decision basis and sustainable development – climate change

BalticClimate

Decision basis and sustainable development – climate change

Bengt RydellSwedish Geotechnical Institute

BalticClimate

Climate change scenarios

Sea level rise

Increased/decreased precipitation

Higher temperatures

Sea level scenario

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Climate change - increased risks for natural hazards

Coastal Erosion

Flooding

Landslides

Photo: Ystad city

Photo: SMHI

Photo: SGI

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Needs for action…

Buildings

Industries and contaminated land

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…new challenges

Photo: Vägverket

Foto: Vägverket

Transport infrastructure Dams and water power plants

Water supply and sewage plants

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Decision basis and risk assessment due to climate change

• Spatial planning

• Precautionary measures

• Adaptation activities

• New possibilities

Photo: Bengt Olof Olsson

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Decision basis -natural risk management

Problem analysis and risk assessment

Decision basis for adaptation measures

Basis for spatial planning

Information gathering• Geology/geotechnical prerequisites• Protecting structures• Current and historical hazards• Assets (economic, environmental etc.)

Analysis incl climate change• Potential hazards• Potential risk areas

• Need for precautionary measures• Constraints for development• Natural hazards ”hot spots”

• Protective measures• Adaptation activities

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Climate adaptation – build environment

- identify vulnerability and risk levels

- adaptation and reinforcement

- permanent and/or temporary reinforcements

Foto: SMHI

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Climate change and spatial planning

- planning conditions (soil and water)

- local and regional perspective

- long term planning focus

- precautionary measures

- security and flexibility

Foto: SMHI

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Flexibility?

10

Photo: SMHI

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Model for sustainable development

Foto: RIKZ

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Practical applications

Ystad

Åhus

Photo: Metria

Helsingborg

Jönköping

Mora

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Potential risk areas – developing areas

Risk areas

Risk areas

Hazards 2100

LandslideFloodingDune erosionErosion

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New sports ground – and protecting area

14

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Improved recreational and bathing areas

15

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Innovative technology – business potential

16