climate leadershop council, jouni keronen, esitys leadersho… · microsoft powerpoint - climate...
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Ilmasto muuttuu
J Keronen
Ilmasto muuttuu
J Keronen
Lämpöpumppualan huippuseminaari ja näyttelytiistaina 28.11.2017
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41 membersGross sales >100 billion euros
Market cap around 50% of Nasdaq OMX Helsinki
Climate Leadership Council
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Global temperature anomalies
“The warming has exceeded 1.1 C or 1.3 if
the Arctic areas are taken into account.
Economic losses have increased 50 fold
since the 1950’s.
The recent hurricanes have broken single
event records and the trend continues.
Besides economic losses migration, refugee
problems and humanitarian crisis are
matters of concern.”
Petteri Taalas, Secretary-General, World
Meteorological Organization (Zero Emission
Summit, NY, Sept 21, 2017)
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Current policies will lead to +3,6ºC and pledges to +2,8ºC warming
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Zimbabwe has suffered $1.6 billion in damage from its 2016 drought. This is approximately 12% of their GDP. (Image credit:
Ziniyange Auntony/AFP/Getty Images.)
Fiji suffered $470 million in damage from Category 5 Cyclone Winston's impact in February 2016. ~10% of their GDP. (Image credit: My Fijian Images and Jah Ray.)
Vietnam: $6.7 billion damage from its 2016 drought. 4% of Vietnam's GDP (Image credit: STR/AFP/Getty Images)2016
J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council
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J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council
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Roadmap
Leading experts (Rockströmet.al., IEA/IRENA) have illustrated that when limiting warming below +2ºC we have 700-800 GtCO2 budget.
Johan Rockström et al. Science 2017;355:1269-1271
With current emissions levels, around 50 GtCO2/y this budget will be used in about 14–16 years, i.e. around 2032.
COP negotiation process Updated NDCs needed quickly. The role of non-state actors important.
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9
Global changes / Paris climate goals
- The Emissions Gap Report 2017; UN Environment concludes that the remaining carbon budget is 1000 GtCO2e starting from last IPCC report 2011. (This in synch with Rockström et.al., IEA/IRENA estimates (700-800 GtCO2 after 2017) since 2011-2016 emissions have been close 250 GtCO2.)
- A large gap exists between 2030 emission levels and those consistent with least- cost pathways to the 2°C and 1.5°C goals respectively. The 2°C emissions gap for the full implementtion of both the conditional and uncondtional NDCs for 2030 is 11 to 13.5 GtCO2e. The gap in the case of the 1.5°C target is 16 to 19 GtCO2e.
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Global changes / Paris climate goalsThe Emissions Gap Report 2017 estimates a total emission reduction potential in 2030 of 33-38 GtCO2e/year.
Coal is still the biggest emitter and 6,683 coal-fired power plants create around 190 GtCO2e if run until the end of their lifetime. There are also additional 273 GW of coal-fired capacity in construction, and 570 GW in pre-construction (Shearer et al.
2017). If these will also run until the end of their assumed liftemeof 40 years, would lead to emissions of approximately 150 GtCO2e. Coal is close to 50% of the remaining carbon budget.
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• Clear seasonality
• Wind most competitive
• Intermittency needs
daily and seasonalstorages
• Low seasonality
• PV most competitive
• Intermittency needs
daily storages
2017
32,3 €/MWh2017
17,8 €/MWh
Global changes / Solar revolution
In Bonn Nov. 16 it was published that the India-led International Solar Alliance (ISA) plans to add 1,000 gigawatt (GW) of solar power across the globe by 2030 with an investment of nearly 1,200 billion euros. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/environment/the-good-earth/india-led-solar-alliance-to-add-1000gw-of-energy-by-2030/articleshow/61665841.cms
https://www.reuters.com/article/saudi-solar-bids/update-1-uaes-masdar-edf-energies-lead-bidding-for-saudi-solar-plant-idUSL8N1ME43W
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-01/cheaper-solar-in-india-prompts-rethink-for-more-coal-projects
https://electrek.co/2017/11/08/chilean-solar-down-26-as-important-as-saudi-arabia-at-1-79%C2%A2-kwh/
2017
18,2 €/MWh
Utility-scale solar LCOE dropped 86% in the last eight years. Solar is now 50 percent cheaper than new coal power in India.
Wind costs dropped 67%.
2017 2030
Pop. 0.35 billion 0.32 billion
GDP 7,6 $trillion 9.8 $trillion
2017 2030
Pop. 7,12 billion 8,80 billion
GDP 79 $trillion 116 $trillion
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2017-11-29 Place where you are 122017-11-29 Place where you are 12
2017-11-29 Place where you are 12
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We need to transform… … almost everything
J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council
New energy, storages
De/recarbonising industry New materials, active buildings
Sustainable forestry and land useActivating citizens
New agriculture, also C sinks
Changing taxes and financing
ICT, IoT everywhere
New market mechanisms, smart gridNew ”fuels” for transport
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Approx. 70% of GHG emissions are related to household consumption
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The average carbon footprint of the richest 10% is 11 times as high as that of the
poorest half of the population, and 60 times as high as that of the poorest 10%.
The average footprint of the richest 1% of people globally could be 175 times that of
the poorest 10%.
The richest 10% is responsible for almost 50% of CO2 emissions globally
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Citizens have many options in reducing their carbon footprint
…use energy efficient devices…
Choose CO2-free electrity…
..use public transportation whenpossible and when not, switch to lowcarbon vehicles…
… compensateother emissions…
… use renewables…
… revise food portfolio..
…use energy when it is produced in a cleanest way …
..reduce unnecessary
energy use…
Do 2-4 permanent changes / year in 10 period.
… when possible choose lowcarbon product or service…
J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council, Stormwarning Association
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Scalable climate solutions for citizens
Citizens Climate Pledge
100 million by 2020
-0,5-1,75 GtCO2eq/year
(+US$0,5-1,75 billion offsets)
Citizens climate actions
Zero Emission Day
launch NY 2017
>20 cities by 2020
100 smart ways to live sustainably
Finland 2017
X countries by 2020
Offsetting unavoidable emissionss
Climate Neutral Now
Green Button / Ticketmaster
- 100 million users and US$2/event
-> $200 m/y, 200 MtCO2eq/year
Forest restoration
Education
Climate change modules for education
EduCycle game: augmented reality for
planning a sustainable society
Engaging via sports
Save Pond Hockey
Meri-Teijo Golf
CO2 footprint of purchases
Baltic Sea Card / Mastercard
Rewards for low-CO2 purchases
Green Card, Korea / 15 million users
Engaging via events
- Flow Festival
- Indian Dance Festival
- Concerts: J Mraz, Lahti Symphony Orch.
Choice-based CO2 calculator
Climate Diet calculator
Finland 2015 � next EU, NA,
China, India
Inspiring
Interactive climate
theatre
Future Shorelines movie
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CLC: Plan for 2017-2018Core projects
2017
• Climate positive forestry
2018
• Climate neutral transformation of Finland as part of the Nordics
• Energy
• Agriculture
• Transportation
• Citizens empowerment
• Effective carbon pricing
Task forces
• Energy Think Tank
Theme areas
• Climate financing, risk management and carbon pricing
• Carbon footprint and handprint
• Built environment
• Transportation
• Energy
• Circular economy and
• Consumer cleantech
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Contact us
Climate Leadership Council ryc/o SitraItämerenkatu 11-13, FI-00180 HelsinkiFinland
www.clc.fi@CLC_fi
Board 2017H Ehrnrooth (chairman), T Heikkilä, P Lundmark, P Korhonen, M Kosonen (vice chairman), A Randell, T Ritakallio
Board 2018H Ehrnrooth (chairman), P Lundmark, P Korhonen, M Kosonen (vice chairman), R Murto, A Randell, K-H Sundström
Henrik EhrnroothChairman of the Boardtel. +358 50 4442371 [email protected]
Jouni KeronenExecutive Directorp. +358 50 453 [email protected]
@keronen_j
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21J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council, Stormwarning
Thank you!
Photo by Myrskyvaroitus – Stormwarning ry