cop25 poster f.meza v2 27112019 fm - unfccc. chile... · 2020. 3. 17. · ^ dkz/ > wd d/kew>...

Risk occurs when there is a combination of climatichazard, over an exposed natural or human system that isalso vulnerable (i.e. shows sensitivity). In order to assessthe climate change risk for the different natural andhuman systems, we followed a multi model approach (i.e.several GCM runs) . The risk is assessed comparing currentclimate (1980-2010) and future climate conditions (2035-2065 under RCP 8.5).

CLIMATE RISK ATLAS OF CHILE: ATOOL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OFSECTORIAL ADAPTATION PLANS

Francisco J. Meza, René Garreaud, Susana Bustos, Andrés Pica, Mark Falvey, Carolina Urmeneta, Anahí Urquiza,Patricio Winckler, Ximena Vargas, Alejandro Miranda, Patricio Pliscoff, Alvaro Lorca, Camila Cabrera, Diego Rivera,Doris Soto, Maricel Gibbs, Cristian Henriquez, Jorge Gironás.

Climate change risks maps for communicatinginformation about climate impacts were develop forcontinental Chile, as well as Juan Fernandez and Easterislands. These maps incorporate current and futureclimate projections, specifying hazards, exposure andsensibility for selected systems (i.e. Human Settlement/heat wave, Hydrology/drought) at municipal level.

For each unit, and for each valid climate-hazard/system,risk will be obtained as the product of climate threat,exposure and sensitivity. The municipal risk can besubsequently aggregated at provincial and regionallevels.

The maps will be displayed in a web-based platform thatallows dynamic visualization and data downloading, thusbecoming an important tool for the design of publicpolicies and the implementation of adaptationmeasures.

A GIS spatial database is under development, containingthe characterizations of the current and future climatescenarios and the projections for the different climaterelated threats for each systems of interest. Exmpls ofthese are: floods (heavy rains), droughts, heat waves,frosts and changes in the isotherm. All the results will beuploaded to a flexible public platform that will bedeveloped and then transfer to the Ministry ofEnvironment. It is expected to be a dynamic tool,identifying gaps and integrating new information inorder to constantly improve results and decisionmaking.

Figure 1. Changes in yield potential for Chardonnay in central Chile

INTRODUCTION METHODOLOGY

CONTRIBUTORS

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Figure 3. Example of web-based platform with dynamic visualization for main ricks in Chile

Implementation

Figure 2. Surface of Chardonnay by municipality in central Chile

cop25 poster f.meza v2 27112019 fm - unfccc. chile... · 2020. 3. 17. · ^ dkz/ > wd d/kew>...

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