downstream modeling - united states environmental
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Downstream ModelingDownstream ModelingDownstream Modeling
EFDC & FCM
EFDC & FCM PSA(10.5 miles)
HSPFWatershed
EFDC & FCMDownstream
(19 miles)
EFDC &EFDC & FCM PSAFCM PSA (10.5 miles)(10.5 miles)
Confluence
Woods Pond Dam
Rising Pond Dam
Pittsfield
Lenox
Stockbridge
Great Barrington
HSPFHSPF WatershedWatershed
EFDC & FCMEFDC & FCM DownstreamDownstream
(19 miles)(19 miles)
Lee
MODEL VALIDATION DOMAIN
Downstream ModelingDownstream Modeling �� 19 Miles in Length19 Miles in Length �� 4938 Grid Cells4938 Grid Cells �� Time period 1990Time period 1990 -- 20042004
Lee
Woods Pond Dam
Columbia Mill Dam
Route 20
�� Willow MillWillow Mill
Mass Pike
Willow Mill Dam
Stockbridge
Route 102
Rising Pond Dam
Glendale Dam
Housatonic
BerthaBertha
FCM Downstream ModelingFCM Downstream Modeling
�� New model domain (Reach 7/8):New model domain (Reach 7/8): �� Different PCB concentrationsDifferent PCB concentrations �� More variable PCB concentrationsMore variable PCB concentrations
�� Currently dataCurrently data--driven; will be linked (indriven; will be linked (in progress)progress)
�� FCM model not calibrated; only customizedFCM model not calibrated; only customized to represent downstream habitatto represent downstream habitat
Downstream Model Domain
Downstream ModelDownstream Model DomainDomainRising
Pond
Woods Pond
Glendale Dam
Lee
Meadow St. Bridge
Reach 7GReach 7G
Reach 7FReach 7F
Reach 7CReach 7C
Reach 7 Validation (DataReach 7 Validation (Data--Based)Based)
Reach 7B
Composite of 11 BG and 1
red-ear sunfish
Composite of 2 LB and 10 rock
bass
Composite of 12 YP
All field data are estimated from fillet composite samples from 1982 sampling
1 10 100 1000
Average Measured tPCB (mg/kg ww) for Age/Species
Reach 7G (Glendale Dam)
(n = 23)
(n = 35)
(n = 13)
(n = 28)
Note: n = number of
composites (5 to 15 fish per composite)
1
10
100
1 10 100
Average Measured tPCB (mg/kg ww) for Age/Species
FCM
Sim
ulat
ed A
vera
ge tP
CB
(mg/
kg w
w)
FCM
Sim
ulat
ed A
vera
ge tP
CB
(mg/
kg w
w)
1000
100
10
1
Bluegill Largemouth BassBluegill (BG) Largemouth Bass (LB)
Pumpkinseed Yellow PerchYellow Perch (YP) Factor of 2.5 Underprediction
Factor of 2.5 Underprediction Factor of 2.5 Overprediction Factor of 2.5 Overprediction 1:1 Slope
1:1 Slope
Rising Pond Validation (DataRising Pond Validation (Data--Based)Based) FC
M S
imul
ated
Ave
rage
tPC
B(m
g/kg
ww
)
100
10
1
Reach 8 (Rising Pond)
1 10 100
Average Measured tPCB (mg/kg ww) for Age/Species
Brown Bullhead Bluegill Bluntnose Minnow Largemouth Bass Pumpkinseed Yellow Perch Factor of 2.5 Underprediction Factor of 2.5 Overprediction 1:1 Slope
Example RunsExample RunsExample Runs