copyright(c)2012 juan b. morales phd ccp 1 wmta october 2012 juan b. morales de la garza ph.d. ccp...

Copyright(c)2012 Juan B. Morales PhD CCP1

WMTA October 2012

Juan B. Morales de la Garza Ph.D. CCP RUIZ-MORALES & ASSOCIATES

October 17th 2012Tel :(01152664) 686-4116 Fax: (01152664) 686-1998

Email: ruizmorales@prodigy.net.mx www.ruiz-morales.com.mx

Labor and Economic Indicators Update for 2012

Copyright(c)2012 Juan B. Morales PhD CCP2

PRESENTATION PRESENTATION OBJECTIVESOBJECTIVES

1.0 Employment Indicators 1.1 Tijuana Turnover

1.2 Tijuana Absenteeism 1.3 Unemployment

2.0 IMMEX Report

3.0 Banxico Survey

4.0 Additional Comments: Labor Reform

5.0 2013 Minimum Wage Projection

Copyright(c)2012 Juan B. Morales PhD CCP3

1.1 1.1 Voluntary Employee Turnover Voluntary Employee Turnover

Slightly Higher than 2011

Copyright(c)2012 Juan B. Morales PhD CCP4

1.2 1.2 Total Tijuana Employee AbsenteeismTotal Tijuana Employee Absenteeism

Slightly Higher than 2011

Copyright(c)2012 Juan B. Morales PhD CCP5

1.3 Unemployment 1.3 Unemployment 1Q 20121Q 2012

Baja California (5.7%) Higher than National (4.9%)

2Q 2012

Baja California (6.1%) Higher than National (4.8%)

Copyright(c)2012 Juan B. Morales PhD CCP6

1.3 Unemployment1.3 Unemployment 1Q 2012 1Q 2012

Baja California (5.7%) 6.4% Males 4.6% Females 2Q 20122Q 2012 Baja California (6.1%) 6.6% Males 5.3% Females

Copyright(c)2012 Juan B. Morales PhD CCP7

2.0 EMPLOYMENT INDICATORS2.0 EMPLOYMENT INDICATORSTotal IMMEX Establishments 6,279:Total IMMEX Establishments 6,279: Manufacturing: 5,094 (81.1%)Non-Manufacturing: 1,185 (18.9%)

IMMEX Manufacturing Establishments / Establecimientos Manufactureros IMMEX% de los Establecimientos

% Crecimiento Establecimientos Crecimiento de Establecimientos Establecimientos IMMEX IMMEX Totales% Growth: Establishments Growth: Establishments IMMEX Establishments % of Total IMMEX

Jun 2012 vs Jun 2011 Jun 2012 vs Jun 2011 Jun 2012 Establishments

Tijuana -3.7% -21 541 10.6%Tecate -6.0% -8 126 2.5%Mexicali 0.0% 0 155 3.0%Ensenada 0.0% 0 92 1.8%

B.C. -3.1% -29 914 17.9%

National 0.2% 10 5,094 100.0%

Chih. -1.0% -5 474 9.3%

Coahuila 3.1% 12 394 7.7%

N.L -0.3% -2 661 13.0%

Tamps. -0.5% -2 365 7.2%Fuente: Elaboración Propia con datos del INEGI

Copyright(c)2012 Juan B. Morales PhD CCP8

2.0 EMPLOYMENT INDICATORS2.0 EMPLOYMENT INDICATORSTotal IMMEX Employment 2’206,837 :Total IMMEX Employment 2’206,837 : Manufacturing: 1,966,906 (89.1%)Non-Manufacturing: 239,931 (10.9%)

IMMEX Manufacturing Employment / Empleo Manufacturero IMMEX% Empleo Total IMMEX

% Crecimiento Empleo IMMEX Crecimiento del Empleo IMMEX Empleo IMMEX % of Total % IMMEX Employment Growth IMMEX Employment Growth IMMEX Employment IMMEX Employment

Jun 2012 vs Jun 2011 Jun 2012 vs Jun 2011 Jun 2012 Jun 2012

Tijuana 0.4% 584 153,672 7.8%Tecate -7.1% -780 10,232 0.5%Mexicali 1.9% 941 49,206 2.5%Ensenada 14.5% 2,301 18,215 0.9%

B.C. 1.3% 3,046 231,325 11.8%

National 5.7% 105,614 1,966,906 100.0%

Chih. 7.0% 17,884 273,110 13.9%

Coahuila 7.9% 13,853 189,819 9.7%

N.L 2.5% 5,754 232,024 11.8%

Tamps. 4.5% 7,258 167,825 8.5%Fuente: Elaboración Propia con datos del INEGI

Copyright(c)2012 Juan B. Morales PhD CCP9

2.0 EMPLOYMENT INDICATORS2.0 EMPLOYMENT INDICATORSIMMEX Manufacturing Employment IMMEX Manufacturing Employment 1,966,906:Hired Directly: 1,482,620 (75.4%)Sub-Contracted: 484,286 (24.6%)

IMMEX Manufacturing Employment (Contracted Directly and Subcontracted) / Empleo Manufacturero IMMEX (Contratado Directamente y Subcontratado)

Empleo IMMEX % Empleo IMMEX

Empleo IMMEX SubContratado Contratado Directamente% Crecimiento Empleo IMMEX Empleo IMMEX IMMEX Employment % IMMEX Employment IMMEX Employment % IMMEX Employment% IMMEX Employment Growth IMMEX Employment Hired Directly Hired Directly Subcontracted Hired Directly

Jun 2012 vs Jun 2011 Jun 2012 Jun 2012 Jun 2012 Jun 2012 Jun 2012

Tijuana 0.4% 153,672 145,234 94.5% 8,438 5.5%Tecate -7.1% 10,232 9,582 93.6% 650 6.4%Mexicali 1.9% 49,206 43,524 88.5% 5,682 11.5%Ensenada 14.5% 18,215 17,700 97.2% 515 2.8%

B.C. 1.3% 231,325 216,040 93.4% 15,285 6.6%

National 5.7% 1,966,906 1,482,620 75.4% 484,286 24.6%

Chih. 7.0% 273,110 229,837 84.2% 43,273 15.8%

Coahuila 7.9% 189,819 124,002 65.3% 65,817 34.7%

N.L 2.5% 232,024 155,807 67.2% 76,217 32.8%

Tamps. 4.5% 167,825 148,587 88.5% 19,238 11.5%Fuente: Elaboración Propia con datos del INEGI

Copyright(c)2012 Juan B. Morales PhD CCP10

Copyright(c)2012 Juan B. Morales PhD CCP11

Copyright(c)2012 Juan B. Morales PhD CCP12

4.0 Additional Comments: Labor Reform4.0 Additional Comments: Labor Reform

First Minimum Wage Negociation for the New Sexenium:

-- Questions that must be Answered:

Congress – Final Version of the Labor Reform…

-- Labor Reform and ??? Fiscal Reform ???.

Other Considerations:

USA – Obama o Romney ???

Mexico’s Window of Oportunity vs China…

Copyright(c)2012 Juan B. Morales PhD CCP13

5.0 Minimum Wage for 20135.0 Minimum Wage for 2013

Copyright(c)2012 Juan B. Morales PhD CCP14

5.0 Minimum Wage for 20135.0 Minimum Wage for 2013

Minimum Wage Trends 2006 ($48.67) – 2012 ($62.33):

Copyright(c)2012 Juan B. Morales PhD CCP15

5.0 Minimum Wage for 20135.0 Minimum Wage for 2013R-M Projection: 4.5% and 5.5%R-M Projection: 4.5% and 5.5%

Minimum Wage as a Macroeconomic Variable:

Copyright(c)2012 Juan B. Morales PhD CCP16

Dr. Juan B. Morales de la Garza CCP DESPACHO RUIZ-MORALES Y ASOCIADOS

Thank You !Questions ?