foresight 4 food · oils & fats l 3% limit what we should be eating (harvard's healthy...

Food Systems

Contents

• DFID Food Systems Learning Journey

• Foresight4Food Initiative

• South Asia Food Systems / Food Energy Water Nexus

• Farmers and Food Systems – OSF

• IFSTAL

• Principles for Responsible Investment -WBG

• EU Food Systems Interest

• EAT/WEF/WBCSD Food Systems Dialogue

Food security and stability, migration,

transparency

Inclusive Growth

Infrastructure and

innovation key to ag

Large employe

r

Water use, on farm solar

Reducing water use in ag, reducing pollution

Ag is key to empowerment

Food and Nutrition security

Healthy Diet

Paying for education

Sustainably feeding cities

Ag impact on biodiversity and

soils

Demand on fisheries,

healthy diets

Food waste

Climate resilient ag, reducing

agifoodemissions

Inclusive Growth

Governance of food systems

Food

Systems

DFID

• Purchased food, urbanization and nutrtion

• Food systems in areas of protracted crises

• Realising the inclusive economic value of agri-food systems

• Impact of food crisis on most vulnerable

• Impact of climate and resource decline on food systems

Foresight4FoodForesgiht4food.net

Food Systems include a set of ‘Activities’ …

Source: The Institute of Medicine & The National Research Council of the National Academies, 2015

… and who all operate influenceda range of ‘Environments’ that drive actor motives.

Or just to attempt to integrate everything!

Migration

Violence

Unemployment

Health costs

Poor diet

Disease

Low productivity

Degraded / overused resources Climate impacts

Lower yields Erratic production levels

Food shortagesPrice spikes

Disease outbreaks

Trade restrictions

Poverty

Competition for resources

Security

Systemic Risks

Environment

Health

Reduced investment

Weakened economy

FOODGender inequality

Mega Trends

•Population

•Urbanization

•Diet

•Climate

•Resource decline

18 29 16 30 37 25 60 54 45

Rapid urbanization & rising middle class…

Projected urban share of global population

Urban

67%

20502014

Urban54%

Source: Ruel et al. 2017

• Nearly 90% of projected urban population increase is concentrated in Asia

and Africa

• China, India, and Nigeria alone expected to add 900 million urban residents

Source: OECD 2010

0

20

40

60

80

2009 2020 2030

North America Europe

Central and South America Asia Pacific

Share of global middle class, 2009-2030 (%)

Source: UN 2014

V

Fruits & Vegetables49%

Cereals and Starches

20%

Milk & Milk Products8%

Meat, fish, eggs, beans20%

VE

G

OIL

Oils & Fats3%

Limit

What we should be eating (Harvard's Healthy Eating Plate Model)

What we are actually producing (According to 2011 FAO)

Fruits & Vegetables

11%

Cereals and Starches47%

VEGOIL

Oils & Fats11%

Sugar16%

Milk and Milk Products4%

Meat, fish, eggs, beans11%

WHO< 5% Evan Fraser, Guelph, FBS analysis, 2015

The Lancet Volume 387, Issue 10026, Pages 1377-1396 (April 2016)

Very very obeseVery obeseObeseOverweightNormalLow normalUnderweight

Trends in age-standardised

prevalence of BMI categories

in women, global

Global malnourishment: the food system doesn’t deliver health through diets

Bajzelj et al (2013)

Supply chain logistics

11% cereals trade

60% US grain export

26% cereals trade~20% fertilisers

14% cereals trade

14% cereals trade~25% fertilisers(50% China’s soy and wheat)

Global markets affect local events

Knowledge Base to Inform Analysis and

Dialogue (5)eg

Actors - their Values and Interests (2)

Understanding the System of Analysis (7)

Trends & Drivers in the System (8)

Scenarios (9)Visions (10)

Influencing Change (11)

Stak

eho

lder

En

gage

men

t(4

)

Part

icip

ato

ry M

eth

od

s an

d t

oo

ls (

6)

Quantitative Modelling

Qualitative analysis and insight from actors

Stakeholder analysis

Empirical Evidence

Framework for Understanding Foresight and Scenario Analysis

Real World Situation (1)

Systems analysis

Purpose and Motivation for Foresight (3)

Note: Numbers are for textual description of the framework and are not a series of steps. The elements of foresight may be implemented concurrently and/or iteratively

Game Theory(how actors may respond)

Data Sets

Woodhill 2018

Rubics Cube of Food Systems Transformation

South Asia Food energy water nexus

Farmers and Food Systems Project

• 12 month project funded by Open Society Foundation

• Updated perspective on long term future for small-scale agriculture in global food system

• What are the systemic risks?

• What are the transformational opportunities?

• Case studies in Zambia and Ghana

• Exploring foresight, scenario and systems methodology with OSF partners

• Providing analysis for OSF on future programming

Taking a System View

Smallholder Production value

adding and Marketing Systems

Rural Livelihoods

Policy Influences & Natural Resources &

Climate Change

Consumption

Food Market Systems Global

RegionalNational

Local DriversTrends IssuesOpportunities

Large Scale farming

How will population, urbanization and diet

change

Who will produce?What will be traded?

How will business models change?

What is a living income?What are non-farm

incomes?Living income

Transformation of Small-Scale Agriculture

Stepping Up

Hanging-In

Moving-out

Policies to support small-scale farmers to be commercial and competitive

Policies to help farmers trade-up or move out

Social protection to help those in poverty

Policies to create decent jobs and provide skills

Social protection to help those in poverty

What scale of change over what period makes sense ?

Getting the Policy Mix RightLiving income

Principles for Responsible INvestment

Implementation Pathways

Institutional Embedding

Mobilizing Understanding, Commitment and Capacity

3) Support by Development and Multi-

Lateral agencies

6) Embedding in Standards for Private and Public Financing

5) Embedding in Government Policy,

Regulation, Programmes and

Funding

1) Promotion by Business and Multi-stakeholder

Platforms andRound Tables

2) Advocacy by Civil Society and Consumer

Groups

4) Embedding in Public and Private

Standards for Sourcing and Trade

Application in Business Operations

9) Integration into Business Operations

of Regional and Domestic Firms / SMEs / Producers

7) Integration into Business Operations

of Global Firms

8) Integration into Coordinated Supply

Chain and Sector Initiatives

Kn

ow

Ho

w

Incentives

Know How

Ince

nti

ves

Kn

ow

Ho

w

Ince

nti

ves

Conditions and Processes for Implementation

Principles

Stakeholder Engagement

Capabilityfor Policy

Development And for Technical Implementation

Embeddingin Policies,

Standards, and Processes

Use in Decision Making and Operations

Monitoring Use and Impacts

Incentives • Profitability• Access to finance• Reputational• Reliability of supply• Competitive• Legal

Governance• Global transparency and

accountability• International commitments

and agreements• Stakeholder consultation• Regional collaboration• National decision making• Private sector processes

EU Food systems

EAT/WEF/WBCSD Food Systems Dialogue

V

Fruits & Vegetables49%

Cereals and Starches

20%

Milk & Milk Products8%

Meat, fish, eggs, beans20%

VE

G

OIL

Oils & Fats3%

Limit

What we should be eating (Harvard's Healthy Eating Plate Model)

What we are actually producing (According to 2011 FAO)

Fruits & Vegetables

11%

Cereals and Starches47%

VEGOIL

Oils & Fats11%

Sugar16%

Milk and Milk Products4%

Meat, fish, eggs, beans11%

WHO< 5% Evan Fraser, Guelph, FBS analysis, 2015

Rapid urbanization & rising middle class…

Projected urban share of global population

Urban

67%

20502014

Urban54%

Source: Ruel et al. 2017

• Nearly 90% of projected urban population increase is concentrated in Asia

and Africa

• China, India, and Nigeria alone expected to add 900 million urban residents

Source: OECD 2010

0

20

40

60

80

2009 2020 2030

North America Europe

Central and South America Asia Pacific

Share of global middle class, 2009-2030 (%)

Source: UN 2014

The Lancet Volume 387, Issue 10026, Pages 1377-1396 (April 2016)

Very very obeseVery obeseObeseOverweightNormalLow normalUnderweight

Trends in age-standardised

prevalence of BMI categories

in women, global

Global malnourishment: the food system doesn’t deliver health through diets

Bajzelj et al (2013)

Supply chain logistics

11% cereals trade

60% US grain export

26% cereals trade~20% fertilisers

14% cereals trade

14% cereals trade~25% fertilisers(50% China’s soy and wheat)

Global markets affect local events

Emerging Issues

•Food safety

•Health costs

•Antimicrobial resistance

•Disease and pest outbreaks

•Food Crises

Technological innovations

Scale-up new, multiple-win technologies

Source: WEF 2018

Blockchain-enabled traceability

• Enhances transparency & traceability of the

food supply chain, land tenure, payments, etc.

• Reduces transaction costs

At the same time, need to consider the impact of these technologies

on smallholders, children’s nutrition, jobs, etc.

Food-sensing technology

• Contributes to reducing domestic food waste

• Identifies pathogens to improve food safety &

prevent costly product recalls

Alternative proteins

• Can help reduce agricultural GHG emissions

and fresh water withdrawals

• Also alleviate health risks associated with meat

consumption

Gene editing for seed improvements

• Can help produce more crops and increase

farmer incomes

• Also improve nutrition outcomes

What is a Small-Scale Farmer?

• Different land size

• Different assets

• Different incomes

• Different locations

• Different access to markets

• Different skills

• Different livelihoods (sources of income)

• Different interests and motivations

Business models

If Ghana is heading to a population of over 50 million that is 80% urbanized what different business models will emerge for small-scale farmers?

From Production Needs to Business Model Thinking

Business Model Canvass

Question

• In groups of three discuss what you see as different business models that could emerge over the next 20 years that would benefit smale-scale farmers?

• Who would they be selling to?

• How would the market be organized?

• How would aggregation to achieve economies of scale be organized?