demographics, migration and growth in...
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Growth and Housing in Washington and Jefferson County
Michael Luis
September 29, 2011
Growth and Migration
A Sound Investment
Affordability
Re-thinking Growth Management
Michael Luis & Associates
Growth and Migration
Michael Luis & Associates
Washington is growing
Michael Luis & Associates
Washington is growing
Michael Luis & Associates
Jefferson County is really growing
Michael Luis & Associates
Jefferson County is aging
Michael Luis & Associates
. . . Far faster than the state
Michael Luis & Associates
Migration has dominated growth
Michael Luis & Associates
Migration really dominates Jefferson growth
Michael Luis & Associates
Migration to the Sunbelt in the 2000s
Michael Luis & Associates
Then the crash
Michael Luis & Associates
In-migration remains strong in Jefferson Co.
Michael Luis & Associates
Where are they coming from?
Michael Luis & Associates
Where are they coming from?
Michael Luis & Associates
Who are they?
Michael Luis & Associates
Who are they?
Michael Luis & Associates
Why do they come here?
Michael Luis & Associates
Implications for Realtors
Michael Luis & Associates
Continued growth in Washington
Disconnect between incomes and house prices
Pent up demand
A Sound Investment
Michael Luis & Associates
Washington homes are a good investment
Michael Luis & Associates
Washington homes are a good investment
Michael Luis & Associates
A nation of renters?
Michael Luis & Associates
1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010
Owner occupied 66.0% 67.6% 66.3% 73.9% 76.1% 74.3%
Renter occupied 34.0% 32.4% 33.7% 26.1% 23.9% 25.7%
Washington Jefferson County
Affordability
Michael Luis & Associates
Affordability
Michael Luis & Associates
Affordability
Michael Luis & Associates
Affordability
Michael Luis & Associates
Affordability
Michael Luis & Associates
Re-thinking growth management
Michael Luis & Associates
Twenty years is enough to see trends
Two key indicators
Single family and multi-family housing
Commute mode splits
No shift in housing type
Michael Luis & Associates
Minor shift in commute mode
Michael Luis & Associates
Time to reexamine GMA
Michael Luis & Associates
Persistence of settlement patterns
Concentrate on jobs-housing balance
New policy drivers will be energy and climate change
Michael Luis & Associates
Thank You!
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