com 4fk3 financial statement analysis week 7, 2012 assessing profitability and risk

Com 4FK3

Financial Statement Analysis

Week 7, 2012

Assessing Profitability and Risk

2

Adjusting Income

• Often done by Analysts to get a better picture of the financial health of a company Reverse the effect of accounting decisions

made by management Remove some artefacts caused by GAAP

• Attempt to show permanent earnings of the company regardless of what is presented by management or GAAP

3

Why Adjust I/S?

• GAAP Income reported is not sustainable Primary use of analysis is to forecast the future

• Income on the statement does not reflect the current year’s operations Gain on sale occurred over the holding period Special provision for bad debts reflects the

cumulative effect of many years misstatements

4

Earnings Quality

• Net income often contains unusual and not recurring items

• Analysis of ongoing profitability should remove the effect of such items (after-tax) e.g. Pepsi, in year 11, reports an impairment

and restructuring charge or $31, $19 after tax Add $19 to net income before finding ROA

5

Non-Recurring Charges

• Is the item really non-recurring? Some items labelled as non-recurring happen

for several years in a row, if an item is likely to be seen in subsequent years then it should be left in the income statement for analysis

An item that has recurred, but is related to a program that has completed can usually be removed form the statements for analysis

• Is this income level sustainable?

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Other Unusual Items

• Items to consider Discontinued operations Extraordinary items Changes in accounting principals Other comprehensive income items Asset impairment Restructuring charges Changes in estimates

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Discontinued Operations

• Not relevant for predicting future results e.g. the company no longer operates grocery

stores

• GAAP requires 3 years of income statement effect to allow time series comparison For finance, we would like more Further disclosure is not required

8

Extraordinary Items

• Must meet 3 criteria1. Unusual in nature

2. Infrequent in occurrence

3. Material in amount

• Examples include; lawsuit settlements, gain or loss on sale of asset, etc.

9

Changes in Accounting Principals

• Why is it done? Imposed from without Voluntarily

• Cumulative impact shown in year adopted Is this relevant to this year? Does it make a significant impact on the time

series behaviour of income

10

Other Comprehensive Income

• Not included on the income statement, but on the balance sheet in owners’ equity section under GAAP

• Include; unrealized holding period gains, foreign currency translation, derivatives held as cash flow hedge, minimum pension obligations

• Analyst’s discretion on how to handle

11

Asset Impairment

• Management has considerable discretion on when or how much is recognized Is the charge relevant to the year in which it is

recognized?

• Effect: lowered income this year, higher income (less depreciation) is future years Is the charge taken in a bad year?

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Restructuring Charges

• Wide discretion allowed, no FASB rules on how or when to report

• Does the firm spread out the costs or do they take a “big bath”?

• Is the firm regularly taking restructuring charges?

13

Changes in Estimates

• Every so often a firm realizes that an estimate made in the past is wrong

• GAAP requires effect to be spread over current and future periods Prior years results, where incorrect estimates

were included, cannot be restated e.g. WT Grant and special provision

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Profitability

• Two main measures of profitability Return on Assets: the ability of the firm to

generate money independent of the capital structure of the firm

Return on Common Equity; the ability of the firm to earn money for the shareholders

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ROA

• The return on assets shows how well the firm is using its assets to generate income

assets totalaverage

earningsin interest Minority expenseinterest ratetax -1IncomeNet ROA

Why average total assets?Income statement is for the yearBalance sheet is “as of” a point in time

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Disaggregating ROA

• Also known as the Dupont identity

ROA = Profit Margin for ROA X Asset Turnover

Net Income + interest expense (net of tax) + Minority interest in

earnings =

Net Income + interest expense (net of tax) + Minority interest in

earnings X Sales

Average Total Assets SalesAverage Total

Assets

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Insight

• Profit margin for ROA measures the firm’s ability to generate income for a specific level of sales

• Asset turnover measures the ability of the firm to manage the level of investment or to generate sales from a particular level of investment

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Year 9 Year 10 Year 11ROA 11.3% 13.9% 14.8%Profit Margin 10.2% 11.1% 11.7%Asset Turnover 1.1 1.3 1.3

ROA for Pepsi

• Over the 3 year period Pepsi has been able to increase ROA by increasing its profit margin, and also by improving the asset turnover rate between years 9 and 10

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Industry Factors

• Firms in different industries have different levels of appropriate asset turnover

• Utilities have a high profit margin but low asset turnovers

• Grocery stores have low profit margins and high asset turnovers

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Changing ROA

• Three factors helping to explain differences between firms and patterns of change over time are; Operating leverage Cyclicality of sales Product life cycle

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Analysing Profit Margin

• The use of common size income statements can highlight the source of profit margin for ROA

• Statements for Pepsi shown belowYear 9 Year 10 Year 11

Sales 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%Other Revenue 0.8% 0.8% 0.8%Cost of Goods Sold -41.1% -40.1% -39.9%Selling and Administrative -43.9% -43.6% -43.1%Goodwill Amortization -0.8% -0.6% -0.6%Income Taxes -4.8% -5.4% -5.5%Profit Margin 10.2% 11.1% 11.7%

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Cost of Goods Sold

• Changes in this account can be due to several factors Increased demand allowing for higher prices Reduced prices to help capture market share Productivity of production Shift in product mix

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Selling and Administrative

• From the analysts point of view this is an unfortunate lumping of Fixed (administrative) costs Variable (selling) costs

• For Pepsi, the change is almost totally explained in one note… advertising expense increased every year, but decreased as a percent of sales

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Analysing Asset Turnover

• It is often beneficial to break down asset turnover into; accounts receivable turnover, inventory turnover, Fixed assets turnover

assets fixed average

SalesTurnoverAsset Fixed

inventory average

sold goods ofCost TurnoverInventory

receivable accounts average

accounton salesNet Turnover Receivable Accounts

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ROCE

• The rate of return on common shareholders’ equity measures what income is available to the common shareholders

• Shareholders’ equity excludes minority interest in net assets and preferred shares

equity rs'shareholdecommon Average

dividendstock Preferred-incomeNet ROCE

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ROA to ROCE

• Return on assets can be broken down into; Return to creditors Return to preferred shareholders ROCE

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Disaggregating ROCE

ROCE = Profit Margin for ROCE X Asset Turnover X Capital Structure Leverage

Net Income to Common Net Income to Common Sales Average Total AssetsAverage common

shareholders equitySales Average Total Assets

Average common shareholders equity

= X X

Year ROCE =Profit Margin

for ROCE XAsset

Turnover X

Capital Structure Leverage

9 33.4% 9.1% 1.1 3.310 36.1% 10.4% 1.3 2.811 11.1% 11.1% 1.3 2.6

Breakdown of ROCE for Pepsi

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Earnings Per Common Share

• Another common measure of profitability

• Basic

• Assigns a share of the reported income to each of the common shares outstanding

goutstandin shares average Weighted

dividends share Preferred-earningsNet EPS

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Diluted EPS

• Companies with outstanding convertible bonds, convertible preferred shares, warrants or stock options have to report the effect of this on EPS Numerator; add back interest and dividends

paid to convertibles, also add back stock option expenses reported as compensation

Denominator; add net shares issued

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Criticism of EPS

• Combines profit with capital structure decisions a company could have declining earnings but

increasing EPS if buying back shares EPS falls significantly if there is a stock split

• EPS is not comparable across firms since each company has different numbers of common shares outstanding

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Interpreting Ratios

• Compare to earlier periods How has the firm’s profitability changed? Earlier periods give a benchmark

• Compare to other firms What ratios are common in the industry? How widely are these ratios distributed? Where does the firm fall in this industry?

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Types of Risk

• Six main types of risk Short term liquidity risk Long term solvency risk Credit risk Bankruptcy risk Market equity beta risk Financial statement reporting manipulation risk

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Short Term Liquidity Risk

• Is the firm likely to get into a cash flow problem and have to raise money quickly?

• Main ratios for this are Current ratio Quick ratio Operating cash flow to current liabilities Accounts receivable, accounts payable and

inventory turnover ratios

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Current and Quick

• Current ratio is a simple ratio, divide current assets by current liabilities Should be substantially above 1

• Quick or Acid test ratio; only uses cash and assets that can be quickly converted to cash; marketable securities accounts receivable (usually but not always) inventories (less frequently used)

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OCF to Current Liabilities

• Divide cash flow from operations by average current liabilities

• For a healthy manufacturing or retail firm, this number should be greater than 40%

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Working Capital Ratios

inventory beginning-inventory endingCGSPurchases

payable accounts average

PurchasesTurnover Payable Accounts

inventory average

sold goods ofCost TurnoverInventory

receivable accounts average

SalesTurnover Receivable Accounts

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Long Term Solvency Risk

• How much leverage is in the company’s capital structure

• Note; lease liabilities are long term debt

assets Total

sliabilitie Totalratio assets tosLiabilitie

equity rs'Shareholde

debt term-Longratioy Debt/Equit

equity rs'Shareholdedebt term-Long

debt term-LongratioDebt term-Long

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Interest Coverage

• In addition to the total amount of debt, the analyst should consider how easy it is for the firm to pay the interest on that debt

Net Income + Interest Expense + Income Tax Expense + Minority Interest in Earnings

Interest Expense

Cash Flow from Operations + Payments for Interest and Income TaxesCash Payments for Interest

Interest Coverage Ratio =

Interest Coverage Ratio Based on Cash Flows

=

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Credit Risk

• Factors to consider by lenders Circumstances leading to need for loan Cash Flows Collateral Capacity Contingencies Character of managers Conditions

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Predicting Bankruptcy

• Investors can lose a lot of money if a firm goes bankrupt

• For this reason there has been a lot of research into predicting bankruptcy Type I error; not predicting a bankruptcy Type II error; false prediction of bankruptcy

• Altman and Ohlson models

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Altman’s Z-score

• Calculated Z-score, less than 1.81, high bankruptcy chance, up to 3.00 is a gray area and over 3 is safe

• Type II errors are quite low• Type I errors (more expensive) get quite

high more than 3 years in advance• WT Grant went gray in 1973. why so late?

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Ohlson’s Probability

• Used logit analysis to generate a number for the probability of bankruptcy A probability of greater than 3.8% would

identify a firm as likely to bankrupt, that rate minimized the Type I & II errors

WT Grant did not exceed that level even in 1974

Only mentioned in passing in the current edition.Skip the Ohlson requirement in Kroger

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Market Risk

• From CAPM, only non-diversifiable risk is rewarded in the market

• E(R) = Rf + (Rm – Rf)b• Determinants of beta include

Variability of sales Operating leverage Financial leverage

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Leverage Measures

• Degree of operating leverage

• Degree of financial leverage

• Combined leverage

FCVCPX

VCPX

salesin change %

EBITin change %

IEBIT

EBIT

EBITin change %

EPSin change %

IFCVCPX

VCPX

salesin change %

EPSin change %

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Leverage Example

• PCG Inc. has; Fixed costs of $275,000 Variable costs of $1.75 per unit Selling price of $25 per unit Expected sales of 20,000 units

What is the degree of operating leverage?

45.2

000,27575.125000,20

75.125000,20

FCVCPX

VCPX

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Leverage Example Continued

• PCG Inc. also has; Interest expense of $125,000

What is the degree of financial leverage?

What is the degree of combined leverage?

15.7000,125000,27575.125000,20

75.125000,20

IFCVCPX

VCPX

92.2000,125000,190

000,190

IEBIT

EBIT