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Demographic trends in Poland over the past 25 years
Krzysztof Tymicki
Demography Unit, Warsaw School of Economics
Driving forces behind demographic trends in Visegrad countries: The
role of migration and family formation
10-11 September 2015, Prague
Crude rate of total population change 5 period moving averages (Source: Eurostat)
The crude rate of population change is the ratio of the population change during the year to the average population in that year. The value is expressed per 1 000 persons. Population change is the difference between the population sizes on 1 January of two consecutive years.
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
European Union (28 countries)
Czech Republic
Hungary
Poland
Slovakia
Approx. 13% of
EU’s population in
2012
The crude rate of population change is the ratio of the population change during the year to the average population in that year. The value is expressed per 1 000 persons. Population change is the difference between the population sizes on 1 January of two consecutive years.
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
European Union (28 countries)
Germany (including former GDR)
France
Italy
United Kingdom
Approx. 40% of
EU’s population in
2012
Crude rate of total population change 5 period moving averages (Source: Eurostat)
Changes in population age structure: Poland vs. EU average compared
33,2 27,2 24,1 25,3
19,8 15,3 15
61 64,6 65,7 64,7
68,1 71,1 70,1
5,8 8,2 10,2 10 12,1 13,6 14,9
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2014
65+ (PL)
15-64 (PL)
0-14 (PL)
0-14+ EU average
65+ EU average
Changes in population age structure Dependency ratio: pop. aged 0-14 and 65+ to pop. aged 15-64
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2014
EU average
Czech Republic
Hungary
Poland
Slovakia
Changes in population age structure Dependency ratio: pop. aged 0-14 and 65+ to pop. aged 15-64
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2014
EU average
Germany
(including
former GDR)Spain
France
Italy
United Kingdom
Changes in population age structure Projections
33,2 27,2 24,1 25,3
19,8 15,3 15 15,3 13,7 12,6 13,2 13 12,9 13,5
61
64,6 65,7 64,7
68,1 71,1 70,1 66,7
63,7 62,4
57,2 54,1 54,8 54,2
5,8 8,2 10,2 10 12,1 13,6 14,9 18 22,6 24,9
29,7 32,9 32,4 32,3
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2014
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
65+ (PL)
15-64 (PL)
0-14 (PL)
Changes in population age structure Projections of dependency ratios
26,4 29,4
35,1 39,2
45,3
49,6 50,7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0,00
0,10
0,20
0,30
0,40
0,50
0,60
0,70
0,80
0,90
1,00
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080
Total Dep. Ratio
Young-age Dep. Ratio
Old-age Dep. Ratio
Median Age of Population
Changes in mortality patterns Life expectancy at birth
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
Females
average
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
Males
average
70,6
67,2
81,2 73,
1
Average calculated for: Belgium, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Germany (including former GDR), Estonia, Hungary, Portugal, Slovakia, Iceland, Norway, Switzerland (Source: Eurostat)
15% growth in life exp. at birth for Polish women between 1960 and 2013 (10,6 years). Growth for avearge from 11
countries: 13% (9,7 years)
12% growth in life exp. at birth for Polish men between 1960 and 2013 (8 years). Growth for avearge from 11 countries:
13% (9 years)
Changes in fertility patterns Period Total Fertility Rates 1960-2013
1,00
1,50
2,00
2,50
3,00
3,50
4,00
4,50
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
average EUR*
Poland
France
Portugal
Ireland
Denmark
Slovakia
*calculated for: Belgium, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Ireland, Greece, France, Italy, Hungary, Netherlands, Austria, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Finland, Norway, Switzerland
Changes in fertility patterns Cohort fertility rates
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
20 25 30 35
Co
mp
lete
d f
erti
lity
Age
1946
1956
1963
1966
1971
1976
1980
Source: own calculations based on CSO registration data
below 2 at age 35
Below 1 at age 25
Below 1 at age 35
PL
AT
NO
CH
BG PT
HU
RUS
CR
JP
SK
US
FI
NL
SE
1,4
1,5
1,6
1,7
1,8
1,9
2,0
2,1
5,0
%
7,5
%
10,0
%
12,5
%
15,0
%
17,5
%
20,0
%
22,5
%
25,0
%
27,5
%
Co
mp
lete
d f
erti
lity
by a
ge 4
0
% of childless women by age 40
Changes in fertility patterns Completed fertility and childlessness: cohort 1969
Source: Human Fertility Database
average
ave
rage
Changes in fertility and nuptiality patterns % of Extramarital births
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Iceland
Denmark
Hungary
Czech
Republic
Slovakia
Italy
Poland
Extramarital births and bridal
pregnancies
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
193
1-1
93
6
193
7-1
94
2
194
3-1
94
8
194
9-1
95
4
195
5-1
96
0
196
1-1
96
6
196
7-1
97
2
197
3-1
97
8
197
9+
Hungary France Poland
9%
9%
9%
10%
10%
10%
10%
11%
13%
14%
14%
15%
16%
17%
16%
17%
18%
20%
22%
23%
25%
25%
26%
26%
26%
27%
51%
52%
52%
52%
53%
54%
53%
51%
49%
48%
47%
46%
45%
44%
44%
42%
40%
37%
35%
34%
32%
32%
31%
31%
28%
26%
40%
40%
39%
38%
37%
36%
37%
38%
38%
38%
38%
39%
39%
39%
40%
41%
42%
43%
43%
43%
43%
43%
43%
43%
45%
48%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
first births conceived maritally
first births conceived pre-maritally (bridal pregnancy)
first birth extramarital
Distribution of births conceived extramaritally but
delivered in marriage by month of pregnancy
during wedding
Source: Registration of births, Central Statistical Office, Poland
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
0 1 3 4 6 7 9
miesiąc ciąży
1985
Month of pregnancy
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
0 1 3 5 6 8
miesiąc ciąży
2009
Distribution of births conceived extramaritally but
delivered in marriage by month of pregnancy
during wedding
Source: Registration of births, Central Statistical Office, Poland
Month of pregnancy
Future of Population trends in Poland
Further changes in population structure leading to
decrease in number of youth, increasing number of old
Increase in life expectancy for both males and females
up to the limit marked by the most advanced
countries
Fertility as measured by TFR around level of 1,5.
Further postponement of age at first childbearing,
declining transition to third and second parity
Potentially increasing childlesness
Proliferation of informal unions
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