earthquake risk assessment using...
TRANSCRIPT
Earthquake Risk Assessment
Using HAZUS
Muhammad Murad Billah Senior GIS Coordinator
Can we find any limitation in
RADIUS for risk assessment?
There are 2 major limitation
-Building Type
-Lifeline Inventory
Building Type in RADIUS
Does this explanation provide any idea about the building structure type?
Lifeline Inventory in RADIUS
Lifeline Inventory Damage Result in RADIUS
Can we tell from this result which place is the worst in terms of damage?
What is HAZUS-MH? • Facilitates a risk-based approach to disaster
management
• Calculates scientifically-defensible damages, economic losses, and mitigation benefits
• Identifies and visually displays hazards and vulnerabilities
Loss estimation methodology
1. Define hazard
Loss estimation methodology
2. Define and overlay
Inventory
1. Define hazard
Loss estimation methodology
3. Determine damage
2. Define and overlay
Inventory
1. Define hazard
Loss estimation methodology
4. Estimate losses
3. Determine damage
2. Define and overlay
Inventory
1. Define hazard
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Interface
Inventory Data
• Common to all hazards
How buildings are used and constructed
Lifelines
Replacement Costs
Demographics
• Hazard-specific
Specific building types
Elevation
Building configuration
Three basic steps are required to implement
and run an analysis of losses for an
international study region using HAZUS.
1) Create Study Region
2) Develop Hazard
3) Run Analysis
HAZUS-MH Provided Inventory Data
• General Building Stock
• Essential Facilities
• Hazardous Material Facilities
• High Potential Loss Facilities
• Transportation Lifeline Systems
• Utility Lifeline Systems
• Demographics
General Building Stock
• Includes residential, commercial, industrial, and public service building types
• 36 model buildings types and 28 occupancy classes
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Building Occupancy Classes
Building Occupancy = Building Use Occupancy class is important in determining economic loss, since building value is primarily a function of building use.
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Building Structural Types
Damage is predicted based on building structural type. The key factor in assessing overall building performance, loss of function and casualties.
Building Related Components
Inventory of General Building Stock
• Building Count
• Square Footage
• Occupancy Mapping
• Dollar Exposure
Building Damage
• Capacity Curve
• Structural Fragility Curve
Essential Facilities
• Include hospitals and other medical facilities, police and fire stations, emergency operation centers and schools
Transportation Lifeline Systems
• Include the Airways, Highways, Waterways, Bus Stations
Utility Lifeline Systems
• Include portable water, wastewater, oil, natural gas, electric power, and communication systems
Demographics
• Include total populations: age, gender, and race distribution; income distribution; number of owners and renters; building age; workforce location data.
Demography Related Components Population
• Demographics
• Casualties
Three basic steps are required to implement
and run an analysis of losses for an
international study region using HAZUS.
1) Create Study Region
2) Develop Hazard
3) Run Analysis
Building Related Components
Induced Physical Damage
• Fire Following Earthquake
• Debris Generation
Feature Classes and Tables
bndrygbs.mdb
Earthquake Risk Assessment Methodology
Ground Motion/Site effects Ground Failures
Direct Physical Damage General Building Stock
Essential Facilities Transportation Systems
Utility Systems
Induced Physical Damage Fires, Debris, Inundation, Haz Materials Release
Direct Losses Economic Losses
Casualties
Indirect Losses Indirect Economic Losses
Base Map
Survey
Seismic Hazard Map
Survey & Analysis
Data Preparation HAZUS Analysis
HAZUS Dataset General Building Stock
Essential Facilities Transportation Systems
Utility Systems Spatial Location Physical Characteristics
Vulnerability Mapping
Collection of Quick Bird Image
On Screen Digitization (building, road, water body, open space, hill)
Geo-referencing the Quickbird Image by RTK GPS with the surveyed GCPs
Base line survey with total station
Selection of TIC/GCP on the Image and Establishment of Bench Mark
Development of GIS database as a base map by incorporating attribute
data & field information
Field verification and Attribute information collection
Base Map Development
Cluster Development City (Administrative Boundary)
Ward (Administrative Boundary)
Cluster (Detail area delineation)
Criteria:
-Existing Ward Boundary - Road Network & Waterbody - Homogeneity in building use & structure type -Restricted area
Building floor area
Building count
HAZUS occupancy
HAZUS structural types
Building age/ Quality
Number of occupants
Replacement cost
Cost of contents
Earthquake design code
Tract or Cluster
GIS database
Survey
Other sources
Inventory of Building Stock
Base Map • General Building Stocks
• Essential Facilities
(Emergency Operation, Medical Care, School & University)
Base Map
Field Survey Work - Building
Level I Level II
• Structural type (36 types)
• Occupancy class (33 classes) • Number of stories • Building age (<10, 10-30, >30 yr) • Number of occupants (day, night) • Visible physical condition (poor,
average, good)
• Vulnerability factors (soft story,
heavy overhang etc.)
• Photos of building
Level I +
• Plan sketch • Dimensions of key building components (column size, wall layout etc.)
• Slab system (cast-in-place, pre-cast)
• Vulnerability details (short column, floor opening etc.)
Level III Level 0
35
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More structural types are added to HAZUS to better characterize some typical buildings in local context: Non-engineered RC Building Unreinforced Masonry—Concrete Roof Unreinforced Masonry—Flexible Roof Tin Shed & Bamboo
Concrete Moment Frame with Unreinforced Masonry Walls
Concrete Slab-Column Frame
Lightly Reinforced Concrete Frame (Non-Engineered RC )
Unreinforced Masonry with Concrete Roof & Floor
Unreinforced Masonry with Flexible Roof
Tin Shed
Bamboo
Building Structural Type
Building Vulnerability Factors
% of vulnerabilities in each occupancy
1.5 m
Large opening
Occupancy – Structure Type Correlation Matrix for HAZUS input
Full replacement cost Replacement cost = Construction cost per floor area x floor area
Cost of contents Cost of contents = Replacement cost x CV
CV : Content value from HAZUS Manual
Dollars per Sq-ft
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Apartment Hotel Small shop Office Hospital Government School
18
20
16
24 24
17 18
22
20
15
20
27
22
20
Bangladesh
USx0.2
Local
41
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0 30 60 90 120 150
PGV (cm/s)
Pro
ba
bility
As
A
B
C
Fragility curves of Structural Type A
Probability of extensive damage or collapse is 45 %
D
Ground Shaking Intensity PGV (cm/sec)
Probability of Damage (damage state exceeding probability)
Probability of collapse is 21 %
Spatial location
Building foot-print
HAZUS network type
HAZUS facility type
Physical characteristics
System performance
Replacement cost
Restoration time
Tract or Cluster
GIS database
Survey
Survey & other sources
Inventory of Lifeline
Base Map
• Transportation System (Highway, Railway, Bus, Ferry)
• Utility System (Potable Water, Waste Water, Natural Gas, Electric Power, Communication)
Base Map
Burigangga 2 Bridge
Lifeline Survey – Highway Bridge
Deep Tube Well Overheight Tank
Pump House
Lifeline Survey – Potable Water System
Replacement Value
System Component HAZUS
Label
BD Value
(thous. USD)
HAZUS Value
(thous. USD) Percentage
Highway Major Roads - 4 lanes (cost/km length) HRD1 2,000.00 10,000.00 20.00
Transportation Urban Roads 2 lanes (cost/km length) HRD2 1,000.00 5,000.00 20.00
Highway Bridges HWB See bridge
table - -
Railway Rail Track (cost/km length) RTR1 1,050.00 1,500.00 70.00
Transportation Urban Station RST 400.00 2,000.00 20.00
Fuel Facility RFF 600.00 3,000.00 20.00
Maintenance Facility RMF 560.00 2,800.00 20.00
Dispatch Facility RDF 600.00 3,000.00 20.00
Bus Urban Station BPT 200.00 1,000.00 20.00
Transportation Fuel Facility BFF 30.00 150.00 20.00
Maintenance Facility BMF 260.00 1,300.00 20.00
Dispatch Facility BDF 80.00 400.00 20.00
Ferry Passenger Terminal FPT 200.00 1,000.00 20.00
Transportation Fuel Facility FFF 80.00 400.00 20.00
Maintenance Facility FMF 104.00 520.00 20.00
Dispatch Facility FDF 40.00 200.00 20.00
Potable Water Brittle Pipe PWP1 0.70 1.00 70.00
Ductile Pipe PWP2 0.70 1.00 70.00
Small WTP PWT 30,000.00 30,000.00 100.00
Well PWE 62.86 400.00 15.71
Overhead Tank PSTAS 160.00 800.00 20.00
Small Pumping Plant PPP 150.00 150.00 100.00
Waste Water Brittle Pipe WWP1 0.70 1.00 70.00
Small WWTP WWT 60,000.00 60,000.00 100.00
Small Lift Station WLS 48.00 300.00 16.00
Natural Gas Arc Welded Steel Pipe (cost/break) NGP2 0.69 1.00 68.78
Compressor Station (DRS) NGC 1,000.00 1,000.00 100.00
Electric Power Low Voltage Substation (distribution
transformer ESS 10,000.00 10,000.00 100.00
Distribution Circuit (electric pole) EDC 0.47 3.00 15.71
Communication Central Office (Exchange) CCO 5,000.00 5,000.00 100.00
Radio Station/Transmitter CBR 2,000.00 2,000.00 100.00
TV Station/Transmitter CBT 2,000.00 2,000.00 100.00
• Benchmark Calculation HAZUS value >< local construction cost
- Gas Pipeline
- Potable Water Pipeline
- Electric Distribution Circuit (pole)
• Percentage of HAZUS cost: - 17%: Local product & man-power related works
- 20%: Cost mostly is from structure cost
- 70%: Network lifeline (pipeline)
- 100%: Cost mostly is from equipment cost
Lifeline Restoration Time
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0 5 10 15 20
%fu
nct
ion
al
Time (days)
Restoration Curve for Potable Water Facility
(Moderate Damage)
HAZUS
Bangladesh
• Benchmark Calculation
HAZUS value >< (estimated) local restoration time
- Gas Pipeline
- Electric Distribution Circuit (pole)
- Potable Water Well
• Local restoration time is 4-5 times longer than HAZUS one
Field Survey Activity
Engineers Training Interview
Base Map Verification
Georeference Checking
Building Survey
Lifeline Survey
48
Changing the Scenario
1
7
6
5
4 3
2
Building Density & Occupancy Type
Ward 48
Building Density (Number per km2)
Building Occupancy Class
Nighttime Population
Population Population Density (Number per km2)
Population Density (Number per km2)
Daytime Population
Seismic Vulnerability of Concrete Buildings
Vulnerability Level (Score)
Vulnerability Factor
Transportation System: Highway Transportation System
Essential Facility: Medical Care Facilities
Utility System: Potable Water System
Lifeline Vulnerability
Earthquake Risk Assessment Methodology
Ground Motion/Site effects Ground Failures
Direct Physical Damage General Building Stock
Essential Facilities Transportation Systems
Utility Systems
Induced Physical Damage Fires, Debris, Inundation, Haz Materials Release
Direct Losses Economic Losses
Casualties
Indirect Losses Indirect Economic Losses
Base Map
Survey
HAZUS Dataset General Building Stock
Essential Facilities Transportation Systems
Utility Systems Spatial Location Physical Characteristics
Seismic Hazard Map
Survey & Analysis
Data Preparation HAZUS Analysis
Vulnerability Mapping
• Seismic Hazard Information
Parameters: Soil Class, Liquefaction Susceptibility, Landslide Susceptibility, and Water Depth input in cluster wise
• Earthquake Scenario
- Scenario Case 1: Maximum Earthquake (High Severity)
- Scenario Case 2: Moderate Earthquake (Low Severity)
- Scenario Case 3: Mw=6 Underneath the City (Moderate Severity)
Earthquake Scenarios
Damage to Concrete Buildings
Scenario 1
Number of Conc. Buildings at least moderate damage
Damage Level
Moderate
Extensive
Complete
0-50
50-100
100-150
150-250
250-450
• Transportation System
- Highway Transportation System
- Railway, Bus, and Ferry Transportation System
• Utility System
- Potable Water System
- Waste Water System
- Natural Gas System
- Electric Power and Communication System
Potable Water System Damage
Lifeline Damage
Scenario 1
Casualties
Severity Level 1: Injuries will require medical attention but hospitalization is not needed Severity Level 2: Injuries will require hospitalization but are not considered lift-threatening Severity Level 3: Injuries will require hospitalization and can become lift-threatening if not promptly treated Severity Level 4: Victims are killed by the earthquake
Number of Injuries Levels 2+3+4
0-50
50-150
150-250
250-350
350-600
Possible Damage to Medical Facilities in Dhaka Possible Fire Following Earthquake in Dhaka
Using the Results for
Contingency Planning
Contingency Plan Development
Framework
Establish the Context in Relation to Potential Hazards
Vulnerability Assessment & Loss Estimation
Plan Development at Various Levels
Scenario Development
•Low Risk, Moderate Risk, High Risk
Develop Template for Contingency Plans to Address Needs and Suite Risk Scenarios
Perform Review & Revision After Major
Events or as needed
Review Mandates for Various Levels & Sectors
Extended Roles and
Responsibilities of agencies
Compare with existing and Gap analysis
Training & Capacity Building
Urban planning solutions
Pre-positioning of facilities
Develop a Reporting & M&E Mechanisms
Location of Admin Offices Evacuation Space in Dhaka City
Location of High-rise Building in Dhaka City Highway Transportation System Damage
Location of Temporary Shelters Possible Evacuation Route in Dhaka City
Trapped Population in Dhaka City Location of Search & Rescue Camp
Location of Fuel Refilling Stations and Lifting Machines Locations of Fire Stations and their Potential Catchment
Areas
Location of Major Hospitals in Dhaka City Functionality of Major Hospitals
