contemporary issues

ELTR 1223Survey of Renewable

Energy Technology

Contemporary Issues

Unit Two

Source:

Use Policy This material was developed by

Timothy J. Wilhelm, P.E., Kankakee Community College, with funding from the National Science Foundation as part of ATE Grant No. 0802786.

All materials in this presentation are designed and intended for educational use, only. They may not be used for any publication or commercial purposes.

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Author, Editors/Reviewers Author: Timothy J. Wilhelm, P.E.,

Kankakee Community College Editors/Reviewers/Modifier Chris Miller, Heartland Community

College

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Objectives Students will be able to define the

modern meaning of the word “sustainability,” in simple, basic terms.

Students will be able to discuss the differences between the modern ideas of “renewable” energy and “non-renewable” energy.

Students will be able to describe what is meant by the “peak oil problem,” in simple, basic terms. Source:

Objectives Students will be able to describe, in

simple, basic terms, what is (are) currently believed to be the primary cause(s) of “global warming” and climate change.”

Students will be, in simple terms, conversant with the pro and con positions regarding the belief in and acceptance of the modern ideas of “global warming” and climate change.” Source:

Objectives Students will be able to describe and

discuss, in simple, basic terms, the differences between centralized and distributed energy-infrastructure systems, as well as the current concerns regarding all of the U.S. infrastructure system.

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FIRST…

Let’s talk about “Sustainability”…

Sustainability

“Meeting the needs of the present without compromising

the ability of future generations to meet their own

needs.”

World Commission on Economic Development. (1987). Our Common Future.

England: Oxford University Press.

Let’s Look at a Few Events from the Not-too-Distant Past

09/06/07 Israeli Air Strike on Syria

“Global Warming” Creates a New Kind of Crisis

Serious Drought in High-Population Areas

Bridge Collapse

The Historic BP Oil “Spill”

NDM-1

How much do you know about these sustainability issues?

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How many tons of water does it take to produce 1 ton of grain?

A. 1 tonB. 400 tons

C. 1000 tonsD. 1300 tons

Answer: C - 1000 tons

What is the population of the United States?

A. 25 millionB. 298 millionC. 104 millionD. 1.5 billion

Answer: B - 298 million

How many cars are there in the entire world fleet?

A. 800 millionB. 250 millionC. 88 millionD. 23 million

Answer: A – 800 million

The U.S. food economy uses as much energy as France does in its entire economy.

True or False?

TRUE!

Contemporary Issues The so-called “Peak Oil Problem” The so-called “Global Warming Crisis” Apparent and suspected “Climate Change” Increases in the cost of transportation fuel Increases in the cost of electricity Decay of the existing infrastructure The supposed ongoing threat of

“Terrorism” The current financial crisis…“Mortgage

Crisis”…the bail outs of “Freddie Mac” and Fannie Mae”…crisisin the auto inductry…growing unemployment…

What others can you think of?

Do the Science…Do the Math…Ask Questions!!!

Are the average temperatures of the Earth’s surface, and/or the atmosphere, and/or the oceans really increasing?

If “yes,” what are the realistic cause-and-effect implications of this temperature rise, and are they “good” or “bad?”

If “yes,” to what degree can this temperature rise be attributed to Human cause?

If “yes,” and if there is Human culpability, is there any realistic expectation that a change in Human habit and activity will diminish, halt, or reverse the temperature rise?

The Impending Energy and Infrastructure Crisis

Context and Comments Based largely on personal

experience, personal observations, and personal conclusions.

Much of the data is anecdotal, derived from conferences, personal conversations, telephone interviews, news reports, and internet searches.

It’s better to heed the signs of life, prepare for the worst and hope for the best, vs…

ignore the signs of life and pretend the worst can’t happen.

Prophets and Time Monks…

Tracking expression of human emotion to predict future events…

Natural Law…Cause-and-Effect…

There are “tells” available in all aspects of daily life…

Can you read the Signs of Life?

Does anybody see what I see?

Signs of Life #1: Two-Day WORKSHOPDesign of Small-Scale Electric

Power Systems July 23rd and 24th, 1998; Cleveland, Ohio T2G, Technical Training Group K. James Phillips, Jr., P.E.

Principle engineer for Phillips Engineers and Consultants, Inc. – offices in Ohio and California

An IEEE Distinguished Lecturer (Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers)

A member of the IEEE-USA Energy Policy Committee, “responsible for the development of position paper, and providing technical assistance and testimony for the United States Congress on energy related matters.”

“Why focus on small-scale power plant design? Does it have anything to do

with Y2K?” “HA!” Let me ask you a few

questions…

“When was the last time they built a new electric power plant in your area?”

“What do you see happening in every suburban area of the country?”

“Let me tell you about Y2K…”

K. James Phillips, Jr., P.E. (Prophesy Excellence)

August, 1998 – rolling blackouts in Chicago

Remainder of 1998 – major blackouts in San Francisco and Maui

Multiple outages in 1999 -- Chicago, New Orleans, New York City, New England, New Jersey, Long Island and South Central States

June, 2000 – largest planned blackout in California history

January, 2001 – rolling blackouts within California

March, 2001 – California’s first Statewide rolling blackouts.

August 14, 2003 Blackout in Northeast U.S and Canada

Signs of Life #2: FORMAL TESTIMONYThe American Society of Civil

Engineers (ASCE)

March 27, 2001; Washington, DC Statement of the ASCE before the U.S. Senate

Subcommittee on Fisheries, Wildlife and Water of the Committee on Environment and Public Works on Water and Wastewater Infrastructure Needs.

ASCE’s 12 infrastructure categories: Roads, Bridges, Transit, Aviation, Energy, Schools, Drinkable Water, Wastewater, Dams, Solid Waste, Hazardous Waste, and Navigable Waterways.

ASCE President Thomas Jackson, told reporters, "We're sliding toward failure and the prospects for improvement are grim."

In the September 24, 2003 Edition of

The Guardian

US$1.6 trillion needed to bring US infrastructure to an “adequate” level.

Traffic congestion, polluted air and beaches, overcrowded schools, potholes, blackouts, broken water mains and decaying bridges are daily miseries that most everyone has had to confront. These hazards and disruptions will continue and in some cases worsen, according to the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE). by Terrie Albano

Just a few summers ago in Kankakee, IL…

Water main break… Hundreds of homes without water for

multiple days; Water main just gave out because it was

“old;” The short section that was repaired is

now like new; but… The entire remaining length of the water

main is still “old.”

Signs of Life #3: Formal PRESS RELEASESIllinois Deregulates Electric

Utilities

A number of years ago, State Representative Phil Novak headed the effort in Illinois to deregulate the electric utilities.

Residential electricity is now fully deregulated… Legislated price cap ceased at the end of

2006… Double-digit price increases

implemented in 2007… Look at CA, NY, and NJ!!!

$.75/KWHr. by 2030?

Signs of Life #4: The New Scientific DebateThe Global Warming Debate

BUT…

Signs of Life #5: Three-Day CONFERENCESunWize Technologies, Inc. Dealer

Conference

November, 2002; Camarillo, California

Panel Discussions, Professional Presentations, and Vendor Presentations

Representatives from Shell Solar gave a presentation and a tour of their Camarillo facility Shell had just recently purchased

Siemens Solar, at that time the world’s largest manufacturer of Solar-Photovoltaic (PV) modules.

A few folks in the audience boo-ed…

“Yah-h-h, I know what some of you ex-hippies are thinkin’…”

“Shell is no longer just an oil company…”

“We know better than anybody how much oil is left in the ground…and I’m gonna tell ya…”

“Twenty-Seven Years…”

“Okay, maybe a little more than twenty-seven years, but…”

“Possibly little or no gasoline available… $6/gallon, or more, if any…”

Remaining petro-fuels “priority allocated…”

“Alternative Energy? There is no alternative!”

Signs of Life #6: A fifty year old predictionThe Peak-Oil Problem

Shell Oil Geologist/ Petroleum Scientist

1949 – projected short historical oil period

1956 - predicted 1970 as the U.S. Peak Oil year

1969 - predicted World Peak Oil year 2000

Marion King Hubbert

The Peak Oil Problem implies we have pulled out of the Earth approximately half of the available petroleum (crude oil and natural gas) available, and…

The other half will be much harder to extract and will not meet the growing world demand within the next few years. 

The Air Mattress Problem

“On a cumulative basis, we have pumped almost 1 trillion barrels of oil, and estimates for total recoverable oil are about 2 trillion barrels or a little more.”

Financial Planning Magazine (Oct. 2005)

Source: Michael Brownlee and William Wilson, Center for Sustainable Community

How Much Two Trillion Barrels?

Consider the Great Lakes…

Covering more than 94,000 square miles, combined they hold an estimated 6 quadrillion gallons of water.

6 Quadrillion = 6 + fifteen 0’s6,000,000,000,000,000

Divide that by 42 (gal/barrel)= 143,000,000,000,000

= 143 trillion barrels of waterSource: Michael Brownlee and William Wilson, Center for Sustainable

Community

2 Trillion barrels is the equivalent to 1.4% of the volume of the great lakes.

Less than the size of Green Bay!

How Much Two Trillion Barrels?

Source: Michael Brownlee and William Wilson, Center for Sustainable Community

During the last 100 years, the economies of the Western world have been predicated on the assumption of continual growth.

Cheap energy (oil) is the fuel that has driven this model.

The model of ‘continual growth’ cannot be maintained. Our world will change.

The Potential Impact on American Society

Source: Michael Brownlee and William Wilson, Center for Sustainable Community

No new, huge fields have been discovered since the 1960’s.

2003 was the first year in decades in which no new discovery of at least 500 million barrels was reported.

(World oil consumption in 2005… 84 million barrels per day)

The world’s annual production/consumption has exceeded annual discoveries for over 25 years.

Can’t we just keep drilling and discover more oil

deposits?

Source: Michael Brownlee and William Wilson, Center for Sustainable Community

In the 1970s the deepest offshore wells were drilled in 600 feet of water.

Today, a Chevron well in the Gulf of Mexico draws oil from 10,011 feet below the surface.

Source: Michael Brownlee and William Wilson, Center for Sustainable Community

What the Experts Say…

Both sides in the peak oil controversy agree that oil is a finite resource and that every year, the world consumes more oil than it discovers.

But those are about the only things they agree upon.

David J. Lynch, USA TODAY10/16/2005

Source: Michael Brownlee and William Wilson, Center for Sustainable Community

What the Experts Say…

But one conclusion is irrefutable: The age of cheap oil is definitely over, and even as our appetite for it seems insatiable (with world demand likely to grow 50 percent by 2025), petroleum itself will end up downsizing.

Today, not only is oil getting harder to find in economically exploitable form, but the use of what remains is contra-indicated by the hard reality of global warming.

Even if we had ample oil, in the long run we’d need to find a new, more sustainable way of living anyway.

David J. Lynch, USA TODAY

Source: Michael Brownlee and William Wilson, Center for Sustainable Community

What the Experts Say…

In recent months the peak oil camp has received support from some fairly sober quarters including the U.S. government.

A 91-page study prepared in February

2005 for the Energy Department concluded: "The world is fast approaching the inevitable peaking of conventional world oil production ... a problem unlike any yet faced by modern industrial society."

Source: Michael Brownlee and William Wilson, Center for Sustainable Community

What the Experts Say…

“If world crude-oil production hits peak and then falls within the next five to 10 years, would America be

ready? The answer is, almost certainly not.”

—Christian Science Monitor11/9/05

Source: Michael Brownlee and William Wilson, Center for Sustainable Community

Source: Michael Brownlee and William Wilson, Center for Sustainable Community

Is this the energy curve of modern history?

Ultimately, the energy-intensive industrial age may be little more

than a blip in the course of human history.

Where is the oil?

Where is it from?

Signs of Life #7: TERRORIST ATTACKThe first attack on U.S. soil since

Pearl Harbor

September 11, 2001; New York City, Washington DC, Pennsylvania.

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security tells us the threat of another attack against U.S. citizens, on U.S. soil, still exists.

What does all this mean?

What are the cause-and-effect implications?

What can be done?

How can it be done?

At the SunWize Conference, Shell shared some tough

news, but…they also have strategies…

Hydrogen… Hydrogen combustion… Fuel cells… The country of Iceland as a model,

hydrogen-based energy economy…

According to the Worldwatch Institute…

“Iceland -- partnering with DaimlerChrysler, Shell, and Norsk Hydro – are working to make the island nation the world's first hydrogen economy, replacing petroleum in its buses, cars, and fishing boats over the next 30 years.”

South Wilmington Sportsmans’ Club beach. Bathhouse with 700 gpd, building-integrated solar hot water system is

on the left end on the photo.

Closer look at the SWSC bathhouse with solar hot water system.

Note that solar absorber plates are recessed

below roof surface and glazing is flush with

roof surface – building integrated solar

thermal.

Pergola built attached to residence with E-W facing roof.

PV array mounted on top of pergola. Design and installation by Wilhelm

Engineering.

5KW PV installation near Gurnee Mills, IL just south of Wisconsin border.

Ask yourself a few questions… What impact would $6/gal gasoline have

on your personal budget? What impact would $.25/KWHr electricity

have on your household expenses? What impact might utility service

interruptions have on your ability to function at your job?

What impact would higher energy costs have on your future salary negotiations?

What other implications can you think of?

Our governmental representatives (and we ourselves) must become

proactive… sensible planning is needed NOW Planning to accommodate to coming

challenges. Planning to keep both the public and

private sectors of the establishment vital and effective in serving the public need.

Planning to make the changes necessary to sustain peace, security, and long-term prosperity and freedom.

What’s needed? We need a larger body of thinking

people with appropriate technical skills.

We need our general population to have a higher understanding of applied math, science, and technology principles – to be more technologically self-sufficient.

We need to prepare the next generation to successfully transition into new ways of living.