fsr 2009:02 26/11/2009. government support from the riksbank and the swedish national debt office to...
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FSR 2009:02
26/11/2009
Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to
financial institutions on the Swedish market
SEK, billion
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
okt-08
nov-08
dec-08
jan-09
feb-09
mar-09
apr-09
maj-09
jun-09
jul-09
aug-09
sep-09
okt-09
nov-09
dec-09
Issues in USD and euro guaranteed by the Swedish National Debt Office
Issues in SEK guaranteed by the Swedish National Debt Office
The Riksbank's USD lending (in SEK)
The Riksbank's SEK lending
Sources: the Riksbank and Swedish National Debt OfficeChart 1:1
Federal Reserve balance sheetUSD, billions
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
aug-07 dec-07 apr-08 aug-08 dec-08 apr-09 aug-09 dec-09
0
200
400
600
800
1000
Total assets (left scale) TAF (right scale)CPFF (right scale) Swap lines to other central banks (right scale)Other liquidity facilites (right scale)
Source: Federal ReserveChart 1:2
Three-month interbank rate minus expected policy rate
Basis points
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
jan-07 jul-07 jan-08 jul-08 jan-09 jul-09 jan-10
US Euro area UK Sweden
Source: BloombergChart 1:3
Decomposition of the swedish basis spread
Basis points
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
jan-07 jul-07 jan-08 jul-08 jan-09 jul-09 jan-10
Credit premium Liquidity premium
Source: The RiksbankChart 1:4
Outstanding volumes in US commercial paper
USD, billions
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
jan-05 jan-06 jan-07 jan-08 jan-09 jan-10
Non-financial commercial paperFinancial commercial paperAsset Backed Commercial Papers
Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 1:5
Outstanding volumes of Euro Commercial Paper
USD, billions
0
200
400
600
800
1000
jan-07 jan-08 jan-09
Source: EuroclearChart 1:6
Ten-year government bond yields in various countries
Per cent
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
jan-07 jan-08 jan-09 jan-10
Germany France Spain Sweden US UK
Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 1:7
Issues of corporate bonds in US dollar
USD, Billions
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
Investment grade corporate bonds High-yield corporate bonds
Source: SIFMAChart 1:8
Credit spreads for corporate bonds in the United States and euro area
Basis points
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
jan-07 jan-08 jan-09 jan-10
AAA - euro area BBB - euro area Baa - US Aaa - US
Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 1:9
Credit spreads for high yield corporate bonds in the United States
and euro areaBasis points
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
jan-07 jan-08 jan-09 jan-10
US Euro area
Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 1:10
Actual global default rate and forecast
Per cent
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12
Actual global default rate in October 2009 Forecast in May 2009
Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 1:11
Difference between mortgage bond yields and government bond yields
with two and five years maturity respectively
Basis points
0
50
100
150
200
250
jan-07 jan-08 jan-09 jan-10
5-year 2-year
Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the RiksbankChart 1:12
Premiums in the CDS indexBasis points
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
jan-07 jan-08 jan-09 jan-10
North America - CDX Europe - iTraxx
Sources: Reuters EcoWin and BloombergChart 1:13
U.S. securitization market issuance volumesUSD, billions
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009-Q1
2009-Q2
2009-Q3
MBS - Government sponsored agencies MBS - Non-government ABS CDO
Source: Securities Industry and Markets AssociationChart 1:14
Stock market developmentsIndex, 28 December 2007=100
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
jan-08 jul-08 jan-09 jul-09 jan-10
Sweden - OMXS30 United States - S&P 500 Europe - STOXX
Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 1:15
Implied stock market volatilityPer cent, 10 day moving average
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Sweden - OMX Europe, STOXX United States - S&P 500 Historical average, OMX
Source: BloombergChart 1:16
P/E ratios
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
dec-93 dec-95 dec-97 dec-99 dec-01 dec-03 dec-05 dec-07 dec-09
Sweden - OMXS30 Europe - STOXX United States - S&P 500 Historical average, OMXS30, STOXX and S&P 500
Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 1:17
Swedish stress index
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2007 2008 2009 2010
Stress index TED spread Bond spread Equity volatility
Source: The RiksbankChart B1
International stress index
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2007 2008 2009 2010
Stress index TED spread Bond spread Equity volatility
Source: The RiksbankChart B2
Do you consider that the financial crisis has peaked?
Per cent
Source: The RiksbankChart B3
Result spring 2009
Result autumn
2009
Yes
No
Don’t know
Yes
No
Don’t know
86%
5%9%
46%
35%
19%
How has your propensity to take risk changed compared to six month ago?
Per cent
Source: The RiksbankChart B4
29%
20%
Result spring 2009 Result autumn 2009
Greatly increased
Increased
slightly
Neither increased or decreased
Decreased slightly
Greatly decreas
ed
32%
5%
52%
9%
34%
19%
7%
28%
12%
Greatly increased
Increased
slightlyNeither increased or decreased
Decreased slightly
Greatly decreased,
2%
How has your institution’s buffer of liquid assets changed compared to six
month ago?Per cent
Source: The RiksbankChart B5
28%
12%
9%
29%
20%
20%
17%
13%
5%
28%
17%
Result spring 2009 Result autumn 2009
Don’t know
Don’t know
Greatly increased
Greatly increased
Increased
slightly
Increased
slightly
Neither increased or decreased
Neither increased or decreased
Decreased slightly
Decreased slightly
Greatly decreas
ed
Greatly decreased,
2%
Households' financial net wealth
Percentage of disposable income
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Source: Statistics SwedenChart 2:1
Households' nominal disposable income and saving ratio
Annual percentage change and percentage of disposable income
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
93 97 01 05 09
Households' disposable incomes Households' saving ratio
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankChart 2:2
Households' total borrowing from credit institutionsAnnual percentage change
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
FSR 2009:2 FSR 2009:1
Source: The RiksbankChart 2:3
Consumer credit with housing as collateral, as
a percentage of disposable incomePer cent
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Sweden UK Australia
Sources: Reserve Bank of Australia, Reuters EcoWin, Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankChart 2:4
Breakdown of households' new loans by fixed interest period
Per cent
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
Variable rate Fixed rate < 5 years Fixed rate > 5 years
Source: The RiksbankChart 2:5
Households' debt and post-tax interest exependiturePercentage of disposable income
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
Debt ratio (left scale) Interest ratio (right scale)
Debt ratio FSR 2009:1 (left scale) Interest ratio FSR 2009:1 (right scale)
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankChart 2:6
Households below the margin, impaired loans and potential loan
lossesPer cent
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008(forecast)
2009(forecast)
2010(forecast)
Households below the margin Impaired loans Potential loan losses
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankChart 2:7
Percentage of debt and assets held by indebted households in different
income groupsPer cent
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Income group 1 Income group 2 Income group 3 Income group 4 Income group 5
Share of total debts Share of financial assets Share of real assets
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankChart 2:8
House prices in Sweden and the Stockholm, Göteborg and Malmö
regionsIndex, 1986 = 100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
Sweden Stockholm region Göteborg region Malmö region
Source: Statistics SwedenChart 2:9
Tenant-owned apartment prices, three-month moving average
SEK per square metre
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Sweden Stockholm regionGöteborg region Malmö regionSweden, excluding metropolitan areas
Source: www.maklarstatistik.seChart 2:10
Time to sale in SwedenNumber of days, median
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
jan-08 jul-08 jan-09 jul-09 jan-10
Single-family dwellings Tenant-owner apartments
Sources: Hemnet and www.maklarstatistik.seChart 2:11
Real house prices in Sweden and abroadIndex, 1995 = 100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Sweden Denmark Finland UK Germany
Sources: The BIS, Reuters EcoWin and Statistics SwedenChart B6
Real house prices in Sweden and abroadIndex, 1995 = 100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Sweden Norway Spain Ireland US Australia
Sources: Reuters EcoWin and Statisics SwedenChart B7
Household debt as percentage of disposable income
Per cent
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Sweden Norway Denmark Finland UKSpain US Australia
Sources: The BIS, national central banks, Reuters EcoWin and the RiksbankChart B8
Percentage of new borrowing with variable interest rates
Per cent
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Sweden Denmark UK Spain Ireland
2006 Q1 2009 Q1
Source: European Mortgage FederationChart B9
Housing investment in relation to GDP, seasonally-adjusted data
Per cent
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Sweden Norway Denmark UK Ireland Spain US Australia
Sources: Reuters EcoWin, Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankChart B10
Housing investments in relation to GDP, compared with changes in real
house pricesPer cent
US
Ireland
Spain
Denmark
UK
Norway
Australia
Sweden
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
-40-35-30-25-20-15-10-50Change in real houseprices
Max
(ho
usin
g in
vest
men
ts/G
DP)
Source: Reuters EcoWinChart B11
Change of mortgage rates compared with real house prices
Percentage and per cent
US
Sweden
AustraliaSpain
UK
Denmark
Ireland
-5,0
-4,5
-4,0
-3,5
-3,0
-2,5
-2,0
-1,5
-1,0
-0,5
0,0
-40-35-30-25-20-15-10-50
Change in real house prices
Mor
tgag
e ra
te
Sources: European Mortgage Federation, Federal Reserve and Reserve Bank of AustraliaChart B12
Interest rate changes as of 31 March 2009 compared with 30 September
2008Percentage points
-5,0
-4,0
-3,0
-2,0
-1,0
0,0
Sweden Denmark UK Ireland Spain US Australia
Sources: Central Bank & Financial Services Authority of Ireland, Reserve Bank of Australia and Reuters EcoWin
Chart B13
Real house prices as a percentage of GDP
in constant pricesIndex, 2000 = 100
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Sweden Denmark UK Spain Ireland US Australia
Source: Reuters EcoWinChart B14
Profitability and debt/total assets ratio in Swedish listed companies
Per cent
0
3
6
9
12
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
50
55
60
65
70
Profitability (left scale) Debt/total assets ratio (right scale)
Sources: Bloomberg and the RiksbankChart 2:12
Interest coverage ratio in Swedish listed companies
Ratio
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Sources: Bloomberg and the RiksbankChart 2:13
Current ratio in Swedish listed companies
Per cent
100
120
140
160
180
200
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Sources: Bloomberg and the RiksbankChart 2:14
The number of company bankruptcies broken down by
company sizeTwelve-month moving average
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
1-9 employees 10-49 employees All companies
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankChart 2:15
Corporate borrowing form credit institutions and their securities
fundingSEK billion
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Swedish credit institutions Debt securities in Sweden Foreign credit institutionsDebt securities abroad Trade credits
Source: The RiksbankChart 2:16
Corporate borrowing from credit institutions and fixed gross
investmentAnnual percentage change
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Corporate borrowing from credit institutions Forecast borrowing FSR 2009:02Forecast borrowing FSR 2009:01 Gross fixed capital formation
Forecast investments, MPR October Forecast investments, FSR 2009:01
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankChart 2:17
Corporate credit risk, outcome and forecast according to the Riksbank's
main scenarioPer cent
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Sources: Moody's KMV and the RiksbankChart 2:18
Transaction volumes on the Swedish commercial property market
SEK billion
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
Swedish investors Foreign investors
Sources: Savills and the RiksbankChart 2:19
Prices for office premises in Sweden and abroad
Annual percentage change
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
dec-05 jun-06 dec-06 jun-07 dec-07 jun-08 dec-08 jun-09 dec-09
Sweden UK Ireland US
Sources: IPD, Reuters EcoWin, MIT Center for Real Estate, Newsec and the RiksbankChart 2:20
Real prices of office premises in city centres
Index, 1981 = 100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09
Stockholm Göteborg Malmö
Sources: Newsec and the RiksbankChart 2:21
Average yield levels for modern office premises in city centres
Per cent
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
dec-85 dec-88 dec-91 dec-94 dec-97 dec-00 dec-03 dec-06 dec-09
Stockholm Göteborg Malmö Five-year government bond yield
Sources: Newsec and Reuters EcoWinChart 2:22
Real prices and rents of office premises in Stockholm city centre
Annual percentage change
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09
Prices Rents
Sources: Newsec and the RiksbankChart 2:23
Vacancy rate for office premises in city centres
Per cent
0
5
10
15
20
25
87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09
Stockholm Göteborg Malmö
Source: NewsecChart 2:24
Number of employed in the business sector
Annual percentage change
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
Business sector Goods producers Services producers
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankChart 2:25
Expected default frequency (EDF) and share prices for property
companiesIndex, January 2005 = 100 and per cent
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
jan-
05
jan-
06
jan-
07
jan-
08
jan-
09
jan-
10
0,0
0,3
0,6
0,9
1,2
1,5
1,8
CREX (left scale) OMXS (left scale) EDF (right scale)
'09'08'07'06'05
Sources: Moody's KMV Credit Edge, Reuters EcoWin and the RiksbankChart 2:26
House pricesAnnual percentage change
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Germany Denmark Norway Finland Sweden
Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the BISChart 2:27
Companies borrowingsAnnual percentage change
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Germany Denmark Norway Finland Sweden
Sources: ECB and national statistics officesChart 2:28
Households' borrowingsAnnual percentage change
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Germany Denmark Norway Finland Sweden
Sources: ECB and national statistics officesChart 2:29
Expected default frequency for listed non-financial companies
Per cent
0
1
2
3
4
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Germany Denmark Norway Finland Sweden
Sources: Moody's KMV Credit Edge and the RiksbankChart 2:30
Corporate defaultsTwelve month moving average
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
04 05 06 07 08 09 10
0
200
400
600
800
Germany (left scale) Denmark (right scale) Norway (right scale)Finland (right scale) Sweden (right scale)
Sources: National statistics officesChart 2:31
GDPAnnual percentage change
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
Estonia Latvia Lithuania
Source: Reuters EcoWin Chart 2:32
Current accountPercentage of GDP
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
dec-00 dec-01 dec-02 dec-03 dec-04 dec-05 dec-06 dec-07 dec-08 dec-09
Estonia Latvia Lithuania
Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 2:33
UnemploymentPer cent
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Estonia Latvia Lithuania
Source: EurostatChart 2:34
Consumer confidence indicatorNet figures, per cent
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
jan-05 jan-06 jan-07 jan-08 jan-09 jan-10
Estonia Latvia Lithuania
Source: European CommissionChart 2:35
Real exchange rates for the Baltic countries
Index, 2000 = 100
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
dec-00 dec-01 dec-02 dec-03 dec-04 dec-05 dec-06 dec-07 dec-08 dec-09
Estonia Latvia Lithuania
Source: The BISChart 2:36
Nominal wagesAnnual percentage change
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
dec-00 dec-01 dec-02 dec-03 dec-04 dec-05 dec-06 dec-07 dec-08 dec-09
Estonia Latvia Lithuania
Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 2:37
Harmonised index for consumer prices
Annual percentage change
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Estonia Latvia Lithuania
Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 2:38
Household borrowingAnnual percentage change
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
jan-01 jan-02 jan-03 jan-04 jan-05 jan-06 jan-07 jan-08 jan-09 jan-10
Estonia Lativa Lithuania
Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 2:39
Corporate borrowingAnnual percentage change
-20
0
20
40
60
jan-01 jan-02 jan-03 jan-04 jan-05 jan-06 jan-07 jan-08 jan-09 jan-10
Estonia Latvia Lithuania
Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 2:40
Households' and companies' debt in realtion to GDP
Per cent
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
Estonia Latvia Lithuania Sweden
Sources: National central banks and Reuters EcoWinChart 2:41
Late paymentsPer cent of outstanding loans
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
dec-
00
dec-
01
dec-
02
dec-
03
dec-
04
dec-
05
dec-
06
dec-
07
dec-
08
dec-
09
Estonia (more than 60 days) Latvia (more than 90 days) Lithuania (more than 60 days)
Sources: Eesti Pank, Financial and Capital Market Commission and Lietuvos BankasChart 2:42
GDP in constant pricesAnnual percentage change
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Russia Ukraine
Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook DB, Oct 09, Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts, Sep 09, the Riksbank
Chart 2:43
Bank borrowing in foreign and domestic currency in Ukraine
Per cent of nominal GDP
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Foreign currency Domestic currency
Sources: Reuters EcoWin, IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2009, and the RiksbankChart 2:44
Bank borrowing in foreign and domestic currency in Russia
Per cent of nominal GDP
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2006 2007 2008
Foreign currency Domestic currency
Sources: Reuters EcoWin, IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2009, and the RiksbankChart 2:45
The banks' earningsSEK billion
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
sep 05 sep 06 sep 07 sep 08 sep 09
Net interest income Net commission incomeOperations at fair value Other income
Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:1
Lending per geographical area and borrower category, September 2009
Per cent of total lending
0
20
40
60
80
100
Sweden Other Nordiccountries
Baltic countries Other countries Total
Households Companies, excluding property companies Property companies
Sources: Banks reports and the RiksbankChart 3:2
Net interest income in relation to interest-bearing assets
Per cent
1,0
1,1
1,2
1,3
1,4
1,5
1,6
1,7
1,8
1,9
97:4 98:4 99:4 00:4 01:4 02:4 03:4 04:4 05:4 06:4 07:4 08:4 09:4
Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:3
The major banks' securities-related commission income and turnover
and stock market indexIndex, 2003 Q1 = 100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
03:1 04:1 05:1 06:1 07:1 08:1 09:1
Asset management-related income OMX index Turnover OMX Brokerage income
Sources: Bank reports, NASDAQ OMX and the RiksbankChart 3:4
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
SEB Handelsbanken Nordea Swedbank
Loans to public Loans to credit institutions Debt securities Other assets
Allocation of total assetsPer cent, September 2009
Chart 3:5 Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
Market shares of lending in the Baltic countries
Per cent, September 2009
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Estonia Latvia Lithuania
Swedbank SEB Nordea Other
Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:6
The major banks' loan lossesPercentage of lending
-0,6
-0,4
-0,2
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
00
:1
01
:1
02
:1
03
:1
04
:1
05
:1
06
:1
07
:1
08
:1
09
:1
Recoveries and reversals Realised and probable loan losses Loan losses
Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:7
Earnings before loan losses and loan losses (net) in the major banks
Summed up over four quarters, SEK billion, fixed prices, 30 September 2009
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
dec-90 dec-93 dec-96 dec-99 dec-02 dec-05 dec-08 dec-11
Profit before loan losses Loan losses, net Main scenario loan losses, net, FSR 2009:1
Sources: Bank reports, SME Direkt and the RiksbankChart 3:8
Distribution of loan losses per region in the period Q4 2009 to 2011
in the Riksbank's main scenario
SEK billion and per cent
2516%
2919%
3119%
149%
2818%
2919%
Sweden Nordic countries excluding SwedenEstonia LatviaLithuania Other countries
Source: The RiksbankChart 3:9
Total loan losses in the Riksbank's main scenario in relation to lending
Per cent
0
1
2
3
4
5
Handelsbanken Nordea SEB Swedbank Total
Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:10
The core Tier 1 capital ratios of European banks, March 2009
Per cent
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Swedbank SEB
Nordea
SHB
Source: NomuraChart 3:11
Assets in relation to equityPer cent
Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:12
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
jun-04 jun-05 jun-06 jun-07 jun-08 jun-09
European banks Major Swedish banks
The banks' sources of financing, September 2009
Per cent
3% 4%
46%
28%
6%
13%
Credit from the Riksbank
Government-guaranteedborrowing via the SwedishNational Debt OfficeInterbank, net
Covered bonds in SEK
Certificates
Deposits
Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:13
The banks' deposits and lendingSEK billion
Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:14
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
mar-01 mar-02 mar-03 mar-04 mar-05 mar-06 mar-07 mar-08 mar-09 mar-10
Loans Deposits Deposit deficit
The major bank with the lowest Tier 1 capital ratio after another Swedish major bank defaulted on payments
Per cent
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
dec-99 dec-00 dec-01 dec-02 dec-03 dec-04 dec-05 dec-06 dec-07 dec-08 dec-09
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Source: The RiksbankChart 3:15
The bank's Tier 1 and core Tier 1 capital, actual and in the stress test
Per cent
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Handelsbanken Swedbank SEB Nordea
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2009 Kv 3 2009 Kv 4 2010 20112009 Kv 3 2009 Kv 4 2010 2011
Tier 1 capital ratioCore tier 1 capital ratio
Source: The RiksbankChart 3:16
Spread over swap for covered bonds in EUR, five years
Basis points
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
jun-07 dec-07 jun-08 dec-08 jun-09 dec-09
Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the RiksbankChart B15
EUR/SEK cross currency basis spread,
five yearsBasis points
-10
0
10
20
30
40
dec-05 dec-06 dec-07 dec-08 dec-09
Source: BloombergChart B16
Money market basis spread (between 6 months EURIBOR and 3
months EURIBOR), five yearsBasis points
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
dec-05 dec-06 dec-07 dec-08 dec-09
Source: BloombergChart B17
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