critical deep sea research areas derived from failure modeling of the great bp oil spill

Critical Deep Sea Research Areas Derived from Failure Modeling of the Great BP Oil Spill

Critical Deep Sea Research Areas Derived from Failure Modeling of the Great BP Oil Spill

Ira Leifer

University of California, Santa BarbaraHydrate Consortium Meeting, Oct. 27 2010

And then life changed . .

What was happening at the seabed? Egads!!

Lets pretend it’s a seep!!

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Ira, are you serious?

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Yes!

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Note: joke about the spherical cow!

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A non-uniform flow

Model Schematic

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If you care… see Rehder et al. 2009

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Rehder et al. 2009

Does the model work (above HSF)?

Does the model work (inside HSF)?

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Short Notice: Hydrate Solubility

COP Seep Field Blowout - 0.4 m3/s

Vup ~ 2 - 3 m/s

Pre-ejection t = 0.6 s t = 1.2 s

Leifer et al. 2006 Leifer et al. 2010

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Hydrate-free Deep Bubbles

Vup = 30 cm/s

Depth effects enhance bubble longevity

Bubble Outgassing Trend

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Data…

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Camilli et al. 2010Methane (and oil) in a 1100 m layer

C2+ in surface layer

C5+ in atmosphere in a plume structure in reservoir ratios (NOAA, P3, Ryerson)

C3-C5 (isomers, etc) proportional to solubility (NOAA, P3, Ryerson)

Remote Sensing Detour

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Remote Sensing Detour(2)(Physics-based quantitative oil thickness)

Remote Sensing Detour(3)

Remote Sensing Detour(4)

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Fig. 14b. Mapping results for oil-to-water ratio for a portion of AVIRIS run 11. The width of the scene is ~5.5 km; north is ~4 o'clock. Black areas on the right are where no thick oil was detected. The center of this image is about 12 km WSW of the incident site.

Remote Sensing Detour(5)

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Fig. 14b. Mapping results for oil-to-water ratio for a portion of AVIRIS run 11. The width of the scene is ~5.5 km; north is ~4 o'clock. Black areas on the right are where no thick oil was detected. The center of this image is about 12 km WSW of the incident site.

Key pt: Fresh Oil reaches surface in coherent patches

Summary…C1 (and oil) in a 1100 m layer

C2+ in surface layer peaked at about the thermocline

C5+ in atmosphere in a plume structure in reservoir ratios (NOAA, P3, Ryerson)

C3-C5 (isomers, etc) proportional to solubility (NOAA, P3, Ryerson)

Oil surfaces in a plume

Vertical distribution not a decreasing exponential

No evidence of bubbles reaching the sea surface

HyFlux - Methane reaches the sea surface, bubbles to 150 m

Summary…C1 (and oil) in a 1100 m layer

C2+ in surface layer peaked at about the thermocline

C5+ in atmosphere in a plume structure in reservoir ratios (NOAA, P3, Ryerson)

C3-C5 (isomers, etc) proportional to solubility (NOAA, P3, Ryerson)

Oil surfaces in a plume

Vertical distribution not a decreasing exponential

Data Inconsistent with Bubbles

No evidence of bubbles reaching the sea surface

HyFlux - Methane reaches the sea surface, bubbles to 150 m

Wait... talk not over….

Bubble Plume Schematic

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Field Plume Behavior (COP)

intrusion

Slows at thermocline

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Field Plume Behavior (GOM)

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Solomon et al 2009

Deep Spill 1 (Norway)

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No bubble detrainment, large (2 mm) bubbles

A hypothesis model

Bu

bble

Driven

Plum

e

Oil Outgassing

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Oil

Driven

Plum

e

Oil

Ou

tGa

ses

Areas for research>what happened at 1100 m?>What is the behavior of an oil driven plume?>How does oil outgas in the mid-water column?