dr. le trung tinh dr. le vinh truong toulouse, july august 2014 1

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TAKING CHINA TO COURT& ITS POLITICO-ECONOMIC

IMPACTS

Dr. Le Trung TinhDr. Le Vinh Truong

Toulouse, July August 2014

PlanSoutheast Asian Sea – the settingPersistent negotiationsInitiating a lawsuit - a diplomatic move & a preventive weapon

in international affairsTaking China to court and/or WarPolitical impacts from initiating a lawsuit against ChinaChina’s economic reprisalsConclusions

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1. Southeast Asian Sea – the setting19/01/1974:

Source: http://vnexpress.net/

• 2012, 300 fishermen in Quang Ngai seized by China

• 2013, China changed from arresting into chasing, shooting, ramming Vietnamese fishing boats, destroying fishing instruments, equipment and boats of Vietnamese fishermen

• 2014, «Measures for implementing Chinese Fishery Law of Hainan Province"

Vietnamese fishing boat burnt by Chinese on 20 March 2013

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Haiyang Shiyou-981 (HY-981)

Source: http://www.straight.com

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Protect HY-981: protective vessels attacked ships of Vietnamese functional forces by water cannons

Source: Tuoi Tre

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2. Persistent negotiations?Source: http://www.baomoi.com

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Disadvantage: - Offensive (oil rigs, airplanes, warships)- Devised plans (cutting off cables of Binh Minh 2, introducing U-shaped line, printing U-shaped line in passport…)

Negotiation: Vietnam concession unprofitable solution for international support

Source: Huy Duong and Tuan Pham, Nautilus Institute

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Advantage (?): mild mitigation of China’s encroachment (Ex: COC)

>< Vietnam: trade off economic, political concessions

Negotiation: Regrettable solution

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3. Initiating a lawsuit - a diplomatic move & a preventive weapon in international affairs

Liberalism vs.

Realism

Source: http://rcsinvestments.files.wordpress.com

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Vietnam (small country): make advantage of values from Liberalism (UNCLOS 1982, UN Charter, Int’ Court of Justice, International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea)

Dissuasion weapon preventing tensions to war

“Persistence in peaceful negotiation”, “16 Golden Words”, “4 Goods” not belong to any school of int’ relations intimidation, arrangement

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Suggestion: initiate a lawsuit1. HY-981 International Tribunal for the Law of the

Sea (German)/ International Court of Justice (Netherlands)/ court established in accordance with UNCLOS procedure as in the measure taken by the Philippines

2. Dispute over Paracel archipelago International Court of Justice

Source: http://www.itlos.org

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http://www.viet.rfi.fr/viet-nam/20140125-tren-15000-ngan-chu-ky-vi-hoang-sa-goi-den-lien-hiep-quoc

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http://www.boxitvn.net/bai/26708Lê Trung Tĩnh, Nguyễn Quang AThứ Hai ngày 26/5/2014, Thư yêu cầu lãnh đạo Việt Nam đưa Trung Quốc ra tòa

đã được gửi đến ba nhà lãnh đạo của Việt Nam: ông Trương Tấn Sang, ông Nguyễn Tấn Dũng, và ông Nguyễn Sinh Hùng.

http://boxitvn.blogspot.fr/2014/06/ung-nen-lay-viec-kien-ra-mac-ca.htmlĐừng nên lấy việc kiện ra mặc cả

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4. Taking China to court and/or War

Source: http://projectdoorway.files.wordpress.com

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4.1. Persistent negotiation potential risks of war- Maintain protest at sea by fisheries

surveillance vessels armed conflicts at sea- Localized attacks pressure, fright Vietnam:

either surrender or counterattack war

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4.2. War would not help solving dispute- War unlikely to help settle dispute

thoroughly (from history: 1974, 1979, 1988…)- Legal means each party: fair, free to use

tools (reasoning, evidences), judgment: rational, clear-cut, public, enjoy international recognition

- War crimes + sufferings

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4.3. War erases history- Each party distorts related history for its sake

heroic, pathetic images- Decades disillusioned hope no war

4.4. Lawsuit as means of war prevention

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5. Political impacts from initiating a lawsuit against China

New manner of response to ChinaFree from China’s politico-economic influenceEnhance mutual understanding, reconciliation

among Vietnamese peopleVietnamese: get access to universal values

request justice

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6. China’s possible immediate & short-term economic reprisalsBlock some imports from Vietnam for some

period of time (Ex: Philippines)

Source: http://www.ecvv.com

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7. Long-term macro-economic reprisals related to trade balance, cooperation, investment

Short term: affect Vietnamese people’s living

Medium, long term: solve weaknesses, free from China’s shade more equitable partners (U.S., EU…)

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8. China’s possible economic reprisals in long term

Not easy / ready for China to take economic reprisals (Ex: Philippines, Vietnam’s approval of Law on Vietnamese Sea 21/06/2012)

Economic ties among countries globally monitored, criticized if “unreasonable” and prolonged

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9. ConclusionInitiate a lawsuit against China:

- civilized action- Active form of foreign relations, effective

solution of war prevention- Create positive political impacts

Dealing with economic reprisals Short term: some difficulties Long term: solve problems, weaknesses in economic relations with China

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THANK YOU