earthquake risk assessment using...

Earthquake Risk Assessment

Using HAZUS

Muhammad Murad Billah Senior GIS Coordinator

Can we find any limitation in

RADIUS for risk assessment?

There are 2 major limitation

-Building Type

-Lifeline Inventory

Building Type in RADIUS

Does this explanation provide any idea about the building structure type?

Lifeline Inventory in RADIUS

Lifeline Inventory Damage Result in RADIUS

Can we tell from this result which place is the worst in terms of damage?

What is HAZUS-MH? • Facilitates a risk-based approach to disaster

management

• Calculates scientifically-defensible damages, economic losses, and mitigation benefits

• Identifies and visually displays hazards and vulnerabilities

Loss estimation methodology

1. Define hazard

Loss estimation methodology

2. Define and overlay

Inventory

1. Define hazard

Loss estimation methodology

3. Determine damage

2. Define and overlay

Inventory

1. Define hazard

Loss estimation methodology

4. Estimate losses

3. Determine damage

2. Define and overlay

Inventory

1. Define hazard

13

Interface

Inventory Data

• Common to all hazards

How buildings are used and constructed

Lifelines

Replacement Costs

Demographics

• Hazard-specific

Specific building types

Elevation

Building configuration

Three basic steps are required to implement

and run an analysis of losses for an

international study region using HAZUS.

1) Create Study Region

2) Develop Hazard

3) Run Analysis

HAZUS-MH Provided Inventory Data

• General Building Stock

• Essential Facilities

• Hazardous Material Facilities

• High Potential Loss Facilities

• Transportation Lifeline Systems

• Utility Lifeline Systems

• Demographics

General Building Stock

• Includes residential, commercial, industrial, and public service building types

• 36 model buildings types and 28 occupancy classes

18

Building Occupancy Classes

Building Occupancy = Building Use Occupancy class is important in determining economic loss, since building value is primarily a function of building use.

19

Building Structural Types

Damage is predicted based on building structural type. The key factor in assessing overall building performance, loss of function and casualties.

Building Related Components

Inventory of General Building Stock

• Building Count

• Square Footage

• Occupancy Mapping

• Dollar Exposure

Building Damage

• Capacity Curve

• Structural Fragility Curve

Essential Facilities

• Include hospitals and other medical facilities, police and fire stations, emergency operation centers and schools

Transportation Lifeline Systems

• Include the Airways, Highways, Waterways, Bus Stations

Utility Lifeline Systems

• Include portable water, wastewater, oil, natural gas, electric power, and communication systems

Demographics

• Include total populations: age, gender, and race distribution; income distribution; number of owners and renters; building age; workforce location data.

Demography Related Components Population

• Demographics

• Casualties

Three basic steps are required to implement

and run an analysis of losses for an

international study region using HAZUS.

1) Create Study Region

2) Develop Hazard

3) Run Analysis

Building Related Components

Induced Physical Damage

• Fire Following Earthquake

• Debris Generation

Feature Classes and Tables

bndrygbs.mdb

Earthquake Risk Assessment Methodology

Ground Motion/Site effects Ground Failures

Direct Physical Damage General Building Stock

Essential Facilities Transportation Systems

Utility Systems

Induced Physical Damage Fires, Debris, Inundation, Haz Materials Release

Direct Losses Economic Losses

Casualties

Indirect Losses Indirect Economic Losses

Base Map

Survey

Seismic Hazard Map

Survey & Analysis

Data Preparation HAZUS Analysis

HAZUS Dataset General Building Stock

Essential Facilities Transportation Systems

Utility Systems Spatial Location Physical Characteristics

Vulnerability Mapping

Collection of Quick Bird Image

On Screen Digitization (building, road, water body, open space, hill)

Geo-referencing the Quickbird Image by RTK GPS with the surveyed GCPs

Base line survey with total station

Selection of TIC/GCP on the Image and Establishment of Bench Mark

Development of GIS database as a base map by incorporating attribute

data & field information

Field verification and Attribute information collection

Base Map Development

Cluster Development City (Administrative Boundary)

Ward (Administrative Boundary)

Cluster (Detail area delineation)

Criteria:

-Existing Ward Boundary - Road Network & Waterbody - Homogeneity in building use & structure type -Restricted area

Building floor area

Building count

HAZUS occupancy

HAZUS structural types

Building age/ Quality

Number of occupants

Replacement cost

Cost of contents

Earthquake design code

Tract or Cluster

GIS database

Survey

Other sources

Inventory of Building Stock

Base Map • General Building Stocks

• Essential Facilities

(Emergency Operation, Medical Care, School & University)

Base Map

Field Survey Work - Building

Level I Level II

• Structural type (36 types)

• Occupancy class (33 classes) • Number of stories • Building age (<10, 10-30, >30 yr) • Number of occupants (day, night) • Visible physical condition (poor,

average, good)

• Vulnerability factors (soft story,

heavy overhang etc.)

• Photos of building

Level I +

• Plan sketch • Dimensions of key building components (column size, wall layout etc.)

• Slab system (cast-in-place, pre-cast)

• Vulnerability details (short column, floor opening etc.)

Level III Level 0

35

36

More structural types are added to HAZUS to better characterize some typical buildings in local context: Non-engineered RC Building Unreinforced Masonry—Concrete Roof Unreinforced Masonry—Flexible Roof Tin Shed & Bamboo

Concrete Moment Frame with Unreinforced Masonry Walls

Concrete Slab-Column Frame

Lightly Reinforced Concrete Frame (Non-Engineered RC )

Unreinforced Masonry with Concrete Roof & Floor

Unreinforced Masonry with Flexible Roof

Tin Shed

Bamboo

Building Structural Type

Building Vulnerability Factors

% of vulnerabilities in each occupancy

1.5 m

Large opening

Occupancy – Structure Type Correlation Matrix for HAZUS input

Full replacement cost Replacement cost = Construction cost per floor area x floor area

Cost of contents Cost of contents = Replacement cost x CV

CV : Content value from HAZUS Manual

Dollars per Sq-ft

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Apartment Hotel Small shop Office Hospital Government School

18

20

16

24 24

17 18

22

20

15

20

27

22

20

Bangladesh

USx0.2

Local

41

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

0 30 60 90 120 150

PGV (cm/s)

Pro

ba

bility

As

A

B

C

Fragility curves of Structural Type A

Probability of extensive damage or collapse is 45 %

D

Ground Shaking Intensity PGV (cm/sec)

Probability of Damage (damage state exceeding probability)

Probability of collapse is 21 %

Spatial location

Building foot-print

HAZUS network type

HAZUS facility type

Physical characteristics

System performance

Replacement cost

Restoration time

Tract or Cluster

GIS database

Survey

Survey & other sources

Inventory of Lifeline

Base Map

• Transportation System (Highway, Railway, Bus, Ferry)

• Utility System (Potable Water, Waste Water, Natural Gas, Electric Power, Communication)

Base Map

Burigangga 2 Bridge

Lifeline Survey – Highway Bridge

Deep Tube Well Overheight Tank

Pump House

Lifeline Survey – Potable Water System

Replacement Value

System Component HAZUS

Label

BD Value

(thous. USD)

HAZUS Value

(thous. USD) Percentage

Highway Major Roads - 4 lanes (cost/km length) HRD1 2,000.00 10,000.00 20.00

Transportation Urban Roads 2 lanes (cost/km length) HRD2 1,000.00 5,000.00 20.00

Highway Bridges HWB See bridge

table - -

Railway Rail Track (cost/km length) RTR1 1,050.00 1,500.00 70.00

Transportation Urban Station RST 400.00 2,000.00 20.00

Fuel Facility RFF 600.00 3,000.00 20.00

Maintenance Facility RMF 560.00 2,800.00 20.00

Dispatch Facility RDF 600.00 3,000.00 20.00

Bus Urban Station BPT 200.00 1,000.00 20.00

Transportation Fuel Facility BFF 30.00 150.00 20.00

Maintenance Facility BMF 260.00 1,300.00 20.00

Dispatch Facility BDF 80.00 400.00 20.00

Ferry Passenger Terminal FPT 200.00 1,000.00 20.00

Transportation Fuel Facility FFF 80.00 400.00 20.00

Maintenance Facility FMF 104.00 520.00 20.00

Dispatch Facility FDF 40.00 200.00 20.00

Potable Water Brittle Pipe PWP1 0.70 1.00 70.00

Ductile Pipe PWP2 0.70 1.00 70.00

Small WTP PWT 30,000.00 30,000.00 100.00

Well PWE 62.86 400.00 15.71

Overhead Tank PSTAS 160.00 800.00 20.00

Small Pumping Plant PPP 150.00 150.00 100.00

Waste Water Brittle Pipe WWP1 0.70 1.00 70.00

Small WWTP WWT 60,000.00 60,000.00 100.00

Small Lift Station WLS 48.00 300.00 16.00

Natural Gas Arc Welded Steel Pipe (cost/break) NGP2 0.69 1.00 68.78

Compressor Station (DRS) NGC 1,000.00 1,000.00 100.00

Electric Power Low Voltage Substation (distribution

transformer ESS 10,000.00 10,000.00 100.00

Distribution Circuit (electric pole) EDC 0.47 3.00 15.71

Communication Central Office (Exchange) CCO 5,000.00 5,000.00 100.00

Radio Station/Transmitter CBR 2,000.00 2,000.00 100.00

TV Station/Transmitter CBT 2,000.00 2,000.00 100.00

• Benchmark Calculation HAZUS value >< local construction cost

- Gas Pipeline

- Potable Water Pipeline

- Electric Distribution Circuit (pole)

• Percentage of HAZUS cost: - 17%: Local product & man-power related works

- 20%: Cost mostly is from structure cost

- 70%: Network lifeline (pipeline)

- 100%: Cost mostly is from equipment cost

Lifeline Restoration Time

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0 5 10 15 20

%fu

nct

ion

al

Time (days)

Restoration Curve for Potable Water Facility

(Moderate Damage)

HAZUS

Bangladesh

• Benchmark Calculation

HAZUS value >< (estimated) local restoration time

- Gas Pipeline

- Electric Distribution Circuit (pole)

- Potable Water Well

• Local restoration time is 4-5 times longer than HAZUS one

Field Survey Activity

Engineers Training Interview

Base Map Verification

Georeference Checking

Building Survey

Lifeline Survey

48

Changing the Scenario

1

7

6

5

4 3

2

Building Density & Occupancy Type

Ward 48

Building Density (Number per km2)

Building Occupancy Class

Nighttime Population

Population Population Density (Number per km2)

Population Density (Number per km2)

Daytime Population

Seismic Vulnerability of Concrete Buildings

Vulnerability Level (Score)

Vulnerability Factor

Transportation System: Highway Transportation System

Essential Facility: Medical Care Facilities

Utility System: Potable Water System

Lifeline Vulnerability

Earthquake Risk Assessment Methodology

Ground Motion/Site effects Ground Failures

Direct Physical Damage General Building Stock

Essential Facilities Transportation Systems

Utility Systems

Induced Physical Damage Fires, Debris, Inundation, Haz Materials Release

Direct Losses Economic Losses

Casualties

Indirect Losses Indirect Economic Losses

Base Map

Survey

HAZUS Dataset General Building Stock

Essential Facilities Transportation Systems

Utility Systems Spatial Location Physical Characteristics

Seismic Hazard Map

Survey & Analysis

Data Preparation HAZUS Analysis

Vulnerability Mapping

• Seismic Hazard Information

Parameters: Soil Class, Liquefaction Susceptibility, Landslide Susceptibility, and Water Depth input in cluster wise

• Earthquake Scenario

- Scenario Case 1: Maximum Earthquake (High Severity)

- Scenario Case 2: Moderate Earthquake (Low Severity)

- Scenario Case 3: Mw=6 Underneath the City (Moderate Severity)

Earthquake Scenarios

Damage to Concrete Buildings

Scenario 1

Number of Conc. Buildings at least moderate damage

Damage Level

Moderate

Extensive

Complete

0-50

50-100

100-150

150-250

250-450

• Transportation System

- Highway Transportation System

- Railway, Bus, and Ferry Transportation System

• Utility System

- Potable Water System

- Waste Water System

- Natural Gas System

- Electric Power and Communication System

Potable Water System Damage

Lifeline Damage

Scenario 1

Casualties

Severity Level 1: Injuries will require medical attention but hospitalization is not needed Severity Level 2: Injuries will require hospitalization but are not considered lift-threatening Severity Level 3: Injuries will require hospitalization and can become lift-threatening if not promptly treated Severity Level 4: Victims are killed by the earthquake

Number of Injuries Levels 2+3+4

0-50

50-150

150-250

250-350

350-600

Possible Damage to Medical Facilities in Dhaka Possible Fire Following Earthquake in Dhaka

Using the Results for

Contingency Planning

Contingency Plan Development

Framework

Establish the Context in Relation to Potential Hazards

Vulnerability Assessment & Loss Estimation

Plan Development at Various Levels

Scenario Development

•Low Risk, Moderate Risk, High Risk

Develop Template for Contingency Plans to Address Needs and Suite Risk Scenarios

Perform Review & Revision After Major

Events or as needed

Review Mandates for Various Levels & Sectors

Extended Roles and

Responsibilities of agencies

Compare with existing and Gap analysis

Training & Capacity Building

Urban planning solutions

Pre-positioning of facilities

Develop a Reporting & M&E Mechanisms

Location of Admin Offices Evacuation Space in Dhaka City

Location of High-rise Building in Dhaka City Highway Transportation System Damage

Location of Temporary Shelters Possible Evacuation Route in Dhaka City

Trapped Population in Dhaka City Location of Search & Rescue Camp

Location of Fuel Refilling Stations and Lifting Machines Locations of Fire Stations and their Potential Catchment

Areas

Location of Major Hospitals in Dhaka City Functionality of Major Hospitals

Thank You for Your Patience!

For further information write to:

muradbillah@gamail.com