energy sustainability vs materials availability. equivalence and differences igor lubomirsky and...
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Energy sustainability vs materials availability. Equivalence and differences
Igor Lubomirsky and David CahenDept. Materials and InterfacesWeizmann Institute of Science
Rehovot, 76100, Israel
all knowledge starts from wonder Aristotle
1
There are lot studies about sustainability of materials …
What can we add to it?
This is the Man all tattered and torn,
That ..………………………………………………
…………………………………………………
That lay in the House
that Jack built
What happens if energy becomes more expensive?
How will it affect materials production and consumption?
Do we have the technological abilities to adapt?
If yes, how?3
Energy availability definesthe range of materials that can be used
World Oil Energy Consumption by Sector, 1973-2010
Why do we have to think about these questions ? Because energy consumption is highly specialized.
More than 90% of coal is used for three purposes only:
Electricity
Steel
Cement
Energy prices are not interdependent
If one energy source becomes more
expensive, then other sources follow.
6
Despite high specialization…
:// . . / / / _ _ .http www metalprices com pubcharts Public Aluminum Price Charts asp
:// . . / - - / - /http www moneyweek com news and charts market data oil
No oil is used for aluminum production
Should the price of aluminum
correlate with the price of oil?Why?
High energy price diverts some electricity used from aluminum
production to other uses
7
If a technologically and economically viable alternative
exists,
can it be implemented quickly?
http://energyalmanac.ca.gov/gasoline/margins/index.phphttp://www.methanex.com/products/methanolprice.html
9
Methanol vs Gasoline price Price of Methanol on Nov. 2012: $1.45/gallon
Ratio of Methanol to Gasoline Energy Content (w/w) = 0.55
Density of Methanol: 0.79 gm/cm3
Density of Gasoline: 0.72 gm/cm3
Cost of the amount of Methanol equivalent to
1 US gallon (= 3.785 l) of gasoline:/gallon$2.9
0.720.55
0.791.45
Gasoline costs, before taxes & distribution, on Nov. 2012: $3.0 / gallon, which
includes
price of crude oil @ $2.44 /gallon
price of refining (including profits) ~$0.55 /gallon
(slightly varies from state to state)
Why are
n’t we
driving on
MeOH?
Gasoline consumption in the US alone is ~130 billion
gallonsTotal production of
methanol in the world is 16 billion gallons
Total installed production capacity is ~20 billion
gallons(<8% of US gasoline equivalent)
Methanol p
roducti
on
capacit
y can’t
match
demand in fo
rese
eable
futu
re
Questions: 1.How much energy can be
diverted without major disrupting living standards?
(How flexible is the energy consumption structure?)
2. Can materials availability limitations affect technological changes?
Starting point: Transition to new technologies
requires diversion of energy and materials
What is energy used for?
11%
10%
24%
27.5%
27.5%
Materials production Transportation Residential use Commercial services Other
12
Can some of this energy be redirected?
Transportation?
Industrial and commercial Personal and recreational
35.4%
21.2%
23.2%
Agriculture Construction
20.2%
Only ~8% of personal fuel consumption is “purely” recreational (1.6% of total)!
Gasoline consumption rises ~ 30% per decade “Hidden costs of energy Unpriced
consequences of energy production and use”the national academies press, Washington, D.C.
Energy usage in transportation in the US
Can some of this energy be redirected?
Residential? Major fraction (>85%) is for
heating and air conditioning.
Commercial services? Energy consumption can be cut but … at the expense of important services“Hidden costs of energy Unpriced
consequences of energy production and use”the national academies press, Washington, D.C.
Can some of the energy for materials processing be
redirected?
10.7 (32%)4 (12%)
1.5 (5%)
2 (6%)
3 (9%)
12 (36%)
steel cement ammonia aluminum plastics all other
Since, these five materials are vital, only a small portion of the energy used for industry can be
really diverted
Five materials use more than half of all energy for materials production
16
Can the energy expenses for materials production
decrease with time?
Not likely
The fraction of materials in the total energy balance will grow
because improvement in extraction technology is offset by decreased quality
and exhaustion of ores
18
Gupta and Hall.. Energy cost of materials..
Gordon, R. B., Bertram, M., and Graedel, T. E.: Metal stocks and sustainability, PNAS, 103(5), 1209 (2006).
the energy cost of extraction increases steeply with decrease of ore quality
Energy and greenhouse gas implications of deteriorating quality ore reserves; T.Norgate and S. Jahanshahi; CSIRO Minerals/Centre for Sustainable Resource Processing; URL : http://www.minerals.csiro.au
The fraction of materials in the total energy balance will grow
The fraction of materials in the total energy balance will grow
discovery of new ores does not compensate for exhaustion
20
Gupta and Hall.. Energy cost of materials..
Gordon, R. B., Bertram, M., and Graedel, T. E.: Metal stocks and sustainability, PNAS, 103(5), 1209 (2006).
Can materials consumption
be restricted by increased
efficiency of their use?
21
Material intensity increases steadily
( quantity of materials per unit of product decreases)
USA
UK
Japan
Does it mean that materials consumption will decrease?
22Krausmann et al…
Mineral/fossil
Biomass
Materials consumption per capita INCREASES because living standards rise
23Krausmann at al… 2009
Absolute materials consumption accelerates exponentially
24
F. Krausmann, S. Gingrich, N. Eisenmenger, K. H. Erb, H. Haberl, and M. Fischer-Kowalski,
Growth in global materials use, GDP and population during the 20th century,
Ecological Economics, 68(10), 2696-2705 (2009).
Conclusion 1
Current structure of the energy/materials
production/consumption
does not allow for large flexibility
Availability of materials produced as byproducts
26
Price scales as a power law with abundance
John R. Boyce, Biased Technological Change and the Relative Abundance of Natural Resources
from Cu
from Znfrom Zn
from Cu-Mo
Low price relative to abundance
from Zn
from Zn, Cu, Pd
Price scales as a power law with abundance
Production volumes should also scale with abundance
Source of data: USGS, EIA, CRC Handbook of Chemistry and Physics, others
30
Can the supply of a byproduct
be increased rapidly if a technological need
arises?
31
Listed energy cost of the byproducts (does not include the price of the
primary) product pr Approximate energy cost
production (GJ t-1)
Primary products
Aluminum 188
Steel 29
Copper 135
Cement 6
Iron ore 3
Lead 31
Zinc 76
Phosphate 0.35
Secondary products
Gallium 50
Germanium 40
Indium 40
Selenium 116
Tellurium 116
Cadmium 4.5
Gupta and Hall.. Energy cost of materials..
Increase in production of byproducts requires
increase of production of the corresponding primary
product
32
The problem
How does it affect abilities to switch to renewable
energy sources?
33
than that of materials for solar cells
For Never Was A Story Of More Woe
34
Nayak Bisquert, Cahen. AM, 2011, updated 2012
Solar cells are as good as they can beCell type (absorber) [%] of theoretical efficiency
sc-Si ~90
GaAs ~90
InP ~80
CdTe ~ 75
Cu(In~0.7Ga~0.3)Se ~78
a-Si:H ~67DSSC (black dye) (red N719)
~55?~75?
Org. polymer (P3HT-PCBM-based)
~55?35
36
Annual production of Te in 2010 is only
150 tonne (from Cu refinement)Current recovery rate is 33–40%
Increasing installed capacity from current 0.07 TW to 0.7 TW requires a few times increase in copper production.
In 2008 Cu production used 0.08% of world energy. Increasing production by a few times is not feasible.Data from Minerals Yearbook ( US Geological
survey) and
Fthenakis, V.: Sustainability metrics for extending thin-film photovoltaics to terawatt levels, MRS Bulletin, 37(4), 425 (2012).
Resource Availability, in metric tons Years to exhaustion
with the current
consumption rate and
technology
Annual production including recycling
Known resources
Indium (2010) 574 N/A Probably <10
Gallium (2008) 184 N/A Probably <10
Tellurium (2010) 155 22,000 140
Selenium (2009)(US declined to disclose)
2,280 88,000 39
Cadmium (2010) 22,000 660,000 30
Similar calculation can be done for other materials
Increase in Ga or In production requires increase
in Al production
37
Si, Ti and organics… are available in really large quantities
Data from Minerals Yearbook ( US Geological survey)
How big is the increase?Only 10% of Al producers extract GaPra
ctica
lly
imposs
ible
Materials for wind energy:
economy and materials limitation
38
Nd2Fe14B magnets Made ONLY in China (80%), Japan (17%), and Germany (3%). A 3MW windmill requires 700 kg of Nd
(A hybrid car requires 3 kg of Nd)
Nd2Fe14B lose 50% coercivity @100 C
New Nd-Dy-Y—Fe-B magnet works to 200 C and uses less Nd.
Wind energy. Materials aspect
Resource Availability, in metric tons Years to exhaustion with
the current consumption rate and technology
Annual production including recycling
Known resources
Nd 7.000 8 million tonnes
Using ALL available Nd may add
35 TW
With current production one can add 13 GW /year
39
However…..
many materials have very limited number of producers.
Sometimes one producer.
The problems are often political…
40
~80% of wind-electricity
produced in Denmark is sold with economic
loss41
Danish center for political studies (CEPOS) report of Sep. 2009: WIND ENERGY THE CASE OF DENMARK
because there is no good way for
large-scale energy storage
42
Danish center for political studies (CEPOS) report of Sep. 2009: WIND ENERGY THE CASE OF DENMARK
Electricity to fuel. Materials aspect 11. Water electrolysis: low temperature electrolysis
(alkaline process) requires Pt to reach > 80% efficiency
Taking 1/10 of world Pt production (U 1.5 V potential (82% efficiency), 100 nm thick coverage, J=0.1 A/cm2) can convert 135 GW of electrical energy into H2.
Resource Availability, in metric tons Years to exhaustion with
the current consumption rate and technology
Annual production including recycling
Known resources
Platinum (2010) 180 tonne( 9 m3)
14,000 NA
Without Pt, the efficiency is < 50% ( 1 atm), ~ 80% @ (high pressure)
This is < 0.3 % of the energy required for transportation.
43
Electricity to fuel. Materials aspect 22. Water electrolysis: high temperature
electrolysis (reversed fuel cells)3. Materials are not restricted (Y, Zr, Ni, Co)
Efficiency 120 C 45%; 850 C <65%;
• theoretically FEASIBLE. • Susceptible to sulfur poisoning• Practically not tested
Resource Availability, in metric tons Years to exhaustion with
the current consumption rate and technology
Annual production including recycling
Known resources
Yttrium (2010) 8900 540,000 60Ziconium (2010, ktons) 1190 56000 47
Cobalt (2010) 88,000 7,300,000 82
44
The method :
CO2 to CO conversion by electrolysis of molten Li2CO3-Li2O mixture
Operating temperature: 900 oC;
Current density range: 0.05-2 A/cm2;
Cathode: Titanium;
Anode: Carbon;
Container: Titanium or Ti-plated steel
3. CO2 CO electrolysis in melts
(Kaplan & Lubomirsky, 2010)
45
1000 hrs of continuous operation without degradation
Current density: 0.1-2 A/cm2
Cell voltage: 1.0-1.5 VFaradaic efficiency 100% ;
2
2
CO in
O out
anode cathode
CO out
-2-2
3 2OCO2CO e
-23
-22 COOCO
32CO Liofmelt
2-2 O2
12O e
Thermodynamic efficiency 100%
46
Small scale (5 kA) prototype was successfully tested
47
Why is this better than other schemes?
1. No precious (Pt, Ag, Au, Pd) metals required
2. No materials limitations: Ti and Li2CO3-Li2O
3. No hazardous chemicals involved, no pollution
4. Continuous operation is possible
5. One can use flue gas as a source
6. The system is fully tolerant to SO2 and Nox
7. Capture of CO2 from air is possible
8. The system is VERY COMPACT >50 kW/m3
9. CO can be easily converted into liquid fuel (CH3OH) 48
Can recycling help?
Yes, but only partially!
Current recycling levelsPb >90% Fe 55-65%Al 40-50% Sn >50% Mg >40% Cu >25%
49
Large fraction of materials cannot be recycled
10.7 (32%)4 (12%)
1.5 (5%)
2 (6%)
3 (9%)
12 (36%)
steel cement ammonia aluminum plastics all other
Recycled already >50%
1. there is very little flexibility in the ability to divert energy resources to new technologies
2. production of those materials that are by-products cannot be increased rapidly
3. recycling can provide only a partial relief
Optimism and Realism
We need new ideas
NOW
51
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