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Envision 2040
Virginia Beach Projected Demographic Highlights As Presented by John Martin
at the July 22, 2011 Envision 2040 Meeting (Note: This is just one section of Mr. Martin’s overall presentation.)
Southeastern Institute of Research
Technology
Cultural Trends
Demographic Trends
Virginia Beach 2040
Economic
Wildcards
World Events
Mr. Martin’s Entire Presentation Touched on Many Trends Shaping the Future of Virginia Beach
Demographic Trends
This Presentation Deck Highlights the 5 Major Demographic Trends
Shift #1
Increasing Population
U.S. Population
250 Million
Source: U. S. Census
1990
U.S. Population
307 Million
Source: U. S. Census
Today
U.S. Population
341 Million
Source: U. S. Census
2020
U.S. Population
400 Million
Source: U. S. Census
2040
Golden
(Population)
Crescent
7 in 10 Virginians Now Live in the Golden Crescent
8.0 M
2010
8.9 M
2020
Source: 2010-2030 projections as reported by Virginia Employment Commission using U.S. Census data.
Year 2040 projection unavailable through VEC. 2040 is based on SIR’s projection using state-wide growth rate.
9.8 M
2030
Virginia Projected Population Growth
2040
10.6 M
8.0 M
2010
8.9 M
2020
Source: 2010-2030 projections as reported by Virginia Employment Commission using U.S. Census data.
Year 2040 projection unavailable through VEC. 2040 is based on SIR’s projection using state-wide growth rate.
9.8 M
2030
Virginia Projected Population Growth
2040
10.6 M
33% Growth
2010-2040
2010
1.8 M
2020 2030
Hampton Roads Projected Population Growth
2040
1.7 M
2.0 M 2.2 M
Source: Virginia Employment Commission, US Census. The projections are computed by SIR and are based on the
US Census 2010 population and the Virginia population projected growth rate over 30-year period.
2010
1.8 M
2020 2030
Hampton Roads Projected Population Growth
2040
1.7 M
2.0 M 2.2 M
Source: 2010-2030 projections as reported by Virginia Employment Commission using U.S. Census data.
Year 2040 projection unavailable through VEC. 2040 is based on SIR’s projection using state-wide growth rate.
29% Growth
2010-2040
440K
2010
470K
2020
Source: 2010-2030 projections as reported by Virginia Employment Commission using U.S. Census data.
Year 2040 projection unavailable through VEC. 2040 is based on SIR’s projection using state-wide growth rate.
490K
2030
Virginia Beach Projected Population Growth
2040
530K
440K
2010
470K
2020
Source: 2010-2030 projections as reported by Virginia Employment Commission using U.S. Census data.
Year 2040 projection unavailable through VEC. 2040 is based on SIR’s projection using state-wide growth rate.
490K
2030
Virginia Beach Projected Population Growth
2040
530K
20% Growth
2010-2040
Virginia Beach 2040
Managing Growth
While Improving
Quality of Life
17
More People = More Cars
VMT Vehicle Miles Traveled
Potential Impacts Increase in congestion &
decrease in mobility and access.
Increase in air quality conformity.
New Roads? Supply Will Not Keep Up with Demand
Shift #2
Expanding Community Footprints
Increasing Density
Increase of
Exurbia Living
Long-term Trend
Creation of New Cities
Tysons Corner, Va. Total Development
2010:
25 Million sq. ft.
2050:
105 Million sq. ft.
Manhattan Today: 200,000 Million
Virginia Beach: 35 million square feet of total enclosed space.
Virginia Beach 2040
Land Use
Planning Today Is
Critically Important to
Manage the “Fill In”
Shaping 2040
Shift #3
Graying Population
31% 33%
40%
44%
29% 27%
29%
20%
The World Is Getting Older
China France Germany India Brazil Japan U.K. U.S.
12%
23% 26%
7% 10%
30%
22%
18%
Percent Population 60+ 2010 2050
Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division -- Ageing 2009
2000
U.S. Population 65+
Source: US Census
11%
2030
19%
2020
16%
2010
13%
2040
20%
2000
Source: 2010-2030 projections as reported by Virginia Employment Commission using
U.S. Census data. Year 2040 projection unavailable through VEC. 2040 is based on SIR’s
projection using state-wide growth rate.
10%
2030
18%
2020
14%
2010
12%
2040
19%
Hampton Roads 65+
2000
8%
2030
19%
2020
15%
2010
11%
2040
20%
Virginia Beach 65+
Source: 2010-2030 projections as reported by Virginia Employment Commission using
U.S. Census data. Year 2040 projection unavailable through VEC. 2040 is based on SIR’s
projection using state-wide growth rate.
2040 Virginia Beach
The New
Seniors Will
Help Shape
2040 Society
Shift #4
Growing Diversity
Shifting Racial Makeup
1990-2090 Source: http:www.usapopulationmap.com
Source: http://www.usapopulationmap.com/race_1990.html
1990: 76% Caucasian
Source: http://www.usapopulationmap.com/race_1990.html
2000: 65% Caucasian
Source: http://www.usapopulationmap.com/race_1990.html
2050: 45% Caucasian
Add browning
Source: http:www.usapopulationmap.com
2090: 25% Caucasian
8.0 M
2010
8.9 M
2020
Source: 2010-2030 projections as reported by Virginia Employment Commission using U.S. Census data. Year 2040
projection unavailable through VEC. 2040 is based on SIR’s projection using state-wide growth rate
9.8 M
2030
Virginia Projected Population Growth
2040
10.6 M
33% Total Growth
from 2010 to 2040
Virginia’s White Population
5,404,492
2010
5,954,509
2030
2010 to 2030 …
10% Growth in White Population
Source: 2010-2030 projections as reported by Virginia Employment Commission using U.S. Census data.
Virginia’s Non-White Population
2,605,747
2010
3,870,510
2030
2010 to 2030….
49% Growth in Non-white Population
Source: 2010-2030 projections as reported by Virginia Employment Commission using U.S. Census data.
Black or African American
1,628,716
2 ,069,710
Asian
423,144
782,629
Hispanic
530,708
995,545
American Indian/Alaska Native
23,179
22,626
2010
2030
2010
2030
2010
2030
+27%
+85%
+88%
21% of 2030 pop.
10% of 2030 pop.
8% of 2030 pop.
Virginia’s Non-White Population 2010-2030
2010
2030 -2%
<1% of 2030 pop.
440K
2010
470K
2020
Source: 2010-2030 projections as reported by Virginia Employment Commission using U.S. Census data. Year
2040 projection unavailable through VEC. 2040 is based on SIR’s projection using state-wide growth rate
490K
2030
Virginia Beach Projected Population Growth
2040
530K
20% Total Growth
from 2010 to 2040
Virginia Beach’s White Population
296,670
2010
271,417
2030
2010 to 2030 …
9% Decrease in White Population
Source: 2010-2030 projections as reported by Virginia Employment Commission using U.S. Census data.
Note: SIR double checked this
projected decrease as reported in VEC data.
Additional investigation is
recommended before this number is widely
disseminated.
Virginia Beach’s Non-White Population
141,324
2010
221,678
2030
2010 to 2030….
57% Growth in Non-white Population
Source: 2010-2030 projections as reported by Virginia Employment Commission using U.S. Census data.
City of Virginia Beach Projected Caucasian Makeup of Total Population
2010 2020 2030 2040
65% 60%
55% 50%
Source: SIR computation based on Virginia Employment Commission/U.S. Census data.
City of Virginia Beach Projected Caucasian Makeup of Total Population
2010 2020 2030 2040
65% 60%
55% 50%
Around 2040, the Minority Will Become the Majority
2010-11 Virginia Beach Public School System
26,227
http://www.vbschools.com/school_data/facts_figs/facts_pdfs/d18.pdf
2010-11 Virginia Beach Public School System
26,227
http://www.vbschools.com/school_data/facts_figs/facts_pdfs/d18.pdf
53.1% Caucasian
Generational Diversity
61% 19% Gen Y 4% 13%
White Hispanic Asian Black
62% 18% 6% 12%
73% 10% 4% 11%
80% 7% 4% 8%
Gen X
Boomers
Silent
Source: BIGresearch
Today 80% of the Rapidly Expanding
Senior Population Is White
Source: Brookings Institution
Source: Brookings Institution
2030 70% of Seniors
Will Still Be White
National Journal
The Gray and the Brown
The Generational Mismatch
Ronald Brownstein
July 24, 2010
The next few slides come from this article.
National Journal
Culture
Gap
56% of Young People
(Under 18)
Today’s Generational Culture Gap
24 Points
80% of Seniors
Whites Represent . . .
Source: National Journal
1980 1990 2000 2010
Calculations performed by the Census Bureau for National Journal
14
24 23
18
Generational Culture Gap
Source: National Journal
Politics of the Issue
Resistant to Taxes
and Public Spending
Beyond
Transportation
Minority Population
Senior Population
Tends to View
Government
Education, Health,
and Social-welfare
Programs as Helpful
Support for Their
Children
Source: National Journal
Politics of the Issue
62% Want Big
Government
Minority Population
Senior Population
62% Don’t Want Big
Government
Source: National Journal
2030 Population
20% U.S. Population
Minority Youth
Senior Population
20% U.S. Population
Source: National Journal
Source: US Census
2040 Virginia Beach Population
Potentially More Seniors
Than Youth
Virginia Beach 2040
Appreciation
of a Shared Destiny
Will Be Needed to
Support & Fund
the Youth
Shift #5
Shifting Households
U.S. - Life Expectancy
1900 47
2010 80
33% increase since 1980
49 million
Americans
The Young & the Old
About one in five adults ages 25 to 34 now live in a multi-
generational household.
So do one-in-five adults
ages 65 and older.
Source: U.S. Census
Single Head of Household
One Person Household
One LESS Person Household
Single Head of Household Is a Big Market
33% Source: Boomer Project analysis of BIGresearch Consumer Intentions & Actions survey, December 2008
of All Households
1970 2010
60% 60%
40% 40%
Percentage of College Degree
M F M F
Source: Dept. of Education
51% of Today’s Workforce
Is Female
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
54% of All Accountant Jobs
Are Held by Females
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
51% of All Managerial and Professional Jobs Are
Held by Females
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
45% of All Associates in
Law Firms Are Female
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
33% of All Physicians in
America Are Female
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
1. Registered Nurses - Associate Degree (RN)
2. Home Health Aides - Short-term and/or HHA Certificate.
3. Customer Service Representatives - Moderate-term
4. Combined Food Preparation-Service Workers - Short-
term
5. Personal/Home Care Aides - Short-term
6. Retail Salespersons - Short-term
7. General Office Clerks - Short-term
8. Accountants/Auditors - Bachelors Degree
9. Nursing Aides (CNAs), Orderlies, Attendants
10.Postsecondary Teachers (College Level)
US Federal Job Projections 2008-2018
All but Two Already Dominated by Women
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Atlantic Monthly
“The End of Men” Google this article to learn about the
details behind this trend.
VA Beach 2040
Economic and
Cultural Power
Shift to Women?
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