downstream modeling - united states environmental

Downstream ModelingDownstream ModelingDownstream Modeling

EFDC & FCM

EFDC & FCM PSA(10.5 miles)

HSPFWatershed

EFDC & FCMDownstream

(19 miles)

EFDC &EFDC & FCM PSAFCM PSA (10.5 miles)(10.5 miles)

Confluence

Woods Pond Dam

Rising Pond Dam

Pittsfield

Lenox

Stockbridge

Great Barrington

HSPFHSPF WatershedWatershed

EFDC & FCMEFDC & FCM DownstreamDownstream

(19 miles)(19 miles)

Lee

MODEL VALIDATION DOMAIN

Downstream ModelingDownstream Modeling �� 19 Miles in Length19 Miles in Length �� 4938 Grid Cells4938 Grid Cells �� Time period 1990Time period 1990 -- 20042004

Lee

Woods Pond Dam

Columbia Mill Dam

Route 20

�� Willow MillWillow Mill

Mass Pike

Willow Mill Dam

Stockbridge

Route 102

Rising Pond Dam

Glendale Dam

Housatonic

BerthaBertha

FCM Downstream ModelingFCM Downstream Modeling

�� New model domain (Reach 7/8):New model domain (Reach 7/8): �� Different PCB concentrationsDifferent PCB concentrations �� More variable PCB concentrationsMore variable PCB concentrations

�� Currently dataCurrently data--driven; will be linked (indriven; will be linked (in progress)progress)

�� FCM model not calibrated; only customizedFCM model not calibrated; only customized to represent downstream habitatto represent downstream habitat

Downstream Model Domain

Downstream ModelDownstream Model DomainDomainRising

Pond

Woods Pond

Glendale Dam

Lee

Meadow St. Bridge

Reach 7GReach 7G

Reach 7FReach 7F

Reach 7CReach 7C

Reach 7 Validation (DataReach 7 Validation (Data--Based)Based)

Reach 7B

Composite of 11 BG and 1

red-ear sunfish

Composite of 2 LB and 10 rock

bass

Composite of 12 YP

All field data are estimated from fillet composite samples from 1982 sampling

1 10 100 1000

Average Measured tPCB (mg/kg ww) for Age/Species

Reach 7G (Glendale Dam)

(n = 23)

(n = 35)

(n = 13)

(n = 28)

Note: n = number of

composites (5 to 15 fish per composite)

1

10

100

1 10 100

Average Measured tPCB (mg/kg ww) for Age/Species

FCM

Sim

ulat

ed A

vera

ge tP

CB

(mg/

kg w

w)

FCM

Sim

ulat

ed A

vera

ge tP

CB

(mg/

kg w

w)

1000

100

10

1

Bluegill Largemouth BassBluegill (BG) Largemouth Bass (LB)

Pumpkinseed Yellow PerchYellow Perch (YP) Factor of 2.5 Underprediction

Factor of 2.5 Underprediction Factor of 2.5 Overprediction Factor of 2.5 Overprediction 1:1 Slope

1:1 Slope

Rising Pond Validation (DataRising Pond Validation (Data--Based)Based) FC

M S

imul

ated

Ave

rage

tPC

B(m

g/kg

ww

)

100

10

1

Reach 8 (Rising Pond)

1 10 100

Average Measured tPCB (mg/kg ww) for Age/Species

Brown Bullhead Bluegill Bluntnose Minnow Largemouth Bass Pumpkinseed Yellow Perch Factor of 2.5 Underprediction Factor of 2.5 Overprediction 1:1 Slope

Example RunsExample RunsExample Runs