capital Formation, bln. US$), 2015, OECD Countries
N.B. USA outlier
Germany
Japan
Canada
UK
South Korea
The Netherlands
Australia
Switzerland
France
Italy
Austria
Denmark
Sweden
Spain
Ireland
Norway
Luxembourg
Belgium
Finland
Czech Rep.
New ZelandPoland
Iceland
Mexico
Estonia
Chile Israel
Slovenia
Hungary
Slovakia
Turkey
Portugal
Latvia
Greece
-1E+11
1E+11
3E+11
5E+11
7E+11
9E+11
1,1E+12
0,200 0,250 0,300 0,350 0,400 0,450 0,500 0,55010030 807040 50 60 90 GAI Index
(1=min; 100=max)
USA
1.000
800
600
400
200
GFCF (bln.$)
0
Source: The European House - Ambrosetti elaboration on World Bank data, 2016
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
21
= rank Italy
19 9 34 33 31 12 14 51 33 7 110 21 40 133 30 8 27 114 63 16
Italy 14
144
1
Italy 21
144
1
GAI provides a reliable Tableau de Bord for the decisionmakers
Italy14/144
Dynamicity Index
Sustainability Index
Positioning Index
Innovation Efficiency EndowmentOpenness
For
eign
tou
rists
+ n
atio
nal
tour
ists
tra
velli
ng
abro
ad
FD
I IN
+ In
vest
imen
ti O
UT
Exp
ort
+ Im
port
For
eign
Col
lege
Stu
dent
s
Nt m
igra
nts
Em
plo
yees
in h
igh
-tec
h s
ecto
rs
Exp
ort
of h
igh-
tech
goo
ds
Inte
rnet
use
rs
ICT
Dev
elop
men
t
Inde
x
Num
ber
of s
cien
tific
publ
icat
ions
Une
mpl
oym
ent
rate
Logi
stic
Per
form
ance
Ind
ex
Tot
al f
acto
rpr
oduc
tivity
Tot
al t
axra
te
Rul
eof
Law
Inde
x
GD
P
Gro
ssN
atio
nal
Pro
duct
per
-cap
ita
Gro
ss F
ixed
Inv
estm
ents
Inde
x of
Nat
ural
and
Cul
tura
l
endo
wm
ent
Num
ber
of g
radu
ates
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
22
The Tableau de Bord for Italy
4 “work areas” for our Country:
1. Strengthen the national innovation ecosystem and the ability to create “disruption” by implementing a “national innovation strategy”
2. Support the manufacturing system development and the elaboration of new production models by enhancing service automation and integration and both Internet and IT technologies in industrial production
3. Modernize the training and requalification of the labour force to cope with the new requirements of production and society by introducing innovative educational approaches and promoting lifelong learning
4. Improve the efficiency of the Country’s basic services (PA, justice system and logistics) accelerating ongoing reforms
ATTRACTIVENESS’S
ATTRIBUTES
(RANK ITALY)
Openness
(17/144)
Innovation
(10/144)
Efficiency
(50/144)
Endowment
(15/144)
N.B. Positioning in relation to competing countries needs to be assessed
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
23
= rank Turkey
Dynamicity Index
Sustainability Index
For
eign
tou
rists
+ n
atio
nal
tour
ists
tra
velli
ng
abro
ad
Positioning Index
Innovation EfficiencyOpenness
FD
I IN
+ In
vest
imen
ti O
UT
Exp
ort
+ Im
port
For
eign
Col
lege
Stu
dent
s
Nt m
igra
nts
Em
plo
yees
in h
igh
-tec
h s
ecto
rs
Exp
ort
of h
igh-
tech
goo
ds
Inte
rnet
use
rs
ICT
Dev
elop
men
t
Inde
x
Num
ber
of s
cien
tific
publ
icat
ions
Une
mpl
oym
ent
rate
Logi
stic
Per
form
ance
Ind
ex
Tot
al f
acto
rpr
oduc
tivity
Tot
al t
axra
te
Rul
eof
Law
Inde
x
GD
P
Gro
ssN
atio
nal
Pro
duct
per
-cap
ita
Gro
ss F
ixed
Inv
estm
ents
Inde
x of
Nat
ural
and
Cul
tura
l
endo
wm
ent
30 23 60 50 16 32 26 66 61 18 99 33 18 87 77 18 53 67 54 9
Num
ber
of g
radu
ates
Turkey 65
144
1
Turkey 64
GAI provides a reliable Tableau de Bord for the decisionmakers
Turkey45/144
144
1
Endowment
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
24
Globally, Countries manage their image and their positioning in rankings
Country Action
Positioning
Ease of Doing Business 2016 (out of 189)
World CompetitivenessIndex 2016 (out of 140)
Singapore“Mr Ranking” (representative of the Government)
1 (since 10 following years) 2 (since 5 following years)
Filippine Government’s EODB-Task Force103 (+35 positions in thepast 2 years)
47 (+12 positions in the past2 years)
Malaysia Government’s PEMUDAH-Task Force18 (in the top-20 in the past5 years)
18 (in the top-25 in the past5 years)
IndiaMinistry of Trade and Industry Task force
130 (+12 positions in 1 year) 55 (+16 positions in 1 year)
Ireland National Competitiveness Council17 (in the top-20 in the past5 years)
24 (in the top-30 in the past5 years)
Denmark Danish Business Autorithy3 (in the top-5 in the past 5 years)
12 (in the top-12 in the past5 years)
USA Council on Jobs and Competiveness*7 (in the top-7 in the past 10 years)
3 (in the top-5 in the past 5 years)
(*) With private oustanding Institutions (Universities, companies, etc.); Council Chairman is appointed by The President of the USA
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
25
We identified 5 pillars for managing the country image strategically
National divisionto manage
Country-rankings
Improve data quality and availability
Re-design «Country Image»
Abroad IntegratedCommunication
Strategy
Developinternationaladvocacy and sensibilization
activities
1.
2.
3.4.
5.National policy to manage Country-Image
Monitoring Country ranking
Action on critical KPIs defining priorities
Watchdog on data quality
Technical Webinars
Awareness meetings
Vademecum on activated Country reforms
National brand steering committee
Multidisciplinary Task force
International mediacampaigns
Viral social initiatives
Increase country contact points*
Showcase events
(*) Investin”In” website, Embassy as “sales department“, Culture Institutes, etc.
«Truth» campaign on international rankings
Univocal definition of Country’s competitiveness
Measuring of new KPIs, as of today not available
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
26
Next steps: Global Attractiveness Index 2017
UPDATING AND
DEVELOPING GAI INDEX
Ranking GAI 2017 and strategic Tableau de Bord
FOLLOW-UP WITH JOINT
RESEARCH CENTER (JRC)
Drafting of the Statistical Audit Document and integration of the index into the statistical handbook
PROPOSALS FOR IMAGE-COUNTRY MANAGEMENT
AND ATTRACTIVENESS
Meetings with stakeholders and policymakers
CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF INTERNATIONAL
RANKINGS
Extend mapping of country-rankings and update analysis of methodological distortions
BENCHMARK AND INTERNATIONAL CASE
STUDIES
Intelligence about policies and other countries' initiatives concerned the manage of country image
ME
DIA
CO
MM
UN
ICA
TIO
NA
ND
DIS
SE
MIN
AT
ION
6
1 2
3 4 5
GAI’S PRESENTATION AND ACCREDITATION7
Presentation at TEH-A Villa d’Este Forum 2017
Meeting Foreign Ambassadors at the Italian Foreign Ministry
Presentations at international events
Round Table Ambrosetti Club (Rome)
Meetings with European Institutions (European Commission, ECB, etc.)
Meetings with Bilateral Chambers of Commerce
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
27
GAI Report 2016 with its latest updates are freely available at www.ambrosetti.eu/en/global-attractiveness-index
GLOBAL ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX: The true measure of a country's attractiveness
28
Lorenzo TavazziHead of Scenario and Intelligence Dapartment, The European House – Ambrosetti
E-mail: lorenzo.tavazzi@ambrosetti.eu
Tel.:+39 02 46753 302
Website: www.ambrosetti.eu
Thank you for your attention!
Do not trust the statistics until you have carefully considered what they do not say
William Watt
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