dealing with the certainty of uncertainty: some …...dealing with the certainty of uncertainty:...

Dealing with the Certainty of Uncertainty:

Some Reflections Andrew Buchan The Safety and Reliability Society

Let’s be honest

•

Where is the Uncertainty?

Belief and Uncertainty

Is Uncertainty a bad thing ?

• Uncertainty can amplify Risk

• Precautionary Principle approach

• Influences Risk Appetite

Probability

Consequence The chosen boundary of the plant safety case envelope

The “real” boundary of the plant safety envelope

Getting more specific

Probability

Consequence The chosen boundary of the plant safety case envelope

The “real” boundary of the plant safety envelope

A More Difficult Place

Some Areas for Consideration • Context

• Consequence • Certainty • Age • Types • Data • Models • Approaches • Some events

Uncertainty of Context

PCM ?

Uncertainty of Consequence

Uncertainty is Certain • The Heisenberg

uncertainty principle is the statement of the inherent measurement uncertainty in quantum mechanics. It states that the more precisely a particle's position is known, the less precisely its momentum is known, and vice versa.

Does it improve with age? • John Finley, English

historian and mathematician tells us: "Maturity of mind is the capacity to endure uncertainty”

• Confidence: The feeling you have just before you fully understand the situation

• Dunning Kruger Effect

Types of Uncertainty

• Some Long Words

• Aleatory

• Epistemic

• Ontological

Uncertainty of Data • I know what you’re

thinking: 'Did he fire six shots or only five?' Well, to tell you the truth, in all this excitement, I’ve kinda lost track myself…….. you’ve got to ask yourself one question: 'Do I feel lucky?'

Well, do you, punk?

Uncertainty of the Model

• The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias wherein relatively unskilled individuals suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly assessing their ability to be much higher than is accurate. This bias is attributed to a metacognitive inability of the unskilled to accurately evaluate their own ability level

Mumbai High North

• Cook cut fingers • Transferred to Rig • Vessel hit Rig Riser • Fire escalated • Helicopter Inoperable

• Composite effects ?

A useful approach ?

• Uncertainty in various parts of the overall model

• Use signs of uncertainty to our favour

• Active Risk Management

• Positive Safety Culture

Ontological Uncertainty • Well who would have

thought that would would happen ?

• Large events often have multiple sub causes

• How does uncertainty affects this

• Can we spot this ?

Owned by a Russian Company based in Switzerland and Registered in Cyprus. chartered by the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines IRISL

Carrying explosive from Iran to Lataka Syria for probable eventual use by Hamas in Gaza . Stopped and Searched by US forces in Red sea later detained in Limassol

MT Monchegorsk

The consequences • 13 deaths • 62 injured • Island lost 60% electrical generating capacity

due to loss of Vasilikos Power Station which in early July had an output of 650 Mw

• Debris and blast damage out to 5 km • 2 Ministers immediately resigned, ongoing

demonstrations • Rioting in Nicosia for a week afterwards • € 1 Bn + damage later revised down to 400m

Conclusions • UN Resolution 1747 generated a set of circumstances for which a

small country was unprepared. • Cypriot Government primarily viewed this as a Political problem • Political considerations took precedence over offers of assistance • An authoritarian President remained ignorant of the problem, a fear

and a blame culture seeded lack of communication and indecision • The chosen location and storage arrangement guaranteed an

explosion with maximum consequences • There was no hazard assessment, basis for storage, Governance

or Regulation • The disaster evolved – opportunities to remove, intercept then

mitigate were missed • Information not passed to power station or fire service • There was no ER plan but the time of the explosion minimised the

number of casualties

• Faith, Hope and Clarity

Upcoming SaRS events Safety and Reliability London Dinner 2015 When: Thursday, 24th September 2015 Where: Royal Over-Seas League, Over-Seas House, Park Place, St James’s Street, London SW1A 1LR Who: The speaker for this dinner is Rear Admiral (retd) Paul Thomas CB, FREng, FCGI, FIMechE, HonFNucI, HonFSaRS SaRS2015: Leadership and Management in Safety Culture When: Thursday 8th October 2015 Where: Bristol Marriott Hotel City Centre, 2 Lower Castle Street, Bristol BS1 3AD Who: The Keynote Speaker is Air Marshal Sir Barry Thornton KCB