Conservation Implications of Global Climate Change

&Economics and Conservation

Mon. April. 18

The Effects of an Increase in Average

Temperature and Increase

in Temperature

VarianceNote effects of an increase in variance on both hot and cold sides – even with less certainty about a given temperature increase.

Biological Evidence – Change in Kelp Forest Composition in

Monterey Bay

http://www.scubascotty.com/images/Underwater/PB100183_Kelp_Forest_sm.jpg

Phenology of Biological Events

Meta-analysis of Data Relating to the Effects of Climate

Change on Biological Systems

What is a meta-analysis? Why are they important in the case of climate change (and other cases)?(i.e., what is a common critique of gloom and doom data?)

Checkerspot Butterfly Range Changes and Local Extinctions

http://floralore.com/fauna/butterflies/euphydryasEditha.jpg

Grey triangles are extinct populations, black triangles are new populations. Notice where the extinctions primarily occur. Could there be other causes?

Over-wintering Range

Extension in a Skipper

http://www.cirrusimage.com/Skippers/sachem_skipper_female_3.jpg

Why is the "over-wintering" part significant? What happened previously?

Range Shifts (x, y and z)

http://www.plantweb.co.za/Plant_Pictures/Vexatorella/Vexatorella_amoena/thumbnails/Vexatorella_amoena.jpg.jpg

Mitigation and Adaptation

Mitigation -- limiting severity by stabilizing or reducing greenhouse gas emission.

Adaptation -- actions to reduce the harm that occurs secondary to climate change (independent of mitigation)

Mitigation

Adaptation & Management

Resistance (?)

Resilience

• Corridors

• Protected areas under different climate change scenarios (next slide)

• Species translocations

• Identification and protection of refugia

Transformation

Considerations for Reserves

Near loss of species and its range in two reserves as climate shifts

Change in locations of range

Range decrease in one reserve and extension into a new area.

What About Corridors, Relocation, & Introductions?

Projected Richness

Decrease in the

AmericasWhat are the likely causes of these changes?

Economics and Conservation

Ecological Economics

Why do we study this topic in a biology course – and especially spend at least 5% of this course on this topic?

Utility

Utility – a measure of what an individual perceives as well-being.

What are wealth and money and what is their relationships to utility?

Do wealth and money accurately reflect utility?

What is the nature of trade and "satisfaction?"

What is the notion of "substitute good" in regard to utility?

Will this (substitute good) be the same for everyone?

http://www.library.hbs.edu/hc/collections/kress/kress_img/adam_smith2.jpg