crystal goodison & alexis thomas university of...

Crystal Goodison & Alexis Thomas University of Florida GeoPlan Center

Photo Credits: Susan Stocker, Sun Sentinel

A1A Fort Lauderdale, Hurricane Sandy,

October 2012

FAU’s Research Report (completed Jan 2012)

Comprehensive analysis of SLR projections, studies, models and methodologies used in Florida. Resulting recommendations:

(1) Apply U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) methodology to develop statewide and regional projections of SLR (2) Develop a sketch planning tool to identify potentially vulnerable infrastructure

UF GeoPlan Center Research

* Implement FAU recommendations

*Phase 1: Feb 2012 - Oct 2013, Phase 2: Dec 2013 – August 2015

Map Inundation: Map where & when inundation is projected to occur in Florida. Use USACE methods to develop statewide and regional sea level change projections by decade 1992 - 2100.

Develop GIS planning tool to facilitate identification of transportation infrastructure potentially at risk to projected sea level changes.

Florida Department of Transportation, Office of Policy Planning • Maria Cahill, Project Manager

University of Florida GeoPlan Center • Crystal Goodison, Principle Investigator – Phase 2 • Alexis Thomas, Principle Investigator – Phase 1 • Russell Watkins, Ph.D, Co-PI – Phase 1 • Reginald Pierre-Jean, Software Developer • Katherine Norris, GIS Analyst • Sam Palmer, GIS Analyst • Daniel Downing, Web GIS Specialist • Lance Barbour, Systems Administrator

USACE Sea Level Change Projections & Methods

Digital Elevation Model

NOAA Tide Gauge Data & Sea Level Trends

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8724580 - Key West, FL: 2.2 (mm/yr)

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USACE Sea Level Change Projections

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8724580 - Key West, FL: 2.2 (mm/yr)

USACE High Rate

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2060 6 – 27 in

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2030 3 - 10 in

• Hundreds of GIS layers, each representing a SLR Scenario:

Where Scenario =

Region, Year, Projection, Tidal Datum

• Region: statewide or for FDOT District

• Year: decadal intervals, 2040 – 2100

• USACE Projection: (1) low/ historic, (2) intermediate (3) high

• Tidal Datums: MHHW, MHW, MSL, MLW, MLLW

• Model output: Bathtub and hydro-connected inundation

Mapping SLR Inundation: Output Data Layers

Bathtub Inundation

Inundation with Hydro- connectivity filter

SLR Inundation Data Layers

• Intersected inundation layers with

transportation layers: roadways, rails, rail

freight connectors, SIS airports, SIS sea

ports

• Focus on State owned facilities

• Planning horizons: 2040, 2060, 2080, 2100

• Outputs: GIS layers identifying potentially

at-risk transportation facilities w/

approximate miles or area affected/

inundated

Map Inundation: Map where & when inundation is projected to occur in Florida. Use USACE methods to develop statewide and regional sea level change projections by decade 1992 - 2100.

Develop GIS planning tool to facilitate identification of transportation infrastructure potentially at risk to projected sea level changes.

Map Viewer

• Visualize areas of inundation and affected infrastructure

• Low technical expertise needed, no GIS software needed

GIS Data Layers

• SLR Inundation Surfaces & Affected Infrastructure layers

• GIS Software and intermediate GIS expertise needed

SLR Inundation Surface Calculator

• Create custom inundation layers

• Intermediate/ Advanced technical/ GIS expertise needed

View animation of projected inundation over time periods (2040-2100)

Map Viewer - Sea Level Scenario Sketch Planning Tool

Map Viewers available by FDOT District (7 districts in FL)

View transportation facilities potentially exposed to inundation various SLR scenarios.

Available transportation layers by scenario

Map Viewer - Sea Level Scenario Sketch Planning Tool

View details about affected facilities/ infrastructure under various SLR scenarios

Map Viewer - Sea Level Scenario Sketch Planning Tool

Currently supported on ArcMap 10.1 and 10.2.2, requires Spatial Analyst

Inputs: • NOAA tide gauge data • USACE curve • Year (decade 2020-2100) • Tidal Datum • DEM Outputs • Bathtub model • Hydro-connectivity filter • Vector & Raster formats

Data Enhancements: • Update transportation layers • Add critical facilities • Create bridge deck elevation layer • Add NOAA SLR curves?

Tool Enhancements:

• Map Viewer update

• Improvements to SLR Calculator

Add other inundation risks • Storm surge & inland flooding

http://sls.geoplan.ufl.edu *Map Viewers *GIS Data * ArcMap SLR Calculator

* Reports and supporting documentation

Crystal Goodison

goody@geoplan.ufl.edu

352-392-2351

Related Session:

Friday, Sept. 18, 10:30am – 11:45am

Breakout 27: Integrating Resilience into Existing Management Tools, NAS 120

Applying the Sea-Level Scenario Sketch Planning Tool to Enhance the Resilience of Long-Range Transportation Plans: Lessons Learned from Two Florida MPOs