future of strategic foresight june 2014
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How to make sense of the external ecosystem
Presented by:Dr Michael JacksonChairman: Shaping
Tomorrow
Achieving persistent strategic agility, advantage and resilience through innovation and risk management
www.shapingtomorrow.com
About us“Shaping Tomorrow is one of the top Global 10 Innovation websites” : Adam Bates KPMG May 2014
All rights reserved
Changing environment
Source: Emery 1980
Unstable
Stable
Simple Complex
Benign Passive
R
eactive Turbulent
Benign Passive
R
eactive Turbulent
Changing environments
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Future demand for innovation and risk mgt.
Increasing demand for systematic anticipation and preparedness from:
Governments- Military, Crime, Defence, Food, Health, Animal health, Science …
Commercials- Health, Telecoms, Energy …
Not-for-profits- Health, Water, Science …
A switch from static news gathering to dynamic intelligence reconnaissance and limited analysis to whole system thinking
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Systematic foresight
Horizon Scanning and sense-making was a manual process
Continuousand systematic,scanningfor ideas and issues
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Focused scanning
Now becoming automated with human input
Scan organisations,scanners, rivals,protesters, regulators, search words etc.
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TimeliningGraphical pattern finding
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Modelling, gaming and simulation
Visual dashboards as early warning systemsBalanced scorecardsPartnership approaches
Structured data analyticsr
MMORPG’s e.g. IFTFWarcraft equivalents
Visokio
Shaping Tomorrow
Southbeach
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World data/big data
Rising interest in mixing large data sets (e.g. GDP and happiness) to spot crisis points earlyMassive funding for global intelligence projectsData fusion
e.g. GapMinderForward indicators e.g.
Shock Index
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Predictive analytics
Aims: moving from single keyword to real-time multiplemeta data searches
Scour the webExtract, analyze, rankMake it useful
CollaborationKnowledge managementSearch & discoveryData integration
Big Data uses for Foresight
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Content profiling
Filtering Insights and Trends by user profile:e.g. industry, interests, expertise
Sentiment analysise.g. fear, excitement
Narrative capturee.g. ideas
Latent Semantic Indexinge.g. concept searches Bias is essential to avoid
‘group think’ but being conscious of bias from theoutset reduces error andincreases understanding
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Strategic thinking
Comprehensive, logical, qualitative and quantitative toolkits for, fast decision making
Analogy | Brainstorm | CLA | Counterpoint | Megatrends | PIR | Red hat | Redefinition | Starburst | Verge | Communicate | Exaggerate | Inspire | Leapfrog | Reverse| Tear-down | Thinking Hats | Vision
Continuous planning and acting
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Great foresight tools
Parmenides Eidos: visual strategic options analysisReal-Time Delphi: global opinion studiesRoadmapping Technology: strategic roadmapping software SciCast: crowdsourced predictionAnalysis of Competing Hypotheses: analyze incomplete or ambiguous informationInsights Maker: online simulation and modeling Implications Wheel: group process for discovering and mapping the implications of changeCoggle: a freeware mind-mapping web applicationKumu: cloud-based visualization platform for mapping systems and better understanding relationships
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Global solution networks
Foresight communitiesExpert solution providers
- Construction, Design, Security …
Free sites | Rapid delivery | Co-creation | Joint research
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Global collaboration
Increasing need for joined up thinking between governments , academia, NGO’s, commercial organisations.
Mobile apps
All channel distribution
Multi-lingual
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Gaming & Certification
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Web-based education
FreeElectronic guides/books
- linked to content
WebinarsOn-line workshops
…Revenue
Privacy/Multi-licencesVirtual consultancy/mentoringSpecialist needsMOOCS - Online degrees …
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Now for the future!
Article and report capture
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Basic auto population
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Advanced auto population
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Background Extraction
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Foresight statements
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Displaying the results
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Search Foresights
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Export Foresights
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Web Summarizer – Tree View
Plus Mind Maps, Clouds etc.
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Web Summarizer – Summary Report
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Making sense of the future ecosystem
Extra-ordinary value addedCloud-based rather than home grownOpen/closed collaborationOutsourcing/partneringFast action/reactionConvergence of innovation, risk and business and competitive intelligence systemsFrom subscription to consumption economics!!
Machine/human partnershipMore automated foresightOracle like answersOrganised decision-makingOnline learning for all
But, still human intervention, creativity and decision-making for the foreseeable future
Towards semi-automated sense making – a global brain
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Questions?
Mike Jackson: mike.jackson@shapingtomorrow.com
Shaping Tomorrow: www.shapingtomorrow.com
Thanks for listening
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