Envision 2040

Virginia Beach Projected Demographic Highlights As Presented by John Martin

at the July 22, 2011 Envision 2040 Meeting (Note: This is just one section of Mr. Martin’s overall presentation.)

Southeastern Institute of Research

Technology

Cultural Trends

Demographic Trends

Virginia Beach 2040

Economic

Wildcards

World Events

Mr. Martin’s Entire Presentation Touched on Many Trends Shaping the Future of Virginia Beach

Demographic Trends

This Presentation Deck Highlights the 5 Major Demographic Trends

Shift #1

Increasing Population

U.S. Population

250 Million

Source: U. S. Census

1990

U.S. Population

307 Million

Source: U. S. Census

Today

U.S. Population

341 Million

Source: U. S. Census

2020

U.S. Population

400 Million

Source: U. S. Census

2040

Golden

(Population)

Crescent

7 in 10 Virginians Now Live in the Golden Crescent

8.0 M

2010

8.9 M

2020

Source: 2010-2030 projections as reported by Virginia Employment Commission using U.S. Census data.

Year 2040 projection unavailable through VEC. 2040 is based on SIR’s projection using state-wide growth rate.

9.8 M

2030

Virginia Projected Population Growth

2040

10.6 M

8.0 M

2010

8.9 M

2020

Source: 2010-2030 projections as reported by Virginia Employment Commission using U.S. Census data.

Year 2040 projection unavailable through VEC. 2040 is based on SIR’s projection using state-wide growth rate.

9.8 M

2030

Virginia Projected Population Growth

2040

10.6 M

33% Growth

2010-2040

2010

1.8 M

2020 2030

Hampton Roads Projected Population Growth

2040

1.7 M

2.0 M 2.2 M

Source: Virginia Employment Commission, US Census. The projections are computed by SIR and are based on the

US Census 2010 population and the Virginia population projected growth rate over 30-year period.

2010

1.8 M

2020 2030

Hampton Roads Projected Population Growth

2040

1.7 M

2.0 M 2.2 M

Source: 2010-2030 projections as reported by Virginia Employment Commission using U.S. Census data.

Year 2040 projection unavailable through VEC. 2040 is based on SIR’s projection using state-wide growth rate.

29% Growth

2010-2040

440K

2010

470K

2020

Source: 2010-2030 projections as reported by Virginia Employment Commission using U.S. Census data.

Year 2040 projection unavailable through VEC. 2040 is based on SIR’s projection using state-wide growth rate.

490K

2030

Virginia Beach Projected Population Growth

2040

530K

440K

2010

470K

2020

Source: 2010-2030 projections as reported by Virginia Employment Commission using U.S. Census data.

Year 2040 projection unavailable through VEC. 2040 is based on SIR’s projection using state-wide growth rate.

490K

2030

Virginia Beach Projected Population Growth

2040

530K

20% Growth

2010-2040

Virginia Beach 2040

Managing Growth

While Improving

Quality of Life

17

More People = More Cars

VMT Vehicle Miles Traveled

Potential Impacts Increase in congestion &

decrease in mobility and access.

Increase in air quality conformity.

New Roads? Supply Will Not Keep Up with Demand

Shift #2

Expanding Community Footprints

Increasing Density

Increase of

Exurbia Living

Long-term Trend

Creation of New Cities

Tysons Corner, Va. Total Development

2010:

25 Million sq. ft.

2050:

105 Million sq. ft.

Manhattan Today: 200,000 Million

Virginia Beach: 35 million square feet of total enclosed space.

Virginia Beach 2040

Land Use

Planning Today Is

Critically Important to

Manage the “Fill In”

Shaping 2040

Shift #3

Graying Population

31% 33%

40%

44%

29% 27%

29%

20%

The World Is Getting Older

China France Germany India Brazil Japan U.K. U.S.

12%

23% 26%

7% 10%

30%

22%

18%

Percent Population 60+ 2010 2050

Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division -- Ageing 2009

2000

U.S. Population 65+

Source: US Census

11%

2030

19%

2020

16%

2010

13%

2040

20%

2000

Source: 2010-2030 projections as reported by Virginia Employment Commission using

U.S. Census data. Year 2040 projection unavailable through VEC. 2040 is based on SIR’s

projection using state-wide growth rate.

10%

2030

18%

2020

14%

2010

12%

2040

19%

Hampton Roads 65+

2000

8%

2030

19%

2020

15%

2010

11%

2040

20%

Virginia Beach 65+

Source: 2010-2030 projections as reported by Virginia Employment Commission using

U.S. Census data. Year 2040 projection unavailable through VEC. 2040 is based on SIR’s

projection using state-wide growth rate.

2040 Virginia Beach

The New

Seniors Will

Help Shape

2040 Society

Shift #4

Growing Diversity

Shifting Racial Makeup

1990-2090 Source: http:www.usapopulationmap.com

Source: http://www.usapopulationmap.com/race_1990.html

1990: 76% Caucasian

Source: http://www.usapopulationmap.com/race_1990.html

2000: 65% Caucasian

Source: http://www.usapopulationmap.com/race_1990.html

2050: 45% Caucasian

Add browning

Source: http:www.usapopulationmap.com

2090: 25% Caucasian

8.0 M

2010

8.9 M

2020

Source: 2010-2030 projections as reported by Virginia Employment Commission using U.S. Census data. Year 2040

projection unavailable through VEC. 2040 is based on SIR’s projection using state-wide growth rate

9.8 M

2030

Virginia Projected Population Growth

2040

10.6 M

33% Total Growth

from 2010 to 2040

Virginia’s White Population

5,404,492

2010

5,954,509

2030

2010 to 2030 …

10% Growth in White Population

Source: 2010-2030 projections as reported by Virginia Employment Commission using U.S. Census data.

Virginia’s Non-White Population

2,605,747

2010

3,870,510

2030

2010 to 2030….

49% Growth in Non-white Population

Source: 2010-2030 projections as reported by Virginia Employment Commission using U.S. Census data.

Black or African American

1,628,716

2 ,069,710

Asian

423,144

782,629

Hispanic

530,708

995,545

American Indian/Alaska Native

23,179

22,626

2010

2030

2010

2030

2010

2030

+27%

+85%

+88%

21% of 2030 pop.

10% of 2030 pop.

8% of 2030 pop.

Virginia’s Non-White Population 2010-2030

2010

2030 -2%

<1% of 2030 pop.

440K

2010

470K

2020

Source: 2010-2030 projections as reported by Virginia Employment Commission using U.S. Census data. Year

2040 projection unavailable through VEC. 2040 is based on SIR’s projection using state-wide growth rate

490K

2030

Virginia Beach Projected Population Growth

2040

530K

20% Total Growth

from 2010 to 2040

Virginia Beach’s White Population

296,670

2010

271,417

2030

2010 to 2030 …

9% Decrease in White Population

Source: 2010-2030 projections as reported by Virginia Employment Commission using U.S. Census data.

Note: SIR double checked this

projected decrease as reported in VEC data.

Additional investigation is

recommended before this number is widely

disseminated.

Virginia Beach’s Non-White Population

141,324

2010

221,678

2030

2010 to 2030….

57% Growth in Non-white Population

Source: 2010-2030 projections as reported by Virginia Employment Commission using U.S. Census data.

City of Virginia Beach Projected Caucasian Makeup of Total Population

2010 2020 2030 2040

65% 60%

55% 50%

Source: SIR computation based on Virginia Employment Commission/U.S. Census data.

City of Virginia Beach Projected Caucasian Makeup of Total Population

2010 2020 2030 2040

65% 60%

55% 50%

Around 2040, the Minority Will Become the Majority

2010-11 Virginia Beach Public School System

26,227

http://www.vbschools.com/school_data/facts_figs/facts_pdfs/d18.pdf

2010-11 Virginia Beach Public School System

26,227

http://www.vbschools.com/school_data/facts_figs/facts_pdfs/d18.pdf

53.1% Caucasian

Generational Diversity

61% 19% Gen Y 4% 13%

White Hispanic Asian Black

62% 18% 6% 12%

73% 10% 4% 11%

80% 7% 4% 8%

Gen X

Boomers

Silent

Source: BIGresearch

Today 80% of the Rapidly Expanding

Senior Population Is White

Source: Brookings Institution

Source: Brookings Institution

2030 70% of Seniors

Will Still Be White

National Journal

The Gray and the Brown

The Generational Mismatch

Ronald Brownstein

July 24, 2010

The next few slides come from this article.

National Journal

Culture

Gap

56% of Young People

(Under 18)

Today’s Generational Culture Gap

24 Points

80% of Seniors

Whites Represent . . .

Source: National Journal

1980 1990 2000 2010

Calculations performed by the Census Bureau for National Journal

14

24 23

18

Generational Culture Gap

Source: National Journal

Politics of the Issue

Resistant to Taxes

and Public Spending

Beyond

Transportation

Minority Population

Senior Population

Tends to View

Government

Education, Health,

and Social-welfare

Programs as Helpful

Support for Their

Children

Source: National Journal

Politics of the Issue

62% Want Big

Government

Minority Population

Senior Population

62% Don’t Want Big

Government

Source: National Journal

2030 Population

20% U.S. Population

Minority Youth

Senior Population

20% U.S. Population

Source: National Journal

Source: US Census

2040 Virginia Beach Population

Potentially More Seniors

Than Youth

Virginia Beach 2040

Appreciation

of a Shared Destiny

Will Be Needed to

Support & Fund

the Youth

Shift #5

Shifting Households

U.S. - Life Expectancy

1900 47

2010 80

33% increase since 1980

49 million

Americans

The Young & the Old

About one in five adults ages 25 to 34 now live in a multi-

generational household.

So do one-in-five adults

ages 65 and older.

Source: U.S. Census

Single Head of Household

One Person Household

One LESS Person Household

Single Head of Household Is a Big Market

33% Source: Boomer Project analysis of BIGresearch Consumer Intentions & Actions survey, December 2008

of All Households

1970 2010

60% 60%

40% 40%

Percentage of College Degree

M F M F

Source: Dept. of Education

51% of Today’s Workforce

Is Female

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

54% of All Accountant Jobs

Are Held by Females

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

51% of All Managerial and Professional Jobs Are

Held by Females

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

45% of All Associates in

Law Firms Are Female

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

33% of All Physicians in

America Are Female

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

1. Registered Nurses - Associate Degree (RN)

2. Home Health Aides - Short-term and/or HHA Certificate.

3. Customer Service Representatives - Moderate-term

4. Combined Food Preparation-Service Workers - Short-

term

5. Personal/Home Care Aides - Short-term

6. Retail Salespersons - Short-term

7. General Office Clerks - Short-term

8. Accountants/Auditors - Bachelors Degree

9. Nursing Aides (CNAs), Orderlies, Attendants

10.Postsecondary Teachers (College Level)

US Federal Job Projections 2008-2018

All but Two Already Dominated by Women

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Atlantic Monthly

“The End of Men” Google this article to learn about the

details behind this trend.

VA Beach 2040

Economic and

Cultural Power

Shift to Women?

John W. Martin jwm@SirResearch.com

804-358-8981