conservation and climate change

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Conservation and Climate Change

Patrick GradyGIS/Data Manager

PICCC/PICSCpatrick.grady@piccc.net

(808) 687-6175

www.piccc.netwww.tinyurl.com/PacificCSC

PICSC/PICCC PROJECT: A Landscape-based assessment of climate change vulnerability for all native Hawaiian plants

AGENCIES: Pacific Islands Climate Change Cooperative (PICCC); University of Hawaiʻi at Hilo (UHH); U.S. Geological Survey (USGS); U.S Fish & Wildlife Service (USFWS); Hawaiʻi Cooperative Studies Unit (HCSU); The Nature Conservancy (TNC); United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)

PRINCIPALINVESTIGATOR: Lucas Fortini (PICCC,USGS) WORKING GROUP: Jonathan Price (UHH); Jim Jacobi (USGS); Adam Vorsino (USFWS); Jeff Burgett

(PICCC,USFWS); Kevin Brinck (HCSU); Fred Amidon (USFWS); Steve Miller (USFWS); Sam `Ohukani`ohi`a Gon III (TNC); Gregory Koob (USDA); Eben Paxton (USGS)

Hawaii a center of plant endangerment and

extinction• 110 historical plant extinctions • ~300 of 1100 native plants threatened/

endangered– 37% of all endangered plant species in US

• 201 species having fewer than 50 known individuals

Source: http://hawaii.gov/dlnr/dofaw/rpc/pep-program

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Hawaiian native plant vulnerability assessment

(VA)• Goal: Evaluate the vulnerability of Main

Hawaiian Island terrestrial plant species to climate change– All Main Hawaiian Island terrestrial native

plants (~1100) are initially considered

• Iterative process– First iteration a landscape based analysis– Resulting framework potentially applied

to other species groups, other resource types

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Tetraplasandra hawaiensis ('Ohe)

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Current climate envelope‘OHE

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Future* (2100) climate envelope

*Using temperature (MAT) and precipitation projections (MAP) based on A1B emission scenario

‘OHE

Response zones‘OHE

Range shifts (2000 to 2100) and vulnerability

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‘OHE

55 species have no climate compatible area left by 2100

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Chamaesyce rockii

(Akoko)

Chamaesyce rockii (Akoko)

Landscape-based results for habitat prioritization

‘Warmer’ colored areas are where more native plant species are likely to suffer range loss

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More species

Less species

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Hawai’i Akepa

SPECIES DISTRIBUTION SHIFTSBY 2100

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SPECIES DISTRIBUTION SHIFTSBY 2100

Maui Parrotbill

PICSC/PICCC PROJECT: Modeling climate-driven changes to dominant vegetation in the Hawaiian Islands

AGENCIES: Pacific Islands Climate Science Center (PICSC); Pacific Islands Climate Change Cooperative (PICCC); University of Hawaiʻi at Hilo (UHH); U.S. Geological Survey (USGS); University of Hawaiiʻi at Mānoa (UHM); International Pacific Research Center (IPRC); NOAA

PRINCIPALINVESTIGATORS: Jonathan Price (UHH); Jim Jacobi (USGS) RESEARCHER: Tamara M. Wong (UHH) WORKING GROUP: Tom Giambelluca (UHM); Lucas Fortini (PICCC, USGS), Oliver Elison Timm

(University of Albany); Henry Diaz (NOAA); Michael Samuel (USGS); Carter Atkinson (USGS); Dennis Lapointe (USGS)

Modeling climate-driven changes to dominant vegetation in the Hawaiian Islands

• The goal of this study is to utilize a vast array of quantitative vegetation plot data to model dominant vegetation composition.

• Hawaiian vegetation is unusual in that most ecologically important species occur consistently across a wide range of physical environments, but vary greatly in local abundance, largely driven by climate.

• Changes in climate could also alter species' abundance, capacity to persist within predicted ranges, and compete for local regeneration sites.

• Uses predictive species distribution modeling (SDM) as it is an important tool in addressing conservation biology and global change issues.

• Whereas explicit spatial habitat models typically predict probability of occurrence, this project aims to generate species-specific models of estimated percent cover based in relation to several independent variables (precipitation, temperature, substrate age, etc.).

• Has compiled 145,000 vegetation data records for over 4,000 locations into a relational database in MS Access.

• These sites represent a considerable proportion of the overall climate variability in Hawaiʻi.

• Novel correlative species abundance models were generated using powerful nonlinear statistical methods, quantitative vegetation plot data, functionally relevant environmental variables, and downscaled climate models

• Aimed to identify trends and predicted future shifts in key native plant species in the Hawaiian Islands.

• As projecting species-specific abundance changes can complement and improve predictive mapping of habitat quality, inform the prioritization of habitat conservation and restoration efforts for resource managers, and support ecological resilience in the future.

Modeling climate-driven changes to dominant vegetation in the Hawaiian Islands

Climate variable model example: Mean temperature of warmest quarter baseline

Source: Hamilton et al. 2013 (IPRC HRCM models), Zhang et al. 2012, PRISM

Hawai'i Island example of current vegetation plots

Preliminary Metrosideros polymorpha (ohia lehua) baseline abundance projection

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Conservation and Climate Change

Patrick GradyGIS/Data Manager

PICCC/PICSCpatrick.grady@piccc.net

(808) 687-6175

www.piccc.netwww.tinyurl.com/PacificCSC