cops - france

COPS - FRANCECOPS - FRANCE

LA, ToulouseIPSL, ParisCNRM, ToulouseLaMP, Clermont-Ferrand

AANNRRAgence nationale de la

recherche

COPS - France Instrumentation on supersite V

Lidar Juan Cuesta Radar Joël Van Baelen

Reinforcement of the GPS network Cédric Champollion

Safire Falcon / Leandre II operation Cyrille Flamant

Numerical modelling Jean-Pierre Chaboureau Evelyne Richard

High-resolution assimilation Pierre Brousseau Olivier Caumont

Meso-NHMeso-NH

IOP 8BIOP 8B

Other case studies …see ChaboureauOther case studies …see Chaboureau

DLR Poldirad at Waltenheim sur Zorn

14:00 UTC14:00 UTC 14:20 UTC14:20 UTC 14:40 UTC14:40 UTC 15:00 UTC15:00 UTC

15:20 UTC15:20 UTC 15:40 UTC15:40 UTC 16:00 UTC16:00 UTC

IOP 8B : 15 July 2007IOP 8B : 15 July 2007

Montancy radar observationsMontancy radar observations

(2dBz contour – PPI 1°)(2dBz contour – PPI 1°)

Meso-NH (2km - ECMWF driven)Meso-NH (2km - ECMWF driven)

(0.1 mm precip contour)(0.1 mm precip contour)

12:15 – 13:0012:15 – 13:0013:15 – 14:0013:15 – 14:00

14:15 – 15:0014:15 – 15:0015:15 – 16:0015:15 – 16:00

Time evolution : Time evolution : Observation versus simulationObservation versus simulation

12:15 – 13:0012:15 – 13:0013:15 – 14:0013:15 – 14:00

14:15 – 15:0014:15 – 15:0015:15 – 16:0015:15 – 16:00

Time evolution :Time evolution :Observation versus simulationObservation versus simulation

Meso-NHMeso-NH (2km - ARPEGE driven) (2km - ARPEGE driven)(0.1 mm precip contour)(0.1 mm precip contour)

Montancy radarMontancy radar observations observations(2dBz contour – PPI 1°)(2dBz contour – PPI 1°)

Montancy radarMontancy radar observations observations

(2dBz contour – PPI 1°)(2dBz contour – PPI 1°)

Meso-NH Meso-NH ((2km2km - ECMWF driven) - ECMWF driven)

(0.1 mm precip contour)(0.1 mm precip contour)

12:15 – 13:0012:15 – 13:0013:15 – 14:0013:15 – 14:00

14:15 – 15:0014:15 – 15:0015:15 – 16:0015:15 – 16:00

Time evolution (close up view) : Time evolution (close up view) : Observation versus Observation versus simulationsimulation

Montancy radarMontancy radar observations observations

(2dBz contour – PPI 1°)(2dBz contour – PPI 1°)

Meso-NHMeso-NH ( (500m500m - ECMWF driven) - ECMWF driven)

(0.1 mm precip contour)(0.1 mm precip contour)

12:15 – 13:0012:15 – 13:0013:15 – 14:0013:15 – 14:00

14:15 – 15:0014:15 – 15:0015:15 – 16:0015:15 – 16:00

Time evolution : Time evolution : Observation versus simulationObservation versus simulation

2km Meso-NH simulation : 13:00 UTCSurface streamlines / CAPE / precipitation ( )

ECMWFECMWF ARPEGEARPEGE

2km Meso-NH simulation : 14:00 UTCSurface streamlines / CAPE / precipitation ( )

ECMWFECMWF ARPEGEARPEGE

Vertical cross sections of reflectivity along storm propagationVertical cross sections of reflectivity along storm propagation

Meso-NH (2km - Meso-NH (2km - ECMWF ECMWF driven)driven)

Meso-NH (2km - Meso-NH (2km - ARPEGEARPEGE driven) driven)

Conlusion High sensitivity to initial conditions More convection with ARPEGE CI than with ECMWF CI (… with the truth in

between!) Earlier triggering with ARPEGE CI (too early) but a more realistic life cycle Major role of the low-level convergence

No significant improvement when : Resolution is increased from 2km to 500m(Triggering occurs too much upwind 3D turbulence is accounted for(very weak impact)

More on that topic : Trentmann (U. Mainz) and More on that topic : Trentmann (U. Mainz) and Cardwell (U. Manchester)Cardwell (U. Manchester)

Méso-NH (500m – ECMWF driven)1dBz reflectivity contour

12:15 – 13:0012:15 – 13:0013:15 – 14:0013:15 – 14:00

14:15 – 15:0014:15 – 15:0015:15 – 16:0015:15 – 16:00

Montancy Radar ObservationsMontancy Radar Observations

Meso-NH simulation (ECMWF)Meso-NH simulation (ECMWF) Meso-NH simulation (ARPEGE)Meso-NH simulation (ARPEGE)

15/07/0715/07/07

12:15 – 13:0012:15 – 13:0013:15 – 14:0013:15 – 14:00

14:15 – 15:0014:15 – 15:0015:15 – 16:0015:15 – 16:00

Time evolution :Time evolution :Impact of the turbulence Impact of the turbulence scheme (1D/3D)scheme (1D/3D)

Meso-NH (2km – Meso-NH (2km – 1D turbulence1D turbulence))(0.1 mm precip contour)(0.1 mm precip contour)

Meso-NH (2km – Meso-NH (2km – 3D turbulence3D turbulence))(0.1 mm precip contour)(0.1 mm precip contour)

12:15 – 13:0012:15 – 13:0013:15 – 14:0013:15 – 14:00

14:15 – 15:0014:15 – 15:0015:15 – 16:0015:15 – 16:00

Time evolution :Time evolution :Impact of the initial / forcing Impact of the initial / forcing conditions conditions

Meso-NH (2km - Meso-NH (2km - ARPEGEARPEGE driven) driven)(0.1 mm precip contour)(0.1 mm precip contour)

Meso-NH (2km - Meso-NH (2km - ECMWFECMWF driven) driven)(0.1 mm precip contour)(0.1 mm precip contour)

Meso-NH (Meso-NH (500m500m – ECMWF driven) – ECMWF driven) (0.1 mm precip contour)(0.1 mm precip contour)

12:15 – 13:0012:15 – 13:0013:15 – 14:0013:15 – 14:00

14:15 – 15:0014:15 – 15:0015:15 – 16:0015:15 – 16:00

Time evolution : Time evolution : Impact of the resolution Impact of the resolution (2km/ 500m) (2km/ 500m)

Meso-NH (Meso-NH (2km 2km - ECMWF driven)- ECMWF driven)(0.1 mm precip contour)(0.1 mm precip contour)

Meso-NH Forecasts http://mesonh.aero.obs-mip.fr/mesonh/cops/

• 3 domains (32, 8, and 2 km) with 2-way interaction. •Vertical grid with 50 levels up to 20 km with a grid length varying from 60 m to 600 m.• Initial and coupling fields with ECMWF operational forecasts• 30 h forecast starting at 00 UTC• Parameterization schemes: o 1.5-order turbulence scheme o ECMWF radiation package o ISBA surface scheme o Mixed-phase bulk microphysics: cloud, rain, ice, snow, graupel, and hail (hail is simulated for the inner model only) o Deep and shallow convection scheme for the 32 and 8 km models only

Outline

Basic model evaluation Raingauges precipitation measurementsMeteosat IR observations

An example of an isolated thunderstorm forecast 15 July

24h precipitation (P30h – P06h): 04 July 2007 (J185)24h precipitation (P30h – P06h): 04 July 2007 (J185)

Precip evaluation :Precip evaluation :

• BW stationsBW stations

• MF automatic MF automatic stationsstations

• Model fields Model fields interpolated at rain interpolated at rain gauge location gauge location

Thanks to M. Kunz Thanks to M. Kunz and P. Limnaios and P. Limnaios

Time evolution of the spatially averaged 24h precip.

Julian day (July/August)Julian day (July/August)

P30

h-P

06h

(mm

)P

30h-

P06

h (m

m)

Time evolution of the spatially averaged 24h precip.