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Ilmasto muuttuu

J Keronen

Ilmasto muuttuu

J Keronen

Lämpöpumppualan huippuseminaari ja näyttelytiistaina 28.11.2017

41 membersGross sales >100 billion euros

Market cap around 50% of Nasdaq OMX Helsinki

Climate Leadership Council

Global temperature anomalies

“The warming has exceeded 1.1 C or 1.3 if

the Arctic areas are taken into account.

Economic losses have increased 50 fold

since the 1950’s.

The recent hurricanes have broken single

event records and the trend continues.

Besides economic losses migration, refugee

problems and humanitarian crisis are

matters of concern.”

Petteri Taalas, Secretary-General, World

Meteorological Organization (Zero Emission

Summit, NY, Sept 21, 2017)

Current policies will lead to +3,6ºC and pledges to +2,8ºC warming

5

Zimbabwe has suffered $1.6 billion in damage from its 2016 drought. This is approximately 12% of their GDP. (Image credit:

Ziniyange Auntony/AFP/Getty Images.)

Fiji suffered $470 million in damage from Category 5 Cyclone Winston's impact in February 2016. ~10% of their GDP. (Image credit: My Fijian Images and Jah Ray.)

Vietnam: $6.7 billion damage from its 2016 drought. 4% of Vietnam's GDP (Image credit: STR/AFP/Getty Images)2016

J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council

J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council

Roadmap

Leading experts (Rockströmet.al., IEA/IRENA) have illustrated that when limiting warming below +2ºC we have 700-800 GtCO2 budget.

Johan Rockström et al. Science 2017;355:1269-1271

With current emissions levels, around 50 GtCO2/y this budget will be used in about 14–16 years, i.e. around 2032.

COP negotiation process Updated NDCs needed quickly. The role of non-state actors important.

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Global changes / Paris climate goals

- The Emissions Gap Report 2017; UN Environment concludes that the remaining carbon budget is 1000 GtCO2e starting from last IPCC report 2011. (This in synch with Rockström et.al., IEA/IRENA estimates (700-800 GtCO2 after 2017) since 2011-2016 emissions have been close 250 GtCO2.)

- A large gap exists between 2030 emission levels and those consistent with least- cost pathways to the 2°C and 1.5°C goals respectively. The 2°C emissions gap for the full implementtion of both the conditional and uncondtional NDCs for 2030 is 11 to 13.5 GtCO2e. The gap in the case of the 1.5°C target is 16 to 19 GtCO2e.

Global changes / Paris climate goalsThe Emissions Gap Report 2017 estimates a total emission reduction potential in 2030 of 33-38 GtCO2e/year.

Coal is still the biggest emitter and 6,683 coal-fired power plants create around 190 GtCO2e if run until the end of their lifetime. There are also additional 273 GW of coal-fired capacity in construction, and 570 GW in pre-construction (Shearer et al.

2017). If these will also run until the end of their assumed liftemeof 40 years, would lead to emissions of approximately 150 GtCO2e. Coal is close to 50% of the remaining carbon budget.

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• Clear seasonality

• Wind most competitive

• Intermittency needs

daily and seasonalstorages

• Low seasonality

• PV most competitive

• Intermittency needs

daily storages

2017

32,3 €/MWh2017

17,8 €/MWh

Global changes / Solar revolution

In Bonn Nov. 16 it was published that the India-led International Solar Alliance (ISA) plans to add 1,000 gigawatt (GW) of solar power across the globe by 2030 with an investment of nearly 1,200 billion euros. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/environment/the-good-earth/india-led-solar-alliance-to-add-1000gw-of-energy-by-2030/articleshow/61665841.cms

https://www.reuters.com/article/saudi-solar-bids/update-1-uaes-masdar-edf-energies-lead-bidding-for-saudi-solar-plant-idUSL8N1ME43W

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-01/cheaper-solar-in-india-prompts-rethink-for-more-coal-projects

https://electrek.co/2017/11/08/chilean-solar-down-26-as-important-as-saudi-arabia-at-1-79%C2%A2-kwh/

2017

18,2 €/MWh

Utility-scale solar LCOE dropped 86% in the last eight years. Solar is now 50 percent cheaper than new coal power in India.

Wind costs dropped 67%.

2017 2030

Pop. 0.35 billion 0.32 billion

GDP 7,6 $trillion 9.8 $trillion

2017 2030

Pop. 7,12 billion 8,80 billion

GDP 79 $trillion 116 $trillion

2017-11-29 Place where you are 122017-11-29 Place where you are 12

2017-11-29 Place where you are 12

We need to transform… … almost everything

J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council

New energy, storages

De/recarbonising industry New materials, active buildings

Sustainable forestry and land useActivating citizens

New agriculture, also C sinks

Changing taxes and financing

ICT, IoT everywhere

New market mechanisms, smart gridNew ”fuels” for transport

Approx. 70% of GHG emissions are related to household consumption

The average carbon footprint of the richest 10% is 11 times as high as that of the

poorest half of the population, and 60 times as high as that of the poorest 10%.

The average footprint of the richest 1% of people globally could be 175 times that of

the poorest 10%.

The richest 10% is responsible for almost 50% of CO2 emissions globally

Citizens have many options in reducing their carbon footprint

…use energy efficient devices…

Choose CO2-free electrity…

..use public transportation whenpossible and when not, switch to lowcarbon vehicles…

… compensateother emissions…

… use renewables…

… revise food portfolio..

…use energy when it is produced in a cleanest way …

..reduce unnecessary

energy use…

Do 2-4 permanent changes / year in 10 period.

… when possible choose lowcarbon product or service…

J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council, Stormwarning Association

Scalable climate solutions for citizens

Citizens Climate Pledge

100 million by 2020

-0,5-1,75 GtCO2eq/year

(+US$0,5-1,75 billion offsets)

Citizens climate actions

Zero Emission Day

launch NY 2017

>20 cities by 2020

100 smart ways to live sustainably

Finland 2017

X countries by 2020

Offsetting unavoidable emissionss

Climate Neutral Now

Green Button / Ticketmaster

- 100 million users and US$2/event

-> $200 m/y, 200 MtCO2eq/year

Forest restoration

Education

Climate change modules for education

EduCycle game: augmented reality for

planning a sustainable society

Engaging via sports

Save Pond Hockey

Meri-Teijo Golf

CO2 footprint of purchases

Baltic Sea Card / Mastercard

Rewards for low-CO2 purchases

Green Card, Korea / 15 million users

Engaging via events

- Flow Festival

- Indian Dance Festival

- Concerts: J Mraz, Lahti Symphony Orch.

Choice-based CO2 calculator

Climate Diet calculator

Finland 2015 � next EU, NA,

China, India

Inspiring

Interactive climate

theatre

Future Shorelines movie

CLC: Plan for 2017-2018Core projects

2017

• Climate positive forestry

2018

• Climate neutral transformation of Finland as part of the Nordics

• Energy

• Agriculture

• Transportation

• Citizens empowerment

• Effective carbon pricing

Task forces

• Energy Think Tank

Theme areas

• Climate financing, risk management and carbon pricing

• Carbon footprint and handprint

• Built environment

• Transportation

• Energy

• Circular economy and

• Consumer cleantech

Contact us

Climate Leadership Council ryc/o SitraItämerenkatu 11-13, FI-00180 HelsinkiFinland

www.clc.fi@CLC_fi

Board 2017H Ehrnrooth (chairman), T Heikkilä, P Lundmark, P Korhonen, M Kosonen (vice chairman), A Randell, T Ritakallio

Board 2018H Ehrnrooth (chairman), P Lundmark, P Korhonen, M Kosonen (vice chairman), R Murto, A Randell, K-H Sundström

Henrik EhrnroothChairman of the Boardtel. +358 50 4442371 peggy.hagberg@poyry.com

Jouni KeronenExecutive Directorp. +358 50 453 4881jouni.keronen@clc.fi

@keronen_j

21J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council, Stormwarning

Thank you!

Photo by Myrskyvaroitus – Stormwarning ry