dr. gene leon imf senior resident representative, jamaica ......trinidad and tobago dominican...

Dr. Gene Leon

IMF Senior Resident Representative, Jamaica

May 2, 2013

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We can and should do better

Embrace unbounded imagination

Uphold credibility as the handmaiden of ability

Adopt a holistic approach

Can KIDS be a transformative vision?

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Take a hard look at where we are - assess initial conditions

Don‟t get stuck in “glue” – denial is probably the greatest impediment to growth

Summon the „fire‟ to transform – need emotion (passion), confidence, and discipline

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0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

GDP per capita

Trinidad and Tobago St. Lucia Chile Singapore

base= 1980

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

base= 1995

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-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Average Real GDP Growth (%)

Barbados Trinidad & Tobago St. Lucia

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-40.0

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

Current Account (% of GDP)

Barbados Trinidad & Tobago St. Lucia

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0 50 100 150 200

St Kitts and Nevis

Jamaica

Grenada

Barbados

Average

Dominica

St Lucia

St. Vincent and the Grenadines

Trinidad and Tobago

Dominican Republic

Haiti

Caribbean: Public Debt-to-GDP, 2011(Percent)

Source: IMF staff calculations.

9

-10

-5

0

5

10

Average Overall Public Sector Balance (% of GDP)

Barbados St. Lucia Trinidad & Tobago

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St Lucia performed best in…

88

69

64

53

37

1

0 20 40 60 80 100

Barbados

Trinidad and Tobago

Ghana

St Lucia

Chile

Singapore

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St Lucia performed best in… 020406080

100120

Starting a Business

Dealing with Construction

Permits

Getting Electricity Protecting Investors

Paying Taxes

Singapore St Lucia Trinidad and Tobago

12

0

50

100

150

200

Registering Property

Getting Credit

Trading Across Borders

Enforcing Contract

Resolving Insolvency

Singapore St Lucia Trinidad and Tobago

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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Barbados Chile Ghana Singapore St Lucia Trinidad and Tobago

Corruption Perception Index

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0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Ghana St Lucia Trinidad and Tobago

Barbados Chile Singapore

Human Development Index

Halving poverty requires rapid sustained economic growth and a reduction in inequality

Focusing social spending on reducing poverty and hunger, and for investing in human capital

Strengthening social institutions to ensure transparency, efficiency, and accountability

Increasing investment in infrastructure

Implementing early warning systems to reduce vulnerability to natural disasters

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Requires:

◦ Unbounded Imagination

◦ Unlimited exploration

◦ Departure from current paradigm

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Address core areas of development

◦ Consider resource and financial constraints

◦ Develop clear prioritization relative to objectives

◦ Pay attention to sequencing

◦ Stay the course

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In general, we are net importers of: ◦ Capital

◦ Skills

◦ Technology

◦ Energy

Can we be net exporters?

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Transform

Exchange

Create

Extinguish

Transfer

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Build consensus for implementation

◦ Government

◦ Political Parties

◦ Private Sector

◦ Civil Society

◦ Thought Leaders

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Ability takes us 50 percent of the way, the last 50 percent is our choices

Choices build or break credibility

Some choices are more critical than others

Not all choices are equal

(critical)

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Embrace good governance

◦ Transparency

◦ Accountability

◦ Responsibility

◦ Communication

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Governance covers:

◦ Economic policies and regulatory framework

◦ Adherence to the rule of law

◦ Anti-corruption policies that promote trust and build integrity

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Macro Economic

& Financial

Stability

Social

Development

Regulatory

Environment

Institutional

Building

Global

External

Environment

Promotes a functional view to economic development

Fosters linkages

Reduces self-serving behaviors

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Beliefs

Potential

Action

Results

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Technology

Physical Capital

Human Capital

Natural Resources

Social Infrastructure

Aggregate Production Function

REAL GDP

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Natural Resources

Industry

Gas, Oil, Gold

Manufacturing

Qatar Saudi Arabia South Africa

Brazil Germany

Services Logistics, Financial Panama Cayman

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Technology

Physical Capital

Human Capital

Natural Resources

Social Infra-

structure

Aggregate Production Function

REAL GDP

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Knowledge Accumulation

Innovation Diagnostics

Strategies

Develop a value-chain around a backbone

o Infinite supply of knowledge

o vs unlimited supplies of labour (Lewis)

o Creation of high value-added industries

o Can afford higher than subsistence wage

o Many modalities of implementation

o No natural comparative disadvantage to limit boundaries

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KIDS

Avoid thinking there are limits to small physical size or critical mass (economic space)

o Forge linkages across networks (CoPs)

Maintain competitive advantage

o Embrace dynamic change

o Invest in R&D – forward looking vision

o CAPSICUM [Caribbean Association for Plant Science, Industry, Commerce and Use in Medicine]

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KIDS

Archive our cumulated experience in a regional database

Share benefits of sourcing, data entry, and classification

Utilize the accumulated experience of our richly talented diaspora

Broaden with successful endeavors

from the global village

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KIDS

Promote success factors – constant in human existence: o Leverage information into value-added

products

o Create a locus of knowledge excellence

o Leverage educational establishments as complementary knowledge centers

o Establish knowledge tourism

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KIDS

Develop a knowledge locus able to craft specific strategic solutions

Consult to foreign corporations on success

factors relating to opportunities in the region or elsewhere

Develop sub-field specialties at the regional level

Become a net exporter of knowledge capital

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KIDS

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A group of people who share a concern or a passion for something they do and learn how to do it better as they interact regularly (Etienne Wenger)

(e.g., RATS; Farmers)

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Community

of Practice

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Domain: Passion and interest of the

members drives their need to learn

Community: Relationships and

collective learning bind members

together over time

Practice: A shared repertoire of

resources influences members’

work

Community

of Practice

•Standardize best practices, create consistency

•Organize and manage a body of knowledge for members‟ use

Knowledge

Transfer

•Develop a particular capability

•Build and apply intellectual capital to solve challenges

Knowledge

Application

•Create a breakthrough of ideas, knowledge and practices

•Cross boundaries, and capture emerging approaches

Knowledge

Diffusion

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• Improved outcomes

•Efficiencies

• Index and store

•Publish to database

•Collect, vet and store

information and best

practices

•Lower cost

•Reduce Risk

Drivers Key

Activities

Reward Technology

Queensland Police Service

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•Professional assistance

•Creative inspiration

•Greater adoption and

diffusion

•Library

•Threaded discussion

•Enlist key experts

•Build intellectual capital

•Synthesize and apply

knowledge

•Technical Excellence

•Thought Leadership

Drivers Key

Activities

Reward Technology

* Fujitsu Akisai Cloud Initiative

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•Competitive edge

•Entrepreneurship

Resources and Skills

•Face-to-face forums

•Teleconference

•Social media discussions

•Create new

breakthroughs

•Foster adoption of new

approaches

•Technical leadership

Drivers Key

Activities

Reward Technology

Anguilla Commercial Online Registration Network

Can we develop dynamic and sustainable new paradigms? Yes!

Need bold leadership and vision

But buy-in and concerted and collective national responsibility are essential

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Uncertainty Adulthood

Imagination Holistic

Change

KIDS

Responsibility

Credibility Safety Net

Governance

Integrity

Timing Transformative

Vision Create

Emot

ion

Passion

Confidence

Discipline

High Value-Added

Proa

ctive

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