food and nutrition security in 2050 some lessons from the foodsecure project
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Food and Nutrition Security in
2050: Some lessons from the
Foodsecure project
David Laborde Debucquet
IFPRI Policy Seminar, Jan 18 2017Visioning the future of Food SecurityCritical drivers to 2050, key vulnerabilities, and needed policy interventions
This project has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no. 290693
• Interactive process• Overcome the limits of the Shared Socioeconomic
Pathways (SSPs) scenarios from the Climate community• Quantifying Stakeholders vision
Analytical Framework
http://www3.lei.wur.nl/FoodSecurePublications/WP38_scenarios.pdf
Scenario building
(stakeholders)
Quantitative assessment
(economic models)
2050 FNS Analysis
Stakeholder Integrated Research
Features: Building scenarios
Storylines
Governance
Inequalities
Diets
Quantification
Population
GDP
Yields
FOODSECURE stakeholder process
4 Foodsecure Scenarios
Illustrations
Population Yields
Modeling Framework
• The project toolbox used different simulation models from key institutions IFPRI, LEI-Wageningen Universtity, IIASA
• We use a specific version of the MIRAGRODEP Computable General Equilibrium for long term projections (from 2011 to 2050)
• Key features:– Endogenous behavior to match Stakeholders projections– Role of macroeconomic drivers e.g. Current account and
real exchange rate– Role of inequalities
• Drivers (education, factor productivity)• Implications (savings, food demand)
An heterogenous world
0.92
0.93
0.94
0.95
0.96
0.97
0.98
0.99
1
20
15
20
17
20
19
20
21
20
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20
25
20
27
20
29
20
31
20
33
20
35
20
37
20
39
20
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20
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20
45
20
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20
49
Evolution of 2nd decile compared to the average consumer, Ratio
Ecotopia
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
40.00%
Increase in average per capita calories consumption
1%
Too Little Too Late
Food For All But NotForever
Prices will changeWheat Real Price, 1=2015
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
20
15
20
18
20
21
20
24
20
27
20
30
20
33
20
36
20
39
20
42
20
45
20
48
Paa
sch
eIn
dex
_Bas
e20
11
, R
MEA
T
ONEPW
ECO
FFANF
TLTL
Meat Real Price, 1=2015
Wheat Real Price, 1=2015
-800,000
-600,000
-400,000
-200,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
ON
EPW
ECO
FFA
NF
TLTL
ON
EPW
ECO
FFA
NF
TLTL
ON
EPW
ECO
FFA
NF
TLTL
Brazil SubSahAfrica WORLD
2050 - Pasture
2050 - Crops
Land use changes, 1000Ha
Conclusions
• Confronting stakeholders to rigorous assessment
• Role of Demographics
• Role of inequalities
• Understanding the drivers
• Beyond Agriculture: Role of Macroeconomics– Trade dimension http://www.ifpri.org/publication/macro
economics-agriculture-and-food-security-guide-policy-analysis-developing-countries
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