eelco van beek marjolijn haasnoot adaptive delta management how to deal with the uncertainties...

Eelco van Beek

Marjolijn Haasnoot

Adaptive Delta Management

How to deal with the uncertaintiesinvolved in Sea Level Rise?The Dutch approach

European-American – Transatlantic Solutions to Sea Level Rise Adaptation

Norfolk, VA, 30 October 2013

Adaptive Delta Management – What’s new?

What is not new?• we have for centuries adapted our delta to

changing conditions• but always in response to (near) disasters

New is:• we now want to anticipate the change (SLR-CC) or

consider transitions• but these changes are uncertain• this requires new approaches and methods for

problem analysis, policy analysis and management planning

Dealing with ‘fundamental uncertainties’ is the key issue of ADM:• “what to do and when to do it?”• “not too much, not too little”• “not too early, nor too late”

Sea Level Rise (SLR) – one of the uncertainties

Uncertainties we face in anticipating changes• SLR• Other climate change effects (e.g. higher peak discharges

rivers)• Socio-economic changes• Subsidence (and our ability to stop or decrease the rate)• Perspective of society on how to manage the system• Events

SLR is actually the most certain of these uncertainties• is taken place, also without climate change• accelerated SLR, how fast?

Scenario approach• integrated scenario’s• tendency to focus on ‘the worst credible’

Perpectives in views and management stylesBased on Cultural Theory

Sea level rise: many scenarios

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20

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1900 2000 2050 2100

Observations

IPCC low

IPCC high

WB21 Low

WB21 High

KNMI06 Low

KNMI06 High

KNMI06 + Th Exp + GL High

KNMI06 + Th Exp + GL + WAIS High

MAX

Al Gore, inconvenient truth

Before long The Netherlands

will look like this

Now look who is talking….

He didn’t mention that the Netherlands has the highest safety levels in the world:

1 : 10,000 years for flooding from the sea1 : 1,250 years for flooding from rivers

7

Now we had a problem:

The risk of climate change / sea level rise is not the flood hazard itself

but

The image that the Netherlands might not be safe anymore for investments

Now that is a major risk!!

2nd Delta commission

First finding:Scientists do not agree on magnitude of Climate change and sea level rise

Asked basically four questions1. What is the maximum plausible SLR between now and 2100? (130cm)

2. Are we able to defend the Netherlands to that rise? (YES)

3. What will it cost? (1 B-EURO/yr)

4. Can we pay this? (YES)

OK, than that is what we will do, discussion closed

Working with transient scenario’s

• Classical approach: end-point scenario’s (e.g. 2040, 2100)

• But:• society changes also (perspectives, beliefs)• society learns and with that their response changes

• Events are important triggers for changes• events in the Netherlands (near floods)• Al Gore• Katrina and Sandy

• Wait or take action now?• Answer: combine the two• Use transient scenario’s in

which events and changing

perspectives are included

Adaptation Tipping Points (ATP)

Classical approach: What if…(climate) changes according to scenario x?

Tipping point approach:How much (climate) change can we cope with?

When will this occur? sell-by date of tipping point for each scenario

tipping point • Spatial limits• Technical limits• Financial limits• Socially unacceptable• Governmental unacceptable

EEA, 2013

KNMI W 2050KNMI G 2100

Example ATP, Rhine Meuse Estuary

Determining ATP’s – Sell by dates

ATP depends on:• scenario’s (e.g. SLR, socio-economic developments)• occurrence of events (which are stochastic)

> need to consider multiple transient scenario’s• perspectives

Many combinations are possible• computer can generate range of ATP

Moment of an ATP:Sell-by date policy actions based on ensemble of futures

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No policy

DH1000 DH1.5 RfRl RfRs CopU FloatH FaC Mound No policy

SmallShip

MediumShip

SmallDredge

LargeDredge

yea

r

EGA all scenariosIND all scenarios

flood management policy options low flow policy options

HIE No climate changeHIE G scenario

HIE Wp scenario

Median values

HIE all scenarios

Minimum value

Maximum value

Upper quantile

Lower quantile

DH500

Results of all Scenarios for HIE

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10

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90

100

No policy

DH1000 DH1.5 RfRl RfRs CopU FloatH FaC Mound No policy

SmallShip

MediumShip

SmallDredge

LargeDredge

yea

r

EGA all scenariosIND all scenarios

flood management policy options low flow policy options

HIE No climate changeHIE G scenario

HIE Wp scenario

Median values

HIE all scenarios

Minimum value

Maximum value

Upper quantile

Lower quantile

DH500

Results of all Scenarios for HIE

Example: Waas case

Adaptation pathwaysSequence of policy actions to achieve targets under changing conditions

Adaptation pathwaysSequence of policy actions to achieve targets under changing conditions

Application in Delta Programme in the NetherlandsExperiencing pathways in a game-setting

http://deltagame.deltares.nl

2

Adaptation PATHWAYS provide insights into options, lock-in possibilities, and path dependencies.

Some lessons learned

4MONITORING plan and CONTINGENCY actions help to stay on track. Not for extremes. Autonomous adaptation of stakeholders can be important.

5 Pathways can be developed based on EXPERT JUDGEMENT or/and on MODELLING results.

1Adaptation TIPPING POINTS help in assembling paths. However, the sell-by date interval can be large.

3KEEP IT SIMPLE: screen or group actions (n=< 20). Concretize actions. One pathways map for one objective/area.

Questions - Discussion

Marjolijn.Haasnoot@deltares.nlEelco.vanBeek@deltares.nl