future intelligence dealing with uncertainty through scenario dynamics. philippe gabilliet, escp-eap

FUTURE INTELLIGENCEFUTURE INTELLIGENCE

Dealing with uncertainty through scenario dynamics.

Philippe Gabilliet, ESCP-EAPPhilippe Gabilliet, ESCP-EAP

« Looking at the human beings living their lives,

I can confirm that

their one and almost only preoccupation

is to live their future in advance, »

Jean Sutter

FACES OF UNCERTAINTYFACES OF UNCERTAINTY

?

GLOBAL

MANAGERIAL

PERSONALSOCIAL

MARKETS

CORPORATE

CURRENT UNCERTAINTYBasic ingredients

CURRENT UNCERTAINTYBasic ingredients

1° - ACCELERATING CHANGES IN THE ENVIRONMENT

2° - LOOSING LANDMARKS AND BLIND FLYING

3° - AN ERA OF COMPLEXITY

4° - REDISCOVERING INERTIA

UNCERTAINTY : the four levels(from : Courtney, Kirkland, Viguerie)

UNCERTAINTY : the four levels(from : Courtney, Kirkland, Viguerie)

A CLEAR ENOUGH FUTURE

A single forecast precise enough for determining strategy.

ALTERNATE FUTURES

1

3

2

A few discrete outcomes that define the future.

A RANGE OF FUTURES

A range of possible outcomes, but no natural scenarios

TRUE AMBIGUITY

No basis to forecast the future.

?

ACCESSING TO THE FUTUREThree ways

ACCESSING TO THE FUTUREThree ways

* By the PAST => FORESEEING

* By the FUTURE => PREDICTING

* By the PRESENT => ANTICIPATING

FACING THE FUTURESix ways to think about tomorrow

FACING THE FUTURESix ways to think about tomorrow

THE OSTRICH

THE FIREMAN

THE GAMBLER

THE INSURER

THE SENTINEL

THE EXPLORER

FACE THE FUTUREThree standpoints

FACE THE FUTUREThree standpoints

REACTIVITY The executive is ready to face changes he ignores all about

PRE-ACTIVITY The executive is ready to face changes predictably enough

PRO-ACTIVITY The executive behaves to produce changes that he wishes

THE « A » FORMULA THE « A » FORMULA

MANTICI-PATION

D

I

ANTICIPATINGFour principles for action

ANTICIPATINGFour principles for action

1° - MAKING THE RIGHT DECISION AS A BET

2° - SEARCHING THE CAUSE IN THE FUTURE

3° - REHEARSING THE CRITICAL OPTIONS

4° - THINKING THE COMING LINKS

WHAT COULD YOU TELL US

ABOUT YOURSELF

WITHIN 10 YEARS FROM NOW ?

2015

2005

FUTURE LANDMARKS

« I am myself,

and my circumstances...»

M. Ortega y Gasset

FUTURE : Three groundsFUTURE : Three grounds

2015

2005

FUTURE LANDMARKS

FOUR QUESTIONS FOUR QUESTIONS

What are the driving forces ?

What is inevitable ?

What do you feel is uncertain ?

How about your main areas of free-will and basic options ?

2015

2005

FUTURE LANDMARKS

2015

2005

FUTURE LANDMARKS

1. B……………

2. N…………….

3. T…………… 4. B………….. S……….

5. S………….

6. O………… F………

FUTURE : my key decisionsFUTURE : my key decisions

MYMYDECISIONSDECISIONS

FUTURE-ORIENTED EXECUTIVESThe Fifth Question

FUTURE-ORIENTED EXECUTIVESThe Fifth Question

WHAT MAY HAPPEN ?

(alternatives)

WHAT WILL WE DO ?(strategy)

HOW TO DO IT ?(planning)

WHAT MAY WE DO ?(options)

FUTURE OF THE EXECUTIVESome basic assumptions

FUTURE OF THE EXECUTIVESome basic assumptions

FREE DOM AND RISK

SYSTEMATIC MOVES AND SHARED POWER

WILL AND PROJECT

INTUITION AND AWARENESS

« Looking into the future, is changing it already»

Gaston Berger

LOOKING AT THE FUTURE The 6 tracks

LOOKING AT THE FUTURE The 6 tracks

LOOKING FAR AHEAD

LOOKING GLOBALLY

LOOKING IN DEPTH

LOOKING RATIONALLY

LOOKING AT DIFFERENT ASSUMPTIONS

LOOKING WITH OTHERS

FUTUREIMAGE

1

FUTUREIMAGE

2

FUTUREIMAGE

3CURRENTSYSTEM

PATHWAY

PATHWAY

WHAT IS A SCENARIO ?WHAT IS A SCENARIO ?

SCENARIOS MATRIX(from Ilbury & Sunter)

SCENARIOS MATRIX(from Ilbury & Sunter)

CONTROL

CERTAINTYUNCERTAINTY

ABSENCE OF CONTROL

FOUR COMON SENSE IDEAS ABOUT THE FUTURE

FOUR COMON SENSE IDEAS ABOUT THE FUTURE

IT WILL NOT BE PERFECT

IT WILL BE THE PRODUCT OF AN ENVIRONMENT

IT ALREADY EXISTS

MANAGERS WHO GET READY FOR IT TODAY WIL BE THE BEST EQUIPPED TOMORROW

« Time scorns what is done in haste»

Paul Morand