food security and nutrition analysis unit -somalia
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EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit -Somalia
Post Gu ’ 09 Assessment AnalysisFSEDC Meeting
August 21, 2009
Nairobi, Kenya
FSNAU Post Gu ’09 AssessmentOverall Timeline
FSNAU Gu ’09 AssessmentPartner Participation
Total Number of People Field (FS) & Workshop – Total 111
Local Authority 10Ministries 13Local NGOs 42International NGOs 12UN Agencies 35
REGIONNGO Government UN & Int’l TOTAL
Local Int’l MinistriesLocal
AuthoritiesGedo 10 1 4 1 16
Bakol 10 2 12
Central Region 4 6 1 11
Hiran 2 1 1 4
Middle Shabelle 1 3 4
Lower Shabelle
Northeast 1 7 3 11
Northwest 10 2 6 3 21
Juba Valley 4 3 2 9
Total 41 11 13 10 13 88
Analysis Workshop - Total 23
FEWSNET 3JRC-MARS 2WFP 14OCHA 2CEFA 1DEG GARAS 1
Total Number of Participating Partner Agencies (FS + Nut) 102
Local NGOs 47Int’l NGO’s 20Local Authority 12Ministries 15UN 5Int’l 3
Number of People Participating by Agency Food Security Field Assessment - Total 88
Gu ’08/09 Assessment Access and
Field Monitoring Locations
A.Sector Analysis
Summary Results
Gu ‘09 Seasonal Rains•Start on time (late March/ early April)•Ended early - in mid May in many parts of the country•Overall Performance - mixed, but largely below normal, especially in key pastoral regions of the north and central•Areas of Poor Rainfall:
Hiran, Galgadud, Mudug, Sool, Nugal, Togdheer, Sanaag and parts of Galbeed Parts of Lower Juba, North Gedo, and northern parts of Bakool
•Areas of Near Normal Rainfall Bay, Middle Juba, Lower and Middle ShabelleParts of Bakool, and south Gedo
Hagaa Seasonal Rains Good hagaa rains in Juba, and Shabelle and parts of Bay regionsJuba and Shabelle planted off season crop (maize and sesame).
Shabelle & Juba River Levels - below normal rainfall in Ethiopian highlands
Rain failure in northern Kenya – leading to abnormal livestock in-migration into Juba
ClimatePerformance of the Gu ’09 Rains
Source: FSAU /FEWSNET
NVDI AVHRR Anomaly June, 2009
Crop/vegetation condition has been good in Bay, Juba and Shabelle
Climate
Nugaal Valley, Vegetation conditions (NDVI) July 1981- June 2009
Emerging Drought in Northern Pastoral Areas
• Three consecutive seasons of below-normal rainfall – emerging drought• Pasture and grazing conditions deteriorated to an alarming degree, • NDVI 36-month average deviation normal; lower than 1990/92 & 2001/03 droughts
Climate
Deepening Drought in Central Pastoral Areas
Climate
Source: FSNAU & Protection Cluster
Civil Insecurity
Civil Insecurity Trends (Jan. – July ‘09)Precarious and mixed situation (Jan. – April)
• Slight improvement in some areas, but further deterioration in other areas
Deterioration Since May ‘09
1.Worsened in several areas of southern and central Somalia including Mogadishu, Belet Weyne, Elbur and Hara-dhere
2.With significant impact on both urban and rural
3.Fresh fighting exploded in Mogadishu between insurgents and the Transitional Federal Government (TFG),
4.Worst fighting seen in months, causing both civilian deaths and massive displacement within the country and towards refugee camps of Kenya
5.Main impact is in the main towns and on humanitarian operations
Civil Insecurity
Deterioration Since May ‘09
5. Resource-based conflict between clans and sub-clans, especially in drought areas (e.g. Central)
5. Improved Access and security situation of the ordinary people improved in some areas (e.g. L. Shabelle)
6. Continued Incidents of sea piracy have since January, despite multinational naval forces and efforts of the local people
Ongoing & Likely to Increase:
Direct Impacts
•Deaths, Injuries, human rights abuses
•Destruction of Assets (Public & Private)
•Increased Population Displacement – 1.4 million IDPs (40% increase since Jan. ‘09)
•Direct targeting of humanitarian and reduction of aid workers and responses
Indirect Impact:
• Disruptions of trade within the country and across regional borders (for example Ethiopia-Somalia) and likely price increase
• Restrictions of livestock migration between clans boundaries in Central/ Hiran/parts of M. Shabelle and difficult of the natural resource sharing (water, pasture and grazing)
• Further restrictions of humanitarian space
• Declining social support among livelihoods and wealth groups
Civil InsecurityMost Likely Scenario
(July- Dec. ’09)
Increased Likelihood of further Confrontation between different religious forces and TFG and different clans
Increased localized civil insecurity and clan tensions
Increased resource based conflicts, banditry and marine piracy
Kenyan border closure affecting IDP population movement and cross border trade mainly cattle and other commodities
Main Areas of Risk: Mogadishu, Bay, Bakool, Middle and Lower Shabelle, Hiran, Galgadud, Mudug including Galkacyo, Gedo and Juba regions
Main Impact: Mainly urban areas and trade movements in conflict areas, more limited direct impact on rural populations.
Somalia: Rangeland Conditions and
Livestock MigrationJuly ‘09
Livestock
Livestock SectorTrends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production
Region Conception (Gu ‘09)
Calving/kidding (Gu ‘09)
Milk production (Gu ‘09)
Expected calving/ kidding July- Dec ’09
Trends in Herd Size (Dec ‘09)
Livelihoods Livestock species
Gedo Camel & Cattle: Low Sheep/Goats: Medium
Camel: LowCattle: None Sheep/Goats: Low
Below Average for All species
Camel: low Cattle: NoneSh/goats: Medium
Southern Inland Pastoral Camel: Same (Above Baseline)Sheep/goats: Slight decreased (Below Baseline)
Southern Agro-pastoral Camel: Same (Above Baseline)Cattle: Decrease (Below Baseline)Sheep/goats: Slight Decrease (Below Baseline)
Dawa Pastoral Camel: Same (Near Baseline)Cattle: Decrease (Below Baseline)Sheep/goats: Slight decrease (Below Baseline)
Juba Camel: Low Cattle: Low to NoneSheep/Goats: Medium
Camel: LowCattle: mediumSheep/Goats: Medium
Camel: lowCattle: NoneSheep/Goat: None
Camel: Medium Cattle: Low to NoneSh/goats: Medium
Southeast Pastoral Cattle: decrease (Below Baseline)Sheep/goats: Increase (Below Baseline)
Southern Inland Pastoral Camel: Increase (Above Baseline)Sheep/goats: Increase (Below Baseline)
Juba Agro-pastoral Cattle: decrease (Below Baseline)Sheep/goats: Increase (Below Baseline)
Bakool
Camel: Low Cattle: None Sh/Goats: Medium
Camel: NoneCattle: NoneSh/Goats: Low to Medium
Camel: LowCattle: NoneSh/Goats: Low
Low for All species
Southern Inland Pastoral Camel: Decrease (Below Baseline)Sheep/goats: Decrease (Below Baseline)
B/Bakool Agro-pastoral Cattle: Decreased (Below Baseline) Sheep/goats: Decreased (Below Baseline)
Bay Camel: LowCattle: LowSh/Goats: Medium
Camel: LowCattle: Medium Sh/Goats: Medium to High
Camel: AverageCattle: LowSh/Goats: Average
Medium for all species
Southern Agro-pastoralCattle: Increase (Same as Baseline)Sheep/goats: Increased (Same as Baseline)
M/L Shabelle
L/Sh: Average for all species M.Sh: Low for all species
L/Sh: Average for all species M.Sh: Cattle, camel: Low Sh/goats: Medium to Low
M/Sh: Cattle, Goats: Below average Camel: AverageL/Sh: Average
M/Sh: Camel : MediumSh/goats: lowCattle: LowL/Sh: Average
Shabelle Agro-pastoral L/Shabelle: Increased all speciesM/Shabelle: Camel: increase Cattle &Sheep: Decreased (high deaths resulted from poor pasture & endemic disease)
Livestock SectorTrends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production
Region Conception (Gu ‘09)
Calving/kidding (Gu ‘09)
Milk production (Gu ‘09)
Expected calving/ kidding July – Dec ‘09
Heard Size Recovery Projected at (Dec ‘09)
Livelihoods Livestock species
Hiiran Camel: Low Cattle: NoneSh/Goats: Medium to high
Camel: None to lowCattle: NoneSh/Goats: Medium to High
poor all species Camel: LowCattle: NoneGoat/sheep: Medium to High
Hawd Pastoral Camel: Same (Below Baseline)Sh/Goats: Increase (Below Baseline)
Southern Inland Pastoral
Camel: Same (Below Baseline)Cattle: Decrease (Below Baseline)Goats: Increase (Below Baseline)
Galgaduud & south Mudug
None for All species
Camel: NoneCattle: NoneSheep/goats: None to low
Very poor for all species
Camel: None Cattle: NoneSheep/goats: None
Addun Pastoral Camel: Decrease (Below Baseline)Cattle: Decrease (Below Baseline)Goats: Decrease (Below Baseline)
Hawd Pastoral Camel: Decreased (Below Baseline)Goats: Increased (Below Baseline)
Northeast Camel: None to LowSh/Goats: Medium to Low
Camel: none to LowSheep/Goats: Medium to Low
Camel: Poor (Bari), Very poor in Mudug & Nugal regionsSh/Goats: Avearge (Bari), Poor (Mudg & Nugal)
Camel: Medium(Bari), None ( Mudug & Nugal)Sh/Goats: Medium to Low
Hawd Pastoral Camel: decrease ( Below Baseline) Goats: Increase (Below Baseline)
Nugal Pastoral Camel: Decrease (Same as Baseline) Sh/goats: Increased (Above Baseline)
Sool Pastoral Camel: increase (below baseline) Sh/goats: Increase (Above Baseline)
Addun Pastoral Camel: Decrease ( Below Baseline)Sh/goats: Slight increase ( below Baseline)
Northwest Camel: NoneSh/Goats: Nugal Valley/Sool Plateau: LowHawd/Golis Guban: Medium
Camel: NoneSh/goats: High to Medium
Extremely Below Average for all species
Camel: High to Medium except Nugal and Sool Plateau: LowSh/Goats: Medium (Hawd, Golis/Guban) Low (Sool Plateau/Nugal valley
Hawd Pastoral Camel: Increase (Above Baseline)Sh/goats: Decreased (Near Baseline)
Guban/Golis Pastoral
Camel: Increase(Above Baseline) Sh/goats: Slight Increase (Below Baseline)
Sool Pastoral Camel: same (below baseline)Sh/goats: Decrease (Near baseline)
LivestockWater Availability
Water trucked in Hawd Hargeisa Early depletion of water–SIP AfmadowEmpty Communal Dam in Hawd AbudwaK
Dasa empty water catchment – Elwaq - Gedo
Empty Berkads– Sool Plateau - Qardho
Empty Teed communal water catchment- North Huddur
LivestockPastoral Migration Using Different Means of Transport
Motorized out migration from Nugal ValleyIn migration from Gedo Using Pack camels
Afmadow Southeast Pastoral using Gedo
Middle Shebelle migrating from to L/Shebelle
Afmadow Southeast Pastoral using Ox
LivestockLivestock Body Conditions & Pasture: Camel & Cattle
Emaciated camel body condition in Dh/mareeb
Poor pasture & camel body condition in Nugal Valley
Average cattle body condition in Juba
Dead sheep Agropastoral W/Galbeed Good camel calving at Qorioley/L. Shebelle Poor camel body condition–B/Jajdid/Tayeglow
Livestock
Livestock
Regional Average Monthly Prices Local Quality Goat (SoSh/SLSh)
Trends in Local Cattle Prices
Regional Trend in Local Goat Prices and Terms of Trade
Livestock
LivestockTrends in Livestock Exports – Berbera & Bossaso
Total Annual Livestock Exports Compared to 5 year Average
Berbera & Bossaso: Trend in Livestock Exports (Heads) and Export Quality Goat Prices (US$)
LivestockCarcass Meat Exported: Jan – Jul. 2009
Month Burao Beletweyne Mogadishu Galkayo
January 7030 Data not available Data not available 5,086
February 7100 Data not available Data not available 4,143
March 7000 Data not available Data not available 5,511
April 5700 Data not available Data not available 4,200
May 6,300 Data not available Data not available 4,387
June 6,410 Data not available Data not available 5,060
July 6.700 Data not available Data not available 3,110
Total 46.240 Data not available Data not available 31,497
AgricultureGu ‘09 Cereal Production in Southern Somalia
Regions
Gu 2009 Production in MTGu 2009 as
% of Gu 2008
Gu 2009 as % of Gu PWA(1995-2008)
Gu 2009 as % of 5 year average
(2004-2008)Maize Sorghum Total Cereal
Bakol 100 400 500 484% 23% 76%Bay 3,800 34,500 38,300 113% 106% 167%Gedo 1,300 100 1,400 148% 26% 67%Hiran 300 500 800 38% 20% 38%
Juba Dhexe (Middle)
10,300 10,100 20,400 817% 242% 727%
Juba Hoose (Lower)
600 0 600 12% 10% 29%
Shabelle Dhexe (Middle)
5,200 1,800 7,000 129% 44% 50%
Shabelle Hoose (Lower)
64,100 8,300 72,400 218% 118% 170%
Gu 2009 Total 85,700 55,700 141,400 170% 102% 158%
Gu’07 Cereal Prodction Estimates in Southern Somalia
AgricultureRice and Off-Season Cereal Estimates in Southern Somalia
Regions
Off Season : Sept – Oct. 2009
Maize (MT) Total Cereal
Juba Dhexe (Middle) 1,625 1,625
Juba Hoose (Lower) 12,509 12,509
Total 14,134 14,134
Region Gu ‘09 Rice
Production Estimates (MT)
Gu ‘09 Rice production as % of Gu
‘08 Rice Production
Shabelle Dhexe (Middle) – Jawhar Only
2,400 120%
Total 2,400 120%
AgricultureCereal Production Plus Off-Season in Southern Somalia
Regions
Gu 2009 Production in MT Gu 2009 as % of Gu
2008
Gu 2009 as % of Gu
PWA(1995-2008)
Gu 2009 as % of 5 year
average(2004-2008)Maize Sorghum Total Cereal
Bakol 100 400 500 484% 23% 76%
Bay 3,800 34,500 38,300 113% 106% 167%
Gedo 1,300 100 1,400 148% 26% 67%
Hiran 300 500 800 38% 20% 38%
Juba Dhexe (Middle)
11,900 10,100 22,000 882% 256% 665%
Juba Hoose (Lower)
13,100 0 13,100 261% 227% 554%
Shabelle Dhexe (Middle)
5,200 1,800 7,000 129% 44% 50%
Shabelle Hoose (Lower)
64,100 8,300 72,400 140% 115% 156%
Gu 2009 Total 99,800 55,700 155,500 153% 111% 166%
AgricultureTrends in Cereal Production (no off season) , Southern Somalia
Gu Cereal Production Trends
(1995 – 2009)
Annual Cereal Production
Trends (1995 – 2009)
Regional Contribution Gu ’09 Cereal Production
Maize Production Gu’09 Regional Contribution
AgricultureRegional Cereal Contributions
Sorghum Production Gu’09 Regional Contribution
AgricultureGu Karan Crop Establishment Estimates
Regions
Gu 2009 Production in MTGu-Karan
2009 as % of Gu-Karan
2008
Gu-Karan 2009 as % of
Gu-Karan PWA
(1998-2008)
Gu-Karan 2009 as % of 5 year average(2004-2008)Maize Sorghum Total Cereal
Awdal 15 720 735 47% 23% 19%
Togdheer 3 202 205 23% 36% 21%
Woqooyi Galbeed 25 5,640 5,665 38% 38% 33%
Gu-Karan 2009 Total
43 6,562 6,605 38% 36% 30%
AgricultureTrends in Gu-Karan Cereal Production, Somaliland
AgricultureGu ‘09 Poor Crops
1. Poor Sorghum Establishment. Garabis, Hargeysa, W. Galbeed, July ’09
2. Sorghum Crop Failure with limited fodder harvested by the Owner. Bulo Burte, Hiran, July ‘09.
3. Poor Riverine Maize Crop due to water stress. Moyka village, Jowhar, M. Shabelle, July ‘09
1
2
3
AgricultureGu ‘09 Off-Season Good Crops
1. Good Sorghum Crop. Finka Weer, Sakow,M. Juba, July,’09
2. Good Rainfed Maize Crop. K50, Marka, L. Shabelle, July 2009
3. Good Sorghum Crop. Boodaale, Burhakaba, Bay, July ‘09.
1
2
3
AgricultureCash Crop Production Estimates in Southern Somalia
Regions Gu 2009 Production in MT
Cowpea SesameGround
NutOff-Season
CowpeaOff-Season
SesameTotal
Bakol - - - - - -
Bay 2,060 1,073 1,725 - - 4,858
Gedo 25 - - - - 25
Hiran - - - - - -
Juba Dhexe (Middle)
312 3,012 - 140 660 4,124
Juba Hoose (Lower)
32 29 - 662 1,240 1,964
Shabelle Dhexe (Middle)
380 300 - - - 680
Shabelle Hoose (Lower)
3,200 890 - - - 4,090
Gu 2009 Total 6,009 5,304 1,725 802 1,900 15,740
AgricultureGu ‘09 Cash Crops and Other income Activities
Good Rain-fed Sesame Crop. Sakow, Middle Juba, July ‘09
Vegetable production_Middle shabelle
Fodder Collection, Jowhar,
M. Shabelle, July ’09.
Fodder Market. Jowhar. Miiddle Shabelle, July ‘09
Good Lettuce and Rice Crop behind. Jowhar, Middle Shabelle, July ‘09.
Good Banana and Cucumber Crops. Jilib, Middle Juba, July ‘09.
Agriculture
Cereal Flow Map
AgricultureCommercial Cereal Import Trends (2005-2008)
MT 2009 (Jan. –July)
• 417,534 MT
• 118% of year 2008 (352,385MT)
• 99% of 3-year average (423,085MT)
Local Cereal Production and Food Aid Availability in Southern Regions
AgricultureAnnual Cereal Balance Sheet – June 2009 to May 2010
Annual Cereal Balance Sheet for Somalia
(June 2009 to May 2010)
CEREAL BALANCE SHEET AT JULY ‘09
100% Net Commercial Imports(‘000MT)
75% Net Commercial Imports(‘000MT)
DOMESTIC AVAILABILITY 276Opening Stocks 16Domestic Cereal Supply ’09/10 260Gu 2009 144Gu Karan 2009 Northwest 7Off-season Gu 2009 14Estimated Deyr 09/10 95DOMESTIC UTILISATION
Cereal Utilization Requirements 636IMPORT REQUIREMENTS
Anticipated Commercial Imports 423 317ESTIMATED SURPLUS/DEFICIT CEREAL 63 -43Stocks, Transit and Pipeline
WFPICRC
119 119
1163
1163
ESTIMATED SURPLUS/DEFICIT CEREAL
182 76
AgricultureRegional Trends in Cereal Prices & Terms of Trade
Regional Trend in
Cereal Prices
(SoSh/SLSH)
Regional Trend in Terms of Trade: Cereal to Labor
(kg of cereal/daily wage)
Trends in Exchange Rates
Factors Affecting:
Depreciation – Since Jan. ’07 to Sept ‘08
• Excessive printing of SoSh
•High demand of USD
• Low remittance
• Lack of confidence in Somali Shilling
• Speculation and expectations
Appreciation – Since Oct. ‘08
•Significant increase in USD
o Piracy
o Proceeds from livestock sales
• Cessation SOSH printing
• Slowdown of business activities and exports
Markets
Monthly Exchange Rates - SoSh and SlSh to USD
Imported Commodity Prices Compared to Exchange Rates
Factors affecting Commercial Import Prices
• Devaluation of SoSh (Imports expensive)
• Increased Global Prices
• High Importation Costs (Piracy/Fuel/Taxes)
• High Transportation Costs
• Low Supply
• Disrupted Market Activities
• Reduced Trade Flows
• Low Substitute Commodity
• Trade Collusion
• Tariffs and Taxations
Markets
Shabelle Region: Trend in Imported Commodity Prices compared to Exchange Rate
Central: Imported Commodity Prices compared to Exchange Rate
MarketsConsumer Price Index (Min. Expenditure
Basket)
MarketsTrends in Cereal Prices, Wage Rates and TOT (SoSh)
Northeast
South
Comparison of Rice Price in Mogadishu and International Asia Markets; January 2007 – July 2009
Markets
Impact of Gu ’09 Performance on Gender
• During normal seasons most pastoral activities (e.g. looking after animals, fetching water and firewood, sale of livestock products and food purchase) are done by women, while these are managed by men during dry seasons
• Huge livestock migration (including lactating animals) in search of pasture and water resulted in family splitting with women and children remaining behind
Abandoned women and children in the drought affected settlements, Hawd of Sool, July ‘09
Jidbaale, July‘09Qandhicilay, July‘09Jidbaale, July‘09
Main effects on women:
• Lack of milk production/consumption, affecting the nutritional status of women and children as evidenced by nutritional surveys (‘ critical to very critical’ situation in Gedo, Central/Hiran, northern Bakool)
• Loss of control on the income from productive activities, such as livestock product & crop sales
• Lack of access to the social support for women left behind
• Increased burden due to fetching water, fuel and wood from long distances
Continued…
%
Nutrition Overview Gu ’09
NutritionNutrition Information Sources Gu ’09 (April – July)
Nutrition Surveys• 33 detailed nutrition surveys conducted (All FSNAU includes, 23 SMART, 4 LQAS, 5 exhaustive)• 17 focused on repeating livelihood level surveys from 6 and 12 months ago for South Central • 3 focused on concerning areas in northwest / northeast from Deyr analysis • 4 focused on district / regional (Belet Weyne, Adale, Galgadud & Mudug)• 8 focused on IDP populations (Hargeisa, Berbera, Burao, Garowe, Gardo, Galkahyo, Bossasso, Afgooye & Merka) • 1 focused on vulnerable urban populations (Bossasso)
Rapid Assessments using MUAC: (137 sites & 11,904 children 6-59months) Predominantly, NW. NE, Mogadishu & Belet Weyne Conducted in 46 urban centres (n=4740) Conducted in 91 rural settlements (n=7164)
Health Centre Monitoring• Collected from 100 health centres from all regions (irregular in places e.g. Bakool)
Related Selective Feeding Centre Data• Information from partners: Central, Hiran, Bakool, Bay, Juba and Mogadishu –patchy and limited due to interrupted
programming e.g. IMC, ACF
Secondary Related Data (risk factors for deterioration)• Disease outbreaks e.g. malaria, AWD outbreaks, Hiran, Central, NE, NW• Programme access disruption: Bakool, Bay, Central, Gedo• Displacement; in and out of Mogadishu
Summary of Key FindingsNorthwest :
Confirmation of improvement in West
Golis from Very Critical to Serious. Critical in East
Golis and Guban & Karkar. Serious with risk to deterioration in other
areas, still concerns IDP. Hot spot in south
Toghdeer
Northeast: Deterioration to Critical in
Guban & Karkar and Serious in Nugal. IDP
populations remain Very Critical.
Bay/ Bakool: Bay agropastoral deterioration to
Very Critical, Bakool agropastoral improvement to Serious and Bakool Pastoral
sustained Very Critical.
Shabelles:Sustained Serious in IDPs and riverine slight deterioration (not sig) to Critical in Agropastoral.
Rapid MUAC assessment shows Very Critical in
Mogadishu.
Central & Hiran:Sustained Critical in
Addun, and Hawd (slight improvement in Hawd but not sig.) Cow pea belt and
Coastal Deeh stable at Serious.
Hiran sustained Critical in riverine and Very Critical
(deterioration) in agro pastoral.
Gedo: Sustained Very Critical in pastoral &
riverine. Slight improvement to Critical
in agropastoral
Juba – Deterioration to Very Critical in agropastoral and
pastoral – likely linked to disease outbreak – stable in riverine at
Serious
Gu 2009 Nutrition Survey Results Overview
Crude and Under 5 yrs mortality rates generally stable with exception of Shabelle AP, Juba AP & Riverine and Gedo AP
which were at alert levels
NutritionTrends in levels of Global Acute Malnutrition
(WHO GS) – Gu 2009
The national median rate is 19% GAM and
4.6% SAM , which means almost 1 in 5
children acutely malnourished and 1 in
20 severely malnourished.
NutritionTrends in levels of Stunting and Wasting (WHO GS) – Gu 2009
Consider the difference in NW
(11%) and Sth Central (32%) !!!
Nutrition Situation Estimates - MapsNutrition Situation Estimates, July 2009Nutrition Situation Estimates, January 2009
SummarySouth / Central:
•Overall mixed picture, still high levels of nutritional vulnerability,
• Particular concern over areas with Very Critical, Gedo, Juba, Bay, Bakool, parts of Hiran and Mogadishu – in many areas more likely linked to disease rather than food access
•Lack of further deterioration in Central likely linked to humanitarian interventions – however populations still vulnerable
• However significant decreasing humanitarian space for agencies to meet to provide programmes, fewer partners – risk factor for further deterioration – e.g. Central & Bakool
Northwest/ Northeast populations:
•Overall mixed picture
•West Golis recovery likely linked to returning livestock, increased access to milk and humanitarian interventions
• East Golis & Guban/ Karkar now of concern due to Critical rates
•Deterioration in Sool, Nugal and Hawd likely as a result of decreasing food security
•All IDP populations continue to be very nutritionally vulnerable
•More opportunities for response – improvement in vaccination coverage due to CHD
Major contributing cases continue to be disease
(esp AWD) –due to WASH deficiencies, poor IYCF, and limited health services –exacerbated by poor dietary quality
Major contributing cases for IDPs continue to be disease,
poor IYCF, and limited health services –
exacerbated by poor dietary quality - for rural areas
more linked to food insecurity
B. Current Food &Livelihood Security
Phase Classifications
Summary Results
Somalia Integrated Food Security Phase Classification
Rural IPC PopulationsJuly – December 2009
Rural IPC PopulationsJanuary – June 2009
Somalia Integrated Food Security Phase Classification
Urban and IDP IPC PopulationsJanuary – June 2009
Urban and IDP IPC PopulationsJuly – December 2009
Somalia Integrated Food Security Phase Classification
Rural, Urban and IDP Combined IPC PopulationsJanuary – June 2009
Rural, Urban and IDP Combined IPC PopulationsJuly – December 2009
Rural, Urban & IDP Populations in Crisis, July - December 2009
RegionUNDP 2005
Total Population
UNDP 2005 Urban
Population
UNDP 2005 Rural Population
Urban in Acute Food and
Livelihood Crisis (AFLC)
Rural in Acute Food and
Livelihood Crisis (AFLC)
Urban in Humanitarian
Emergency (HE)
Rural Humanitarian
Emergency (HE)
Total in AFLC and HE as % of Total
population
North Awdal 305,455 110,942 194,513 5,000 25,000 0 0 10Woqooyi Galbeed 700,345 490,432 209,913 55,000 30,000 0 0 12
Togdheer 402,295 123,402 278,893 55,000 75,000 20,000 5,000 39Sanaag 270,367 56,079 214,288 20,000 75,000 5,000 15,000 43Sool 150,277 39,134 111,143 15,000 35,000 5,000 0 37Bari 367,638 179,633 202,737 80,000 0 25,000 0 29Nugaal 145,341 54,749 75,860 25,000 15,000 0 5,000 31
Sub-total 2,341,718 1,054,371 1,287,347 255,000 255,000 55,000 25,000 25
Central Mudug 350,099 94,405 255,694 30,000 40,000 0 110,000 51Galgaduud 330,057 58,977 271,080 15,000 35,000 10,000 200,000 79
Sub-total 680,156 153,382 526,774 45,000 75,000 10,000 310,000 65South Hiraan 329,811 69,113 260,698 25,000 35,000 5,000 160,000 68
Shabelle Dhexe (Middle) 514,901 95,831 419,070 25,000 60,000 0 160,000 48
Shabelle Hoose (Lower) 850,651 172,714 677,937 35,000 50,000 10,000 5,000 12
Bakool 310,627 61,438 249,189 25,000 65,000 0 70,000 52Bay 620,562 126,813 493,749 20,000 5,000 0 5,000 5Gedo 328,378 81,302 247,076 30,000 80,000 0 40,000 46
Juba Dhexe (Middle) 238,877 54,739 184,138 10,000 5,000 0 0 6
Juba Hoose (Lower) 385,790 124,682 261,108 20,000 10,000 0 0 8
Sub-total 3,579,597 786,632 2,792,965 190,000 310,000 15,000 440,000 27
Banadir 901,183 901,183 - 30,000 - 55,000 - 9Grand Total 7,502,654 2,895,568 4,607,086 520,000 640,000 135,000 775,000 28
Assessed and Contingency Population in AFLC and HE Number affected% of Total population
Distribution of populations in crisis
Assessed Urban population in AFLC and HE 655,000 9 17%
Assessed Rural population in AFLC and HE 1,415,000 19 38%
Estimated number of new IDPs-updated 2nd Aug 2009 (UNHCR) 1,420,000 19 38%
Estimated number of protracted IDPs 275,000 4 7%
Estimated Rural, Urban and IDP population in crisis 3,765,000 50 100.0%
Jan-Jun '08
(A)
RevisedApr-Jun '08
(B)
Jul-Dec '08
(C)
Jan-Jun '09
(D)
Jun –Dec ’09
(E)
% Increase or decrease
(D to E)
Urban - 576,000 705,000 705,000 655,000 -7%
Rural 850,000 921,000 1,395,000 1,170,000 1,415,000 16%
New IDPs 705,000 855,000 870,000 1,020,000 1,419,000 39%
Protracted IDPS 275,000 275,000 275,000 275,000 275,000 0
Total 1,830,000 2,627,000 3,245,000 3,170,000 3,764,000 17%
Somalia IPC TableTrends in Rural, Urban & IDP Populations in Crisis
Somalia IPC TableDistribution of Rural Populations in Crisis
Comparison of Deyr ‘08/09 and Gu ’09•HE increased – from 680,000 to 775,000 (13% increase)
Primarily due to increase in HE in Central, Hiran and Bakool Off-set by reduction of HE in L. Shabelle
•AFLC increased – from 535,000 to 640,000 (19% increase)
Primarily due to increase in AFLC in north
Zone UNDP 2005 Total Population
UNDP 2005 Rural Population
Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis
(AFLC)
Humanitarian Emergency (HE)
Total in AFLC & HE
% of Total in AFLC & HE
Central 680,156 526,774 75,000 310,000 385,000 27
North East 1,213,324 488,510 15,000 5,000 20,000 1
South 4,480,780 2,792,965 310,000 440,000 750,000 53
North West 1,128,394 798,837 240,000 20,000 260,000 18
Grand Total 7,502,654 4,607,086 640,000 775,000 1,415,000 100
Somalia IPC TableDistribution of Urban Populations in Crisis
Comparison of Deyr ‘08/09 and Gu ’09
•HE slight decreased – from 140,000 to 135,000
Due to slight decrease in HE L. Shabelle
•AFLC decreased – from 565,000 to 520,000
Due to decrease in AFLC South (L. Shabelle, Bay, & M Juba) Off-set by increase in AFLC in north
Zone UNDP 2005 Total Population
UNDP 2005 Urban Population
Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis
(AFLC)
Humanitarian Emergency (HE)
Total in AFLC & HE
% of Total in AFLC & HE
Central 680,156 153,382 45,000 10,000 55,000 8
North East 512,979 234,382 105,000 25,000 130,000 20
South 4,480,780 1,687,815 220,000 70,000 290,000 44
North West 1,828,739 819,989 150,000 30,000 180,000 27
Grand Total 7,502,654 2,895,568 520,000 135,000 655,000 100
Implications for Actions
Humanitarian Access
• Actions to increase humanitarian space and safety to ensure that growing number of populations in need, receive assistance
Emergency Humanitarian Assistance: To Save Lives
• Targeted to areas & livelihood groups identified in HE
• Targeted to areas & livelihood groups identified in Critical & Very Critical Nutrition
• Increased attention to areas where past/current needs exceed response
• Scale-up in HE areas continuing to deteriorate (Central, Hiran, M. Shabelle, Bakool)
• IDP and Urban populations identified in HE and with high rates of malnutrition
• Emerging rural HE areas in the North (Togdheer Agro-pastoral & Sool Plateau Pastoral)
Emergency Livelihood Support: To Save Livelihoods and Prevent Deterioration to HE
• Priority both in areas & livelihood groups in AFLC, but also in HE
• Scale-up of emergency ‘livelihood support’ in the south (L & M Shabelle, Gedo, Bakool)
• Scale-up of emergency in northern drought affected areas
• Poor and most vulnerable urban populations that are not able to cope with prolonged high food and nonfood prices
Humanitarian Access
• Actions to increase humanitarian space and safety to ensure that growing number of populations in need, receive assistance
Emergency Humanitarian Assistance: To Save Lives
• Targeted to areas & livelihood groups identified in HE
• Targeted to areas & livelihood groups identified in Critical & Very Critical Nutrition
• Increased attention to areas where past/current needs exceed response
• Scale-up in HE areas continuing to deteriorate (Central, Hiran, M. Shabelle, Bakool)
• IDP and Urban populations identified in HE and with high rates of malnutrition
• Emerging rural HE areas in the North (Togdheer Agro-pastoral & Sool Plateau Pastoral)
Emergency Livelihood Support: To Save Livelihoods and Prevent Deterioration to HE
• Priority both in areas & livelihood groups in AFLC, but also in HE
• Scale-up of emergency ‘livelihood support’ in the south (L & M Shabelle, Gedo, Bakool)
• Scale-up of emergency in northern drought affected areas
• Poor and most vulnerable urban populations that are not able to cope with prolonged high food and nonfood prices
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