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European Executive Council
A CORPORATE VIEW
RevitalisingtheEuropean Dream
Brussels, 29 June 2011
Overview of the study
Re-energising the European economy
Reshaping the European social model
Redefining the European role in
international affairs
Re-vitalising the European Dream:
A corporate view
1
The State of Europe project was conducted in three steps, focusing on two outputs: a white paper and inputs for three roundtables
Survey of European business leaders
Interviews with policymakers and thought leaders
Analysis and synthesis of results
White paper:Revitalizing the
European dream: A corporate view
Roundtable discussions at
The State of the European Union
European Commissions and
Delegations
OECD
Academia
Business leaders
…
Survey sent to 38,000 European
business leaders from EU27,
Norway and Switzerland. Yield:
~2,000 respondents
Social roundtable: Reshaping the
European social model
International roundtable: Redefining the
European role in international affairs
Economic roundtable: Reenergising the
European economy
Approach
2
The online survey was sent to a wide community of business leaders across Europe
3%
Sweden
Romania
1%Portugal
Poland
1%Norway
2%Netherlands
Italy 8%
Ireland2%
Hungary1%
Greece
United Kingdom France
17%
Finland2%
Spain
Estonia
Denmark3%
Germany12%
Czech Rep.
Cyprus
Switzerland
3%
Bulgaria
1%
Belgium
5%
Austria
2%
Mix by countryMix by industry
20%
Education
Other
Business
Services
2%
3%
1%
Finance &
Insurance
18%
Information,
Comm. &
Technology
19%
Consumer
Goods
Energy, mining
& utilities
Transport
Automotive
4%
Agriculture, Fishing, Forestry
1%
Response Rate 5%, ~ 2,000
Female
10%
Male 90%
Mix by gender
Over 60
14%
50-59 25%
40-49
36%
30-39
23%
20-29
3%
Mix by age
Slovakia
Slovenia
Malta
Latvia
Luxembourg
Lithuania
Law/Justice & Public Admin.
Health & Other social serv.
Retail
Response Period: Feb., 28th – Apr., 1st 2011
Source: Booz & Company analysis
Survey questions revolved around four key themes
3
Emotional perceptions of
Europe
Reshaping the European social
model
Redefining the European role in
international affairs
Reenergising the European economy
Emotions with regard
to Europe
Perceptions of current
situation in Europe
(e.g., financial crisis,
unemployment)
European Union’s
position as a global
power, today and in
2030
Social policy
Labour policy with
regards to the
anticipated decline in
the EU workforce
Education system and
its evolution towards
2030
European economic
growth perspectives
and drivers
Economic policy
Climate and
sustainable energy
policy
Presence and
influence of the EU,
today and in 2030
– Regions of
focus
– International
aid policy
Potential new
member states by
2030
Trade policy
A solid majority of respondents have positive feelings about Europe
Note: Numbers may not add to 100% due to rounding.
Source: Booz & Company and INSEAD 2011 State of Europe Survey (1,914 respondents); Booz & Company analysis
All respondents
What are your emotions about Europe?
4
2%
100%
CH
31%
24%
31%
12%
UK
7%
18%
17%
41%
17%
NO
10%
27%
33%
30%
IT
13%
19%
50%
16%
NL
1%10%
21%
57%
10%
IE
12%
14%
53%
21%
DK
2%
12%
12%
49%
25%
RO
4%
21%
58%
17%
PT
4%
11%
10%
49%
26%
DE
3%5%
17%
47%
28%
ES
3%8%
14%
43%
33%
FR
3%
10%
11%
49%
27%
HU
8%
15%
54%
23%
PL
5%
18%
55%
23%
FI
3%
19%
69%
9%
SE
4%
18%
45%
33%
GR
10%
9%
43%
38%
BE
5%
13%
60%
23%
AT
2%5%
10%
45%
38%
BG
7%
7%
53%
33%
Avg
3%
10%
16%
48%
24%
Very negativeNegativeNeutralPositiveVery positive
72%
Concern dominates feelings about Europe’s current situation
Note: Numbers may not add to 100% due to rounding.
Source: Booz & Company and INSEAD 2011 State of Europe Survey (1,939 respondents); Booz & Company analysis
All respondents
How do you feel about the current situation in Europe?
5
DK
7%
64%
8%
20%
CH
6%
63%
10%
18%
2%
UK
11%
56%
11%
20%
2%
PT
13%
65%
22%
FR
16%
58%
4%
22%
1%
NL
5%
70%
2%
24%
GR
19%
52%
4%
23%
1%
ES
11%
58%
6%
23%
2%
IT
8%
62%
5%
24%
1%
RO
65%
9%
26%
SE
8%
53%
12%
27%
IE
9%
56%
7%
26%
2% 100%
FI
3%
59%
6%
31%
PL
14%
45%
9%
27%
5%
BE
6%
56%
5%
31%
2%
AT
5%
38%
19%
38%
BG
13%
47%
33%
7%
NO
13%
43%
3%
37%
3%
DE
9%
37%
12%
43%
HU
8%
46%
46%
Avg
10%
55%
7%
27%
1%
AlarmedConcernedIndifferentConfidentEnthusiastic
Most respondents think that the European Union’s position today one of a second-tier power or even more limited
Note: Numbers may not add to 100% due to rounding.
Source: Booz & Company and INSEAD 2011 State of Europe Survey (1,927 respondents); Booz & Company analysis
How do you see the European Union’s position today?
6
6%
100%
IT
40%
19%
19%
16%
BE
1%
34%
28%
19%
17%
DK
37%
24%
25%
14%
UK
1%
40%
17%
26%
15%
RO
4%
29%
25%
29%
13%
AT
2%
27%
27%
29%
15%
NL
6%
25%
24%
30%
15%
PL
36%
18%
14%
32%
HU
31%
23%
31%
15%
IE
35%
19%
19%
28%
FR
1%
37%
15%
26%
21%
NO
14%
38%
28%
21%
CH
26%
26%
32%
17%
DE
1%
28%
21%
23%
26%
FI
28%
22%
34%
16%
PT
3%
32%
15%
24%
26%
ES
4%
31%
14%
22%
29%
SE
14%
33%
35%
18%
GR
24%
16%
38%
22%
BG
20%
13%
27%
40%
Avg
2%
32%
20%
26%
20%
A group of countries with no influence
A group of countries with limited influence
A second-tier power
A major power
One of the main global powers
All respondents
Despite this, respondents are cautiously optimistic about the future
Note: Numbers may not add to 100% due to rounding.
Source: Booz & Company and INSEAD 2011 State of Europe Survey (1,919 respondents); Booz & Company analysis
7
100%
CH
24%
29%
27%
20%
DK
2%
16%
33%
29%
21%
UK
4%
24%
22%
27%
23%
HU
46%
38%
15%
AT
17%
29%
26%
29%
NO
13%
32%
29%
26%
NL
14%
29%
27%
30%
FR
4%
14%
21%
35%
26%
IT
12%
26%
26%
35%
ES
3%
14%
22%
32%
30%
BE
7%
28%
37%
26%
DE
2%
14%
20%
29%
36%30%
BG
14%
14%
7%
29%
36%
IE
14%
19%
24%
43%
FI
3%
10%
19%
48%
19%
PT
3%
13%
15%
31%
39%
PL
10%
15%
55%
20%
SE
6%
16%
42%
33%
RO
9%
13%
39%
39%
GR
10%
7%
31%
51%
Avg
2%
14%
22%
31%
A group of countries with no influence
A group of countries with limited influence
A second-tier power
A major power
One of the main global powers
How do you see the European Union’s position in 2030?
All respondents
61%
8
While business leaders favour EU leadership on monetary and budgetary issues, they are more reluctant to delegate social matters
In which fields should the EU prevail over national states?
Source: Booz & Company and INSEAD 2011 State of Europe Survey (2,030 respondents on monetary; 2,020 on budgetary; 2,017 on industry; 2,007 on educational; 2,005 on public health and 2,003 on social); Booz & Company analysis
13%
26%
35%
Industrial policy
16%
35%
15%
Budgetary policy
10%
44%
20%
Monetary policy
9%
40%
38%
41% 42% 42%
Social welfare
policy
17%
32%
9%
Educational
policy
17%
27%
14%
Public health
policy
16%
33%
11%
78%64%
48% 44% 41% 41%
Economic and business issues Social issues
Agree Disagree Strongly disagreeStrongly agree
Respondents from early EU member states and the Eurozone tend to be more inclined to delegate policy to the EU
GR
73%79% 74%
Ø 56%
UK
38%
CH
39%
NO
41%
PL
43%
DK
44%
SE
46%
DE
46%
IE
50%
FI
50%
NL
51%
AT
57%
ROBG HU
63%
PT
64%
FR
61%
IT
71%
ES
72%
BE
64%
In which fields should the EU prevail over national states?% of strongly agree and agree
Overall
75%
DE
76% 71%
DK
Ø 79%
UK
47%
IE
62%
CH
63%
HU
69%
SE
71%
ROPL
83%
AT
77%
NONL
84%
FI
84%
PT
85% 73%93%
BG
93%
IT
94%
FR
94%
ES
96%
BE
97%
GR
Monetary
CH
55%
DK
56%
IE
57%
DE
58%
NL
60%
PL
64%
RO
67%
AT NOFI
69%
HU
69%
PT
69%
FR
72%
IT
81%
GRBE
84%85%
BG
87%
ES
Ø 66%68%
UK
36%50%
SE
52%85%
29%
NL
30%
PL
32%
SE
34%
NO
34%
UK
40%
FR
44%
AT
45%
FI
46%
BE
47%
RO
58%
IT
59%
ES
59%
HUPT
63% 62%
BG
79%
GR
Ø 45%
DKIE
20%25%
DE
28%
CH
73%
32%
DE
34%
UK
35%
FI
41%
SE
42%
RO
46%
IE
48%
AT
48%27%
49%
NL
52%
DK
58%
FR
59%
ES
62%
IT
63%
HUGR
70%
BGBE
81% 71%
PT
Ø 51%
NOCH
29%
PL
69%
Social
Public
health
Industry
ES
63%
Ø 40%
UK
12%
PL
14%
NO
18%
CH
18%
NL
27%
UK
30%
SE
30%
FI
31%
DE
34%
IE
37%
AT
41%
HU
46%
GR
48%
FR
53%
PT
54%
BE
55%
IT
58%59%
ROBG
64%
Education
9Countries which entered after 1973 or are not €-zone membersCountries which joined prior to 1973 or €-zone members
Overview of the study
Re-energising the European
economy
Reshaping the European social model
Redefining the European role in
international affairs
Re-vitalising the European Dream:
A corporate view
Business leaders responded to questions around growth prospects and drivers as well as economic and sustainable energy policy
10
European economic growth and drivers
What are business leaders’ expectations for growth? How
realistic are those expectations? How do they vary?
What key growth drivers would be most effective to achieve high
Europe-wide growth?
Economic policy
Sustainable energy policy
How can we avoid new Eurozone crises?
In which areas should EU policy prevail over nation states?
By 2050, the EU objective is that 40-80% of energy will be
renewable energy– what will be the outcome of this policy?
How could the EU leverage sustainable energy to foster foreign
investments inside the EU?
Re-energising the European
economy
European economic growth and
drivers
Economic policy
Climate and sustainable energy policy
Re-vitalising the European Dream:
A corporate view
11
Respondents believe that slow growth (less than 2%) is structural –results biased by local conditions
All respondents
74%
26%
Slow growth is
structural in Europe
The current
economic slowdown
is temporary
% of respondents who
believe slow growth
is structural
100%
80%
60%
20%
0%
Forecasted ’09-’12 GDP growth
4.5%4.0%
40%
3.0%2.5%2.0%1.5%1.0% 3.5%0.5%0.0%-2.5%
HURO
NL
PT SEIE
PLDKES
DEUKGR
BE BGATFRIT
National GDP growth forecasts and expectations of slow growth 1)
1) Responses by country with sample size > 10.
Source: Global Insight data and forecasts, Booz & Company and INSEAD 2011 State of Europe Survey (2,034 respondents); Booz & Company analysis
What are, in your opinion, the growth perspectives for the EU towards 2030?
Avg. 74%
Forecasted growth is
higher than 2% but
~75% of respondents
have more pessimistic
expectations
Forecasted growth is
~2% but half of
respondents have more
optimistic expectations
Forecasted growth and respondents’
expectations are aligned
Reenergising the European economy – Growth
12
Across countries and industries, decision makers strongly agree that innovation and SME activity are key to fostering high growth
Note: Numbers may not add to 100% due to rounding. According to the European Commission’s annual SME Performance Review (2009), SMEs are defined as ‘enterprises in the non-financial business economy that employ less than 250 persons.’
Source: Booz & Company and INSEAD 2011 State of Europe Survey (2,035 respondents on innovation; 2,018 respondents on boosting SME participation; 2,000 respondents on budgetary discipline; 1,966 respondents on share of exports in GDP; and 2,015 on Turkey); Booz & Company analysis
13%21%
42%
100%
Enlarge the Union to
high growth countries
(e.g., Turkey)
24%
26%
8%
Foster share of
exports in GDP
4%
56%
19%
Focus on budgetary
discipline of states
(e.g., debt)
2%
50%
35%
Boost SME participation
in economy
1% 5%
43%
52%
Aggressively invest
in innovation
1% 4%
31%
64%
All respondents
Strongly disagreeDisagreeAgreeStrongly agree
What would be the best strategies to reach high growth in Europe?
Reenergising the European economy – Growth
95% 95%85%
75%
34%
13
Regardless of home country R&D intensity, there is broad consensus that Europe must aggressively invest in innovation
What would be the best strategies to reach high growth in Europe?- Aggressively invest in innovation
3.4%3.2%3.0%2.8%2.6%2.4%2.2%2.0%1.8%1.6%1.4%1.2%1.0%0.8%0.6%0.4%0.2%
94%
HU
RO
PT
IE
FI
GR
DK
AT
PL
SE
BE
NL
ES
IT
FR
UK
% of respondents
who agree
investment in innovation
drives growth
100%
99%
98%
97%
96%
95%
93%
0.0%
92%
91%
81%
80%
R&D as % of GDP (2008)
3.8%3.6%
DE
Level of R&D and enthusiasm about innovation1)
1) Responses by country with sample size > 10.
Note: According to the European Commission’s annual SME Performance Review (2009), SMEs are defined as ‘enterprises in the non-financial business economy that employ less than 250 persons.’
Source: Eurostat data, Booz & Company and INSEAD 2011 State of Europe Survey (2,035 respondents); Booz & Company analysis
Avg. 95%
Reenergising the European economy – Growth
21%
8%4%
100%
Select priority industries
for the R&D agenda
55%
48%
Create crossborder
centres of excellence
40%
1%
Foster collaboration between
universities and companies
5%
31%
43%
2%
42%
Increase the share
of applied research
0% 3%
43%
54%
14
Most respondents share common views on how to leverage innovation to drive EU growth
Note: Numbers may not add to 100% due to rounding.
Source: Booz & Company and INSEAD 2011 State of Europe Survey (1,953 respondents on universities; 1,950 on applied research; 1,946 on centres of excellence and 1,945 on priority industries); Booz & Company analysis
Strongly disagreeDisagreeStrongly agree Agree
All respondents
How can innovation drive the EU growth over the next 20 years?
97% 95% 90%74%
Reenergising the European economy – Growth
15
Decision makers believe SMEs are a lever of future growth -regardless of the current level of SME participation
What would be the best strategies to reach high growth in Europe?- Boost small and medium enterprise participation in economy
Note: According to the European Commission’s annual SME Performance Review (2009), SMEs are defined as ‘enterprises in the non-financial business economy that employ less than 250 persons.’
Value added is defined as ‘the gross income from operating activities after adjusting for operating subsidies and including indirect taxes. Value adjustments (such as depreciation) are not subtracted. This is equivalent to gross domestic product in macro-economic analysis.'
Source: European Commission data on SME Performance Review, Booz & Company and INSEAD 2011 State of Europe Survey ( 2,018 respondents); Booz & Company analysis
Share of SME valued added and positive opinion about SME activity
By country
98%
98%
97%
97%
97%
97%
96%
96%
95%
94%
94%
92%
91%
91%
90%
89%
88%DK
AT 31%60%
PL 39%52%
DE 39%53%
HU 40%52%
SE 38%56%
PT 27%67%
20%68%
IT 18%72%
IE 44%52%
UK 45%51%
RO 54%42%
FI 43%54%
NL 35%62%
ES 29%68%
GR 24%73%
FR 42%55%
BE 40%58%
% of respondents who ’agree’ or ’strongly agree’Share of SME value added (2008)
Positive opinion about SME activity
By industry
91%
91%
92%
93%
94%
94%
94%
95%
95%
95%
96%
97%
100%
Finance
Other
Info. Com & Tech
Consumer Goods
Education
% of respondents who ’agree’ or ’strongly agree’
Transportation
Automotive
Retail
Law & Justice
Health
Energy
Business Services
Agriculture
Reenergising the European economy – Growth
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 140% 150%
% of respondents
who agree budgetary
discipline drives growth
95%
90%
85%
80%
75%
65%
Debt as % of GDP (2010)
HU
RO
PTIE
FI
GR
DKAT
PL
SE
BE
NL
ESIT
FR
UK
DE
16
At the same time, Europe should emphasize budgetary discipline –though results suggest some national bias
What would be the best strategies to reach high growth in Europe?- Focus on budgetary discipline of states (e.g., low level of debt)
Level of debt and positive opinion about budgetary discipline 1)
Low and medium levels of debt
with the highest level of
agreement with
statement
Avg. 85%
1) Responses by country with sample size > 10.
Source: Eurostat and Global Insight data, Booz & Company and INSEAD 2011 State of Europe Survey (2,000 respondents); Booz & Company analysis
High level of debt with high
level of agreement with
statement
Reenergising the European economy – Growth
17
Nearly 80% of respondents agree that exports fuel economic growth - except for French respondents who are neutral
What would be the best strategies to reach high growth in Europe? - Foster share of exports in GDP
55%50%45%40%35%30%25%0%
SE
ES
RO
PT
45%
NLITIE
HU
GR
DE
FR
FI DK
BG
BEAT
% of respondents
who believe in
fostering the exports
95%
90%
85%
80%
75%
70%
65%
40%
35%
30%
PL
Average share of export in GDP
(’00-’10)
90%85%80%75%70%65%60%
Share of exports in GDP and enthusiasm towards exports 1)
High export countries
whose respondents are
optimistic about exports
1) Responses by country with sample size > 10.
Source: Eurostat data, Booz & Company and INSEAD 2011 State of Europe Survey (1,966 respondents); Booz & Company analysis
50%
Avg. 78%
Reenergising the European economy – Growth
Low to medium export countries whose
respondents are strongly enthusiastic
about exports
18
A majority feel that expanding the EU to include neighbouring high growth countries would not stimulate growth
All respondents
8%
26%
42%
24%
-16pp
Strongly agreeAgreeDisagreeStrongly
disagree
What would be the best strategies to reach high growth in Europe? - Enlarge the Union to high growth countries (e.g., Turkey)
41% 43% 42%32%
100%
Academia
19%
29%
21%
Private sector
7%
26%
24%
NGO
10%
24%
24%
Government/
International
organisation
10%20%
29%
Respondents by sector
Strongly agreeAgreeDisagreeStrongly disagree
77%42%
50% 46% 53% 51% 49% 40% 45% 34%50%
30%38% 42% 39% 31% 36%
44% 39% 32%
IT
10%
33%
PL
21%
PT
13%
30%
9%
26%
UK
14%
41%28%
19%
ES
10%
30%
19% 18%
NL
11%
29%
SE
23%
RO
9%
26%
10%
35%
FI
6%
39%28%
16%
DK
3%
31%
32%13%
CH
8%
22%
IE
24%
NO
3%
27%14%
30%
AT
5%
33%
24%
22%
BE
9% 100%
3%
26%
20%
BG
7%
20%
20%
GR
26%
28%
DE
6%
20%
25%
FR
4%
19%
34%
HU
15%
8%
Respondents by nationality 1)
1) Responses by country with sample size > 10.
Note: Numbers may not add to 100% due to rounding.
Source: Booz & Company and INSEAD 2011 State of Europe Survey (2,015 respondents); Booz & Company analysis
Reenergising the European economy – Growth
66%
Re-energising the European
economy
European economic growth and drivers
Economic policy
Climate and sustainable energy policy
Re-vitalising the European Dream:
A corporate view
19
Respondents call for the reinforcement of the stability pact with the use of penalties for failure to comply
How could we avoid other Eurozone crises?- Strictly enforce the stability pact, use penalties, revoke voting rights and exclude risky states
1) Responses by country with sample size > 10.
Source: Eurostat data, Booz & Company and INSEAD 2011 State of Europe Survey (2,028 respondents); Booz & Company analysis
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
10%5%0%
HURO
PT
% of respondents who agree that budgetary discipline is necessary
90%80%70%60%50%45%35%30%25%20%15%
FR UK
DE
IE
IT
NL
ES
FIBE
PL
SE
GR
AT
DK
40%
Agreement on need to reinforce stability pact vs. Need for budgetary discipline1)
Avg. 85%
Avg. 80%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11%
HU
RO
Deficit as % of GDP (2011)
% of respondents
who agree that
the stability pact
should be reinforced
PT IE
FI
GR
DKATPL
SE
BE
NL ES
IT FR
UK
DE
Agreement on need to reinforce stability pack1) vs. National deficit
Low to medium deficit and
strong support for reinforcing
the stability pact
High deficit and less support for
reinforcing the stability pact
Avg:80%
% of respondents
who agree that
the stability pact
should be reinforced
Reenergising the European economy – Economic policy
20
There are differences in opinion concerning the financial safety net: Only respondents from high debt countries wish to reinforce it
How could we avoid other Eurozone crises?- Extend the current financial safety net supporting Eurozone stability
1) Responses by country with sample size > 10.
Note: Numbers may not add to 100% due to rounding.
Source: Eurostat data, Booz & Company and INSEAD 2011 State of Europe Survey (2,009 respondents); Booz & Company analysis
32%31%35%41%
10%
18%20%
48%14% 100%
Over 60
9%
47%12%
50-59
12%
44%13%
40-49
14%
40%11%
30-39
15%
34%
20-29
All respondents
Strongly disagreeDisagreeAgreeStrongly agree
62% 44% 51% 57% 59%
Debt burden and support for reinforcing financial safety net 1)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 140% 150%
HU
RO
PT
IE
FI
GR
DK
UK
DE
80%
90%
% of respondents
who agree on reinforcing
the financial safety net
70%
60%
50%
40%
0%
Debt as % of GDP (2010)
ITES
NL
BE
SEPL
AT
FR
Countries with high debt and high support for
reinforcing the financial safety net
Countries with low or
medium debt and against
reinforcement of the
financial safety net
Reenergising the European economy – Economic policy
21
With the exception of U.K. respondents, the majority of Europeans feel that the EU should prevail on budgetary policy
ROPT
IE
FI
GR
DK
ATPL
SE
BE
NL
ESIT
FR
UK
DE
Debt in % of GDP (2010)
% of respondents
wishing the EU
to prevail on budgetary policy
HU
Debt burden and Prevalence of the EU on budget policy 1)
1) Responses by country with sample size > 10.
Source: Eurostat data, Booz & Company and INSEAD 2011 State of Europe Survey (2,020 respondents); Booz & Company analysis
Respondents from high debt
countries who strongly
agree that the EU should
prevail on budgetary policy
Respondents from
low debt countries are
more evenly divided
on EU budgetary
prevalence
Anglo-
Saxon
model
In which fields should the EU prevail over national states?- Budgetary
50%
Avg. 66%
Reenergising the European economy – Economic policy
22
Eurozone respondents tend to favour European monetary policy more strongly
% of respondents who believe the EU should prevail over national states for monetary policy% of ‘strongly agree’ and ‘agree’
UK
77%
HU
69%
47%
RO
71%
SE IE
71%
CH
63%
PL
73%
62%
DK
75%
DE
76%
NOAT
83%
NL
84%
FI
84%
PT
85%
FR
93%
BG
93%
IT
94%
GR
94%
ES
96%
BE
97%
Non-EurozoneEurozone
Avg. 79%
1) The Guardian ('Poll shows little support for joining euro despite pound's fall', 2 Jan. 2009)
Source: Booz & Company and INSEAD 2011 State of Europe Survey (2,034 respondents); Booz & Company analysis
Reenergising the European economy – Economic policy
23
Eurozone candidate countries wish to strengthen entry criteria and do not seek to include all European countries in the Eurozone
How could we avoid other Eurozone crises?- Strengthen the entry criteria to the Eurozone
33% 36% 46%
73%
27%
100%
HU
38%
15%
PL
5%
45%
14%
RO
4%
38%
25%
BGAverage
2%
14%
45%
39%
Note: Numbers may not add to 100% due to rounding. Only EU member states which are not members of the Eurozone, do not have an ‘opt out’ (U.K., Sweden, Denmark) and have more than 10
respondents are shown.
Source: Booz & Company and INSEAD 2011 State of Europe Survey (2,025 respondents); Booz & Company analysis
53%
58% 41%31%
100%
HU
31%
38%
PL
23%
36%
RO
13%
25%
4%
BG
27%
13%
7%
How could we avoid other Eurozone crises?- Include all European countries in the Eurozone to limit
competition with other European currencies
Strongly disagreeDisagreeAgreeStrongly agree
Reenergising the European economy – Economic policy
Average
6%
21%
49%
24%
Re-energising the European
economy
European economic growth and drivers
Economic policy
Climate and sustainable energy
policy
Re-vitalising the European Dream:
A corporate view
Respondents have mixed views on how effective current EU renewable energy policy will be
By 2050, the EU objective is that 40-80% of energy will be renewable energy, what do you think will be the outcome of this policy?
Respondents by country
Note: Numbers may not add to 100% due to rounding.
Source: International Energy Agency data, Booz & Company and INSEAD 2011 State of Europe Survey (2,030 respondents); Booz & Company analysis
24
27%
DE BE
22%20%
PL
36%
47% 42%
45%
PT IT
42%
15%
31%33%
56%
29%
NO
31%
38%
27%
NL
31%
14%
RO
45%
17%
54%
20%
HUESGR
15%
UK
40% 37%38%
58%
28%
SE
22%
26%
38%31%31%
CH
100%
41%
40%
14%
Avg
41%
BG
27%
38%
23%
16%
30%
38% 35%
40%
DK AT FR
53%
25%31%
42%48%
28%
37% 33%
24% 23%
42%
37%
FI
49%
31%
IE
21%
33%
40%
37%
The EU will lack execution capabilities
EU companies will pay to meet the targets
EU companies will benefit from this energy policy
Reenergising the European economy – Climate and sustainable energy policy
32%
47%
7%
Strengthen education and
skills of the workforce
30%
17%
50%
10%
6%
42%
38%
Create leadership in
technological innovation
20%
1%
Reinforce specialisation by
country (wind, water, solar)
100%
1% 4%
39%
56%
25
Leadership in innovation and strengthening the Eur. skill base are considered to be the best ways to attract FDI in sustainable energy
Note: Numbers may not add to 100% due to rounding.
Source: Booz & Company and INSEAD 2011 State of Europe Survey (2,031 respondents on innovation; 2,022 on education; 2,018 on specialisation and 2,013 on subsidisation). Booz & Company analysis
All respondents
DisagreeAgree Strongly disagreeStrongly agree
How could the EU leverage sustainable energy to foster foreign investments inside the EU?
95% 92%
58%
36%
Reinforce subsidised policy
to foster production and
consumption
Reenergising the European economy – Climate and sustainable energy policy
With the exception of Poland, respondents look to the EU for a unified position on climate
Note: Numbers may not add to 100% due to rounding.
Source: Booz & Company and INSEAD 2011 State of Europe Survey (1,927 respondents); Booz & Company analysis
All respondents
On which topics should the EU take a unified position to increase its voice in international institutions? - Climate and sustainable energy
26
1%1%
6%
24%
33%
HU
15%
23%
62%
UK
8%
7%
36%
49%
FR
2%10%
36%
52%
CH
4%6%
47%
43%
DK
7%4%
28%
61%
NL
1%9%
31%
58%
AT
5%5%
31%
60%
SE
2%7%
33%
58%
ES
5%4%
34%
57%
DE
3%6%
40%
51%
100%
PL
24%
19%
IT
4%5%
38%
54%
RO
8%
38%
54%
BG
7%
40%
53%
FI
6%
26%
68%
NO
48%
45%
BE
6%
27%
67%
GR
3%
28%
68%
PT
3%
33%
63%
IE
2%
37%
61%
Avg
4%6%
36%
54%
Disagree Strongly disagreeAgreeStrongly agree
Reenergising the European economy – Climate and sustainable energy policy
Overview of the study
Re-energising the European economy
Reshaping the European social
model
Redefining the European role in
international affairs
Re-vitalising the European Dream:
A corporate view
Respondents were asked key questions about their views on the European social model
27
European social model
Should EU member states share a common social model? If so, what
would it entail and what should it resemble?
What trade-offs would be implied/ required?
Declining workforce
Education
The EU is expected to face a deficit of 20.4m workers by 2060. How can
this be offset to guarantee the balance of our social model?
Should we use subsidies to provide the unemployed and with skills to
contribute to the labour market?
What about encouraging extra-EU migration or expanding the EU’s
borders to provide easy access to labour?
How will European education evolve in the 2030 horizon?
How well does today’s education fit with the needs of business? How do
business leaders expect this relationship to evolve?
Will we be able to close the education gap between Eastern and
Western Europe?
Reshaping the European social
model
European social model
Declining European workforce
Education
Re-vitalising the European Dream:
A corporate view
28
While a majority indicate that the EU should strive for a common social model, they were not aligned on which model to choose
Note: Numbers may not add to 100% due to rounding.
Source: Booz & Company and INSEAD 2011 State of Europe Survey (1,961 respondents); Booz & Company analysis
10%
40%
FI
47%
13%
41%
SE
38%
21%
41%
PT
42%
46%
13%
HU
46%
38%
15%
ES
38%
42%
20%
BE
44%
23%
33%
IT
31%
33%
35%
NL
49%
15%
36%
IE
21%
50%
29%
RO
46%
25%
29%
GR
51%
19%
30%
100%
NODK
34%
22%
44%
DE
23%
25%
52%
CH
14%
33%
53%
AT
44%
20%
37%
UK
18%
42%
40%
FR
42%
18%
40%
50%
BG
40%
7%
53%
PL
9%
36%
55%
Avg
33%
29%
38%
Strong welfare stateFlexible labour marketNo common social model
Towards which social model should the EU strive?Respondents by country
62%
Reshaping the European social
model
European social model
Declining European workforce
Education
Re-vitalising the European Dream:
A corporate view
29
To compensate for the decline in the Eur. workforce, respondents are much less willing to enlarge the EU than welcome extra-EU migrants
Note: Numbers may not add to 100% due to rounding.
Source: Booz & Company and INSEAD 2011 State of Europe Survey (1,949 respondents on reintegration of unemployed; 1,944 on female integration; 1,942 on extra-EU migrations and 1,938 on potential new members); Booz & Company analysis
22% 25%30%
40%
Leverage the
demographic growth of
potential new members
19%
32%
100%8%
Resort to extra-EU migrations
12%
47%
10%
Subsidise female
integration in the workforce
8%
50%
18%
Subsidise reintegration of
unemployed in the labour market
8%
54%
16%
Strongly disagreeDisagreeAgreeStrongly agree
All respondents
The EU workforce will decline by 20.4 million workers (2020-2060). How to offset this
decrease to guarantee the balance of our social model?
70% 68%57%
40%
30
With the exception of the Swiss, a majority of respondents approve of subsidies to reintegrate the unemployed in labour market
The EU workforce will decline by 20.4 million workers (2020-2060). How to offset this
decrease to guarantee the balance of our social model?
- Subsidise reintegration of unemployed in the labour market
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
8%7%6%5%4%0%
Unemployment rate, Jan. 2011
15%14%13%12%11%10%9%
CHPL HU
ITDENL
PTFRATNO ROUK DK IE
BE BGSE
GRFI
Unemployment growth rates and opinions on subsidies to reintegrate the unemployed1)2)
%
1) Responses by country with sample size > 10. 2) Statistics for Greece and Romania: Dec. 2010. 3) Selected industries.
Source: Data: Eurostat, IMD, WE, Cedefop. Booz & Company and INSEAD 2011 State of Europe Survey (1,949 respondents); Booz & Company analysis
Transportation
65%
Health
67%
Bus. Services
70%
Agriculture
71%
Education
79%
% of jobs
needed7.0% 6.5% 21.5% 9.7% 25.9%
Opinion on subsidies for reintegration of the unemployed3)
% of resp. favouring
subsidies to reintegrate
unemployed into workforce
50%
Avg. 71%
31
Similarly, subsidizing female integration in the workforce is privileged by respondents from all countries except Switzerland
The EU workforce will decline by 20.4 million workers (2020-2060). How to offset this
decrease to guarantee the balance of our social model?
- Subsidise female integration in the workforce
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0%
CH
PTPLES DK
Female participation
in workforce, 2010
96%95%94%93%92%91%90%89%88%87%86%85%84%83%82%81%80%79%78%77%76%75%74%
% of resp.
wishing to subsidise
female integration
SEUK DEIT IE
73%
BE FRATGR FI
NL
Female participation in the labour force and approval for subsidies to reintegrate
women into the labour force1)2)3)
%
1) Responses by country with sample size > 10. 2) January 2011 for Switzerland. 3) Female participation is defined as 'female-to-male participation ratio in the labour force.'
Note: Numbers may not add to 100% due to rounding.
Source: Data: EVA, IMD. Booz & Company and INSEAD 2011 State of Europe Survey, (1,944 respondents); Booz & Company analysis
26%
Female
14%9%
49%
17%
57%
Male
28%
Male vs. Female respondents %
27%8%
Total respondents
100%
50%
18% Strongly agree
Agree
Disagree
Strongly disagree
All respondents%
Avg. 68%
32
Most respondents see extra-EU migration as a viable option to address the future needs of the labour market
The EU workforce will decline by 20.4 million workers (2020-2060). How to offset this
decrease to guarantee the balance of our social model?
- Resort to extra-EU migration
Additional migrants needed by 2020 and opinion on extra-EU migration1) 2)
%
1) Responses by country with sample size > 10.
2) January 2011 for Switzerland. Migration needed to maintain the active pop. at 2008 level / Expected migration for 2008-2020 - Result is % of 2008 active pop.
Source: Data: Eurostat, IMD, WEF, Cedefop. Booz & Company and INSEAD 2011 State of Europe Survey (1,942 respondents); Booz & Company analysis
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Additional migrants needed by 20202 (thousands)
1009080706050403020100
SE
RO
PTPLNL
IT
IE
HUGR
UK
FR FIES
DK
DE
BE
AT
Avg. 57%
% of resp. wishing to resort
to extra-EU migration
Relative number of migrants needed (min. 857k, max. 18,208k, avg. 6,207k)
33
Only 41% of respondents favour enlarging the EU to ease anticipated labour shortages–vs. 31% to stimulate economic growth
The EU workforce will decline by 20.4 million workers (2020-2060). How to offset this
decrease to guarantee the balance of our social model?
- Leverage the demographic growth of potential new members (e.g., Turkey)
25%20%0%
PL
SE
IE
IT
PT
UK50%
NL
RO
FI
DK
CH
NO
AT
BE
BG
GR
DE
FRHU
60%
55%
45%
40%
35%
30%
ES
0%
50%45%40%35%30%
Enlargement for growth vs. enlargement to compensate workforce%
1) Responses by country with sample size > 10.
Source: Booz & Company and INSEAD 2011 State of Europe Survey (1,938 respondents); Booz & Company analysis
Avg. 41%
% of resp. approving of EU
enlargement to compensate
workforce deficit
% of resp. approving of EU enlargement
to stimulate high economic growth
Avg. 31%
R²=0.358
Reshaping the European social
model
European social model
Declining European workforce
Education
Re-vitalising the European Dream:
A corporate view
20%
30%
44%
100%
EU will be home to more top
100 universities (vs. 28 today)
4%
43%
10%
The education gap between Eastern
and Western Europe will close
3%
59%
8%
Education’s fit with business will improve
1%
66%
12%
34
Respondents are rather confident on the future competitiveness of the European education system in the world
Note: Numbers may not add to 100% due to rounding.
Source: Times Higher Education (2010), Booz & Company and INSEAD 2011 State of Europe Survey (1,942 respondents); Booz & Company analysis
All respondents
How will the education system evolve towards 2030?
53%67%
78%
Strongly disagreeDisagreeAgreeStrongly agree
35
A strong majority believe that education’s fit with business will improve by 2030
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
Fit of today’s education system to business needs (from 1 to 7)
6.05.55.04.54.03.53.00
SE
RO
PLNO
NL
ITIE
HU
GR
UK
FR
FI
ESDK
DE
CH
BG
BE
AT
Expected improvement in education’s fit with business vs. current fit1)
%
1) Answer to the question 'How well does the educational system in your country meet the needs of a competitive economy? [1 = not well at all; 7 = very well] .
Source: WEF data, Booz & Company and INSEAD 2011 State of Europe Survey (1,942 respondents); Booz & Company analysis
% affirmative answers
How will the education system evolve towards 2030?
- Education’s fit with business needs will be improved
4.0 4.3 4.8
Avg. 78%
36
A small majority thinks that the European universities will become more internationally competitive by 2030
75%70%65%60%55%50%0
SE
RO
PT
55%NL
IT
IE
HU
GR
UK
FR
FI
ES
DK
DE
BE
AT
75%
65%
60%
50%
45%
40%
PL
35%
% of 25-34 with a sec. or ter. education (2009)
95%90%85%80%
EU will rank more universities in the top 100 vs.
share of 25-34 years old with secondary or tertiary education%
Source: Eurostat data, Booz & Company and INSEAD 2011 State of Europe Survey (1,942 respondents); Booz & Company analysis
% affirmative answers
How will the education system evolve towards 2030?
- EU will rank more universities in the top 100 (currently 28)
Avg. 53%
R²=0.275
Overview of the study
Re-energising the European economy
Reshaping the European social model
Redefining the European role in
international affairs
Re-vitalising the European Dream:
A corporate view
Respondents were asked about the political influence of the EU, prospects for EU enlargement and trade policy
37
EU presence and influence
What is the political influence of the EU today? What will it be in
2030?
Where should Europe focus its international presence and influence?
Should the EU pursue its international aid policy?
EU enlargement
Trade policy
Should the EU continue to expand its borders?
If so, which countries should be prioritised for entry by 2030?
What should be the trade policy of the EU?
Is free trade the best policy option for Europe?
Redefining the European role in
international affairs
EU presence and influence
EU enlargement
Trade policy
Re-vitalising the European Dream:
A corporate view
European business leaders believe that the EU’s political influence will increase by 2030
Note: Bolded countries are among initial six EU countries (Germany, France, Italy, Belgium, Luxembourg, Netherlands).
Source: Booz & Company and INSEAD 2011 State of Europe Survey ('Today': 1,924 respondents and '2030': 1,925 respondents); Booz & Company analysis
60%
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
38%36%34%32%30%28%26%24%22%20%18%16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%
SE
RO
PT
PL
NONL
55%IE
HU
GR
UK
FR
FI
IT
DK
DE
CH
BG
BEAT
ES
What is the political influence of the EU today? And what will it be in 2030?
% of respondents who thinks that the EU’s political influence is strong and global today vs. in 2030
Avg. 16%
Avg. 34%
In 2030
Today
R²=0.366EU founding
member states
38
y = x
17%15%15%
China
3%
35% 35%
3%
Russia
100%
46%
36%
IndiaEurope
45%
3%
47%
1% 4%29%
67%
31% 34%18%16%
Other Asia
25%100%
15%
4%
South AmericaMiddle East
6%
53%51%
42%
4%
49%
5%
29% 18%
Africa
Respondents would like to see Europe increase its influence worldwide, though not to the same extent in all regions
Note: Numbers may not add to 100% due to rounding.
Source: Booz & Company and INSEAD 2011 State of Europe Survey ('Europe': 1,894 respondents; 'Russia': 1,881; 'India': 1,879; 'China': 1,888; 'Africa': 1,866; 'Middle East': 1,860; 'Other Asia': 1,803 and 'South America': 1,814); Booz & Company analysis
Agree Strongly disagreeDisagreeStrongly agreeStrongly agree
All respondents%
Where should Europe focus its international presence and influence?
96% 82% 82% 80%
80% 78% 64% 60%
39
A majority of respondents believe that Europe should focus on the Middle East
Where should Europe focus its international presence and influence?
- Middle East
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
Oil imports from the Persian Gulf as a share of total energy consumption
6.0%5.55.04.54.03.53.02.52.01.51.00.50
SE
ITIE
HU
GR
UK
FR
FI
ES
DKDE
CH
BE
AT
PL
PT
NL
NO
Presence/influence in the Middle-East vs. national oil imports from the Persian Gulf1 in the total energy consumption%
1) The Persian Gulf countries include: Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Source: Europe’s energy portal data (energy.eu ), U.S. Energy Information Administration data, Booz & Company and INSEAD 2011 State of Europe Survey (1,860 respondents); Booz & Company analysis
% of respondents who agree that Europe should focus on the Middle East
40
R²=0.444
Avg. 78%
A majority of respondents favour increasing Europe’s presence in other parts of Asia
Note: Numbers may not add to 100% due to rounding.
Source: UN Statistics, Booz & Company and INSEAD 2011 State of Europe Survey (1,803 respondents); Booz & Company analysis
All respondents%
Where should Europe focus its international presence and influence?
- Other Asia
41
100%
RO
64%
27%
9%
HU
8%
46%
38%
8%
SE
10%
44%
39%
8%
PT
6%
38%
36%
20%
PL
19%
24%
52%
5%
FI
3%
38%
41%
17%
AT
8%
33%
50%
10%
DE
7%
32%
46%
15%
IT
2%
37%
44%
17%
NO
36%
57%
7%
BE
2%
33%
51%
13%
UK
8%
27%
51%
13%
FR
5%
29%
46%
20%
NL
3%
29%
51%
17%
BG
8%
23%
46%
23%
DK
7%
22%
56%
15%
GR
2%
26%
62%
11%
CH
0%
25%
59%
16%
ES
3%
21%
59%
17%
IE
24%
55%
21%
Avg
5%
31%
49%
15%
Strongly disagreeDisagreeAgreeStrongly agree
History influences commercial trade flows at the country level
Note: Numbers may not add to 100% due to rounding.
Source: Booz & Company and INSEAD 2011 State of Europe Survey (1,814 respondents); Booz & Company analysis
42
9%
9%6%
58%
45%34%
41%
6%
52% 55%
PLSENL
41%
17% 16%
44%
CHDE
7%
40%
GR
100%
8%
35%
5%
39%
14%
48%52% 30%
RO
52%
10%3%
18%
AT FI
42%
15%
2%
48%
HU
15%
26%
34%
34%
49%
16%
49%
10%
UK
16%
IT NO
38%
17%
40%33%
BE
17%
7%
5%
47%
36%
3%
53%
12%
DK
39%
24%
FR
8%
46%
4% 9%
BGIE
39%
9%
13%
42%
21%
30%
49%
17%
25%
PT
3%
28%
17%
45%50%
28%
ES
6%
34%
42%
18%
Avg
Strongly agree DisagreeAgree Strongly disagree
All respondents%
Where should Europe focus its international presence and influence?
- South America
Two-thirds of respondents believe that the EU should continue to pursue its current international aid policy (~0.6% of EU GDP)
The EU spends ~0.6% of its GDP in international aid while the US spends only ~0.2%.
- Should the EU pursue its current international aid policy?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
ODA as % of gross national income (2009)
1.2%1.1%1.0%0.9%0.8%0.7%0.6%0.5%0.4%0.3%0.2%0.1%0.0%
IE
BEATSEESGR
DEIT NLFRCH
PT DKUK
FI NOBG
RO PL
HU
National official development assistance (ODA) vs. continue aid policy to increase influence %
1) The alternative response is 'No, given the financial instability in Europe.'
Source: Eurostat data, Booz & Company and INSEAD 2011 State of Europe Survey (1,912 respondents); Booz & Company analysis
% of respondents who agree with ODA policy to increase influence 1)
43
Avg. 67%
Redefining the European role in
international affairs
EU presence and influence
EU enlargement
Trade policy
Re-vitalising the European Dream:
A corporate view
24%
30%41%
7%18%
28%
24%
100%
Countries from the Balkans
(Croatia, Albania, Bosnia)
22%
30%
Turkey Far Eastern European countries
(Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova)
15%
46%
16%
44
While most favour admitting the Balkans to the EU, many are hesitant with regards to Turkey and far E. European countries
Note: Numbers may not add to 100% due to rounding.
Source: Booz & Company and INSEAD 2011 State of Europe Survey ('Far Eastern countries': 1,907 respondents; 'Balkan countries': 1,919 respondents; 'Turkey': 1,942 respondents); Booz & Company analysis
All respondents
Which countries should enter the EU by 2030?
Strongly disagreeStrongly agree Agree Disagree
37%46%
62%
Admission of the Balkan states is the favoured means of EU enlargement prior to 2030
Note: Numbers may not add to 100% due to rounding.
Source: Booz & Company and INSEAD 2011 State of Europe Survey (1,919 respondents); Booz & Company analysis
All respondents%
Which countries should enter the EU by 2030? - Countries from the Balkans (Croatia, Albania, Bosnia, Serbia, Macedonia)
45
8%
25%
FR
17%
NL
100%
15%
14%
24%
46%
16%
PT
31%
22%
14%
62%
17%
BE
46%45%
9%
8%
ES IT
35%
50%
7%
39%
GR
11% 14% 16%
47%41%
7%
9%
21%22%
DE
13%
66%
27%
NO
28%
10%
34%
19%13%
BG CH
21%
62%
13%
DK
20%
45%46%
48%
27%
53%
29%
22%
24%
AT
22%
21%
44%
29%
5%
27%
45%
10%
50%
48%
22%
22%
14%
15%10%
21%
36%
FIPL RO
9%17%
UK
19% 15% 13%
41%
18%
41%
SE
50%
28%
6%
IE
12%
HU
20%
Avg
12%
Strongly agree Strongly disagreeAgree Disagree
Turkey is not seen as a desirable EU entry candidate in the medium term…
Note: Numbers may not add to 100% due to rounding.
Source: Booz & Company and INSEAD 2011 State of Europe Survey (1,942 respondents); Booz & Company analysis
All respondents%
Which countries should enter the EU by 2030?- Turkey
46
35%
27%34%
CH
17%
PT
24%
7%
43%
24%
20%
BE
20%
FRHU
18%
35%
21%
19%
SE
23%
32%
27%
13%
16%
9%
27%
27%
22%
32%
GR
35%
18%
22%
25%
IE BG
54%
27%
NO
15%
28%
25%
35%
35%
23%
26%
25%
31%
23%
46%
IT
23%
16%
24%
38%
FI
31%
14%9%
16%
38%
16%
29%
UK
35%
21%
ES
30%
DKNL
35%
23%26%
7%
PL
37%
RO
29%
17%
10%
21%
8%
24%
17%27% 28%
34%
46%
29%19%
Avg
38%
DE
30%
AT
100%
27%24%
30%
28%
18%
26%
Disagree Strongly disagreeAgreeStrongly agree
… nor are the far Eastern European countries
Note: Numbers may not add to 100% due to rounding. Countries in bold are EU founding members: Italy, France, Belgium, the Netherlands and Germany
Source: Booz & Company and INSEAD 2011 State of Europe Survey (1,907 respondents); Booz & Company analysis
All respondents%
Which countries should enter the EU by 2030? - Far Eastern European countries (Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova)
47
23%
43%
NO
33%
DK
24%
53%
3%
29%
SE
16%
35%
23%
CH DE
31%28%
41%
5%
NL
29%
33%
23%
7%
47%
4%
FR
3%
55%
14%
21%
38%
BE
100%8%
28%
42%
BG
22%
37%
13%
39%
7%
46%
15%
GR
10%
39%
5%
12%10%
3%
35%
ES
49%
23%
9%6%
31%
ITUK
8%
HU
46%
30%
38%
46%
IE
15%15%
22%
17%
15%12% 15%
34%
32%
32%
31%
AT
10%
23%40%
43%
32%
Avg
36% 39%
PL
35%
22%
32%
35%
FI
41%
36%
48%
30%
21%
7%
ROPT
Strongly agree Strongly disagreeDisagreeAgree
Redefining the European role in
international affairs
EU presence and influence
EU enlargement
Trade policy
Re-vitalising the European Dream:
A corporate view
12%23%
41%
39%
8%
3%
4%
10%
49%
48%
2%
28%
14%
Adopt protectionist
measures
Respond strongly to
protectionist threats
38%
Implement a social tariff
100%
Foster free trade
47%
37%
36%
Favour intra-EU trade
42%
17%4%
48
European business leaders overwhelmingly favour free trade over protectionism – with a certain dichotomy in the responses
Note: Numbers may not add to 100% due to rounding.
Source: Booz & Company and INSEAD 2011 State of Europe Survey (1,899 respondents on free trade policy; 1,898 respondents on protectionist threats; 1,895 on intra-EU trade; 1,896 on 'social tariff' and 1,891 on protectionist measures); Booz & Company analysis
All respondents
%
In your opinion, what should be the trade policy of the EU?
Strongly disagreeAgreeStrongly agree Disagree
90% 84%74%
42%
13%
Free trade is clearly the trade policy espoused by business leaders
Note: Numbers may not add to 100% due to rounding.
Source: The Economist, 'Capitalism's waning popularity', April 7th 2011, Booz & Company and INSEAD 2011 State of Europe Survey (1,899 respondents); Booz & Company analysis
All respondents%
In your opinion, what should be the trade policy of the EU? - Foster free trade
49
3%1%3%1%
9%
NO PT
53%44%
2%
GR
56%
30%
ROPL ESUK NL
41%
5%
35%
68%
DE
47%
18%
59%
DK
41%
6%2%
36%
FR
3%
29%
FI
4%
42%
3%6%
71%
45%
38%
2%
HU
52% 48%
CH
25%
43% 41%
6%
27%
38%
BEBG
100%
41%
AT
12%
53%35%
73%
53%
45%
13%
61%
47%
55%
Avg IESE
15%
47%
17%
38%43%
IT
7%
46%
23%
56%46%
2%
48%
2%8%
42%
48%39%
Strongly disagreeDisagreeAgreeStrongly agree
50
There is a consensus that the EU should strongly respond to protectionist threats
Lowest % of interviewees who agree
or strongly agree
Across country 74%
Across industry 80%
Across sector 80%
Across age 69%
Across gender 74%
Across level of seniority 79%
In your opinion, what should be the trade policy of the EU? - Respond strongly to protectionist threats (by complaints to WTO, or counter measures)
% of respondents
Strongly agree
Agree
84%
47%
37%
Source: Booz & Company and INSEAD 2011 State of Europe Survey (1,898 respondents); Booz & Company analysis
Respondents from countries with negative trade balances tend to seek to favour intra-EU trade, a more protectionist stance
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Net trade in goods and services as % of GDP
15%7%6%5%43%21%0-1%-2-3%-4-5%-6-7%-8
NODK
SE
DEFIUK NLPLIE
HUPTAT
GR IT BEES
FR
Net trade in goods and services vs. Favour intra-EU trade %
Source: Eurostat data, Booz & Company and INSEAD 2011 State of Europe Survey (1,912 respondents); Booz & Company analysis
% of respondents who agree that intra-EU trade should be favoured
51
In your opinion, what should be the trade policy of the EU? - Favour intra-EU trade
Avg. 74%
R²=0.444
Social tariffs as an EU trade policy divides the opinion
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Social security paid by employer as a % of total labour costs
31%30%29%28%27%26%25%24%23%22%21%20%19%18%17%16%15%14%13%12%0%
PLSE
DK CH DEUKHU
NLFIAT
BG BE
ES
ROPT FR
Support for a social tariff vs. Social security contributions paid by employers %
Note: Data for social security paid by employer in Italy not available; 43% of Italian respondents replied favourable (‘agree’ or ‘strongly agree’)
Source: Eurostat data, Booz & Company and INSEAD 2011 State of Europe Survey (1,896 respondents); Booz & Company analysis
% of respondents who support a 'social tariff'
52
In your opinion, what should be the trade policy of the EU?- Implement a social tariff to reduce imports from countries with lower social protection
Avg. 42%
R²=0.216
The overwhelming majority of respondents is against protectionism
Note: Numbers may not add to 100% due to rounding.
Source: Time, 'Protectionism on the Rise in Europe?', 4 Feb. 2009, Booz & Company and INSEAD 2011 State of Europe Survey (1,891 respondents); Booz & Company analysis
All respondents%
In your opinion, what should be the trade policy of the EU? – Adopt protectionist measures
53
9%
40%
IE
3% 3%
46%
65%
7%
31%
53%
8%
54%
54%
46%
ES
16%
BG
13%
41%
7%
51%
49%
1%
46%
5%
RO
29%
5%
NL
33%
33%
47%
3%
DK
21%40%
42%
31%
GR
46%
AT
10%13%
PT
66%59%
28%
3%
38%
2%6%
37%
37%
3%5%
25%
3% 1%
IT
38%
10%
NOHU
47%
13%
CH
38%
FISE
16%
FR
100%
64%
31%
UK
26%
8%
PL
43%
Avg
33%
23%
37%50%
56%
BE
33%
DE
49%
39%
10%3%
71%
Strongly disagreeStrongly agree Agree Disagree
Study contact information
Re-vitalising the European Dream:
A corporate view
Per-Ola KarlssonSenior Vice PresidentBooz &Company+46 8 50619049Per-ola.karlsson@booz.com
Melissa JacobSenior AssociateBooz & Company+33 1 44343131Melissa.jacob@booz.com
Ludo Van der HeydenThe Mubadala Chaired Professor in
Corporate Governance and StrategyINSEAD+33 1 60724003Ludo.VAN-DER-HEYDEN@insead.edu
Bruno LanvinDirector of e-LABINSEAD+33 1 6071262Bruno.LANVIN@insead.edu
Robert GogelEuropean Executive Council+33 1 47237755state@dza.fr
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