climate change effects on water resources and aquatic ecosystems
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Climate Change Effects on Water Resources and Aquatic Ecosystems
Paul K. Barten, Ph.D., Professor, University of Massachusetts AmherstAdapting Forested Watersheds to Climate Change – Nat. Inst. of Applied Climate Science
Antioch University, Keene, New Hampshire – April 4, 2017
Climate change?Inter-annual variability?
Land use effects?Forest influences?Relative effects?Signal? Noise?
[Good questions]
Conceptual diagram:Brianne Walsh (Univ. of Maryland),Toni Lynn Morelli (USGS/UMass/NECSC),Paul Barten (UMass)
Wolf River, Menominee Reservation, WI(Satterlund and Adams, 1992)
GCMs forecast warmer, wetterconditions in New EnglandP - ET - Q ±∆S = 0 or Q ≈ P - ET ±∆S
P - (E + T + I) - (QOF + QSSF + QGW) ±∆ (SSNOW + SSOIL + SWETLANDS + SLAKES + SSTREAMS + SBIOMASS) ± L ± ε = 0…terrain, land use, flow routing, energy balance, inter-annual variability of climate
Trees are highly evolved, adaptable organisms—not passive wicks.
Nelson Brook Weir2008 to present
USGS 01174500 EAST BRANCH SWIFT RIVER
NEAR HARDWICK, MA1937 to present
Quabbin Reservoir - April 1989-18.5 ft., 68% of storage capacity
Photo: Clif Read (MA DWSP)
Climate change?Inter-annual variability?
Land use change?Signal? Noise?
[Good questions]
Quabbin ReservoirOctober 196661% CapacityMA DCR Archives
February and March 1967 …45% Capacity
0
20
40
60
80
100
1 13 25 37 49 61 73 85 97 109 121 133
% R
eser
voir
Capa
city
Year
Jan 1963 - Jan 1974
Jan 1984 - Jan 1995
Jan 2013 - Feb 2017
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Paul K. Barten, UMass Amherst
DROUGHT EMERGENCY STAGE 1
DROUGHT WARNING
…2017?
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul1963 1964 1965 1966 19672009 2010 2011 2012 2013M
ean
Mon
thly
Disc
harg
e, ft
3 /se
c Ea
st B
ranc
h Sw
ift R
iver
, Har
dwic
k, M
A
Oct 2009 – Sep 2010
ƩQ (mm) %1964 360 712010 510 -
Dr. Emery BooseSenior Investigator
Information Manager
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16Nelson Brook - Harvard ForestEast Branch Swift River - USGS
Mea
n da
ily d
ischa
rge
(mm
/day
)
1 Oct-30 Nov 2009 7 Apr-7 Jun 2010
P – ET – Q ±ΔS = 0AET ≈ P – Q (water year, ΔS → 0)
Precipitation (P) 1,095 mmWater yield (Q) 510 mm
Est. Actual ET (P-Q) 585 mm
Nelson Brook Q = 509 mmE.B. Swift River Q = 510 mm
r = 0.96
0
50
100
150
200
Oct
Nov De
cJa
nFe
bM
ar Apr
May Jun Jul
Aug
Sep
0
10
20
30
40
50
Inst
anta
neou
s disc
harg
e (li
ters
/sec
ond)
Nelson Brook Weir: 1 October-30 November 2009 …15 minute interval data
0
5
10
15
20
Inst
anta
neou
s disc
harg
e (li
ters
/sec
ond)
Nelson Brook Weir: 7 April-7 June 2010 …15 minute interval data
Atmosphere↑↓
Forest↑↓
Tree↑↓
Leaf↑↓
Stomata↑↓
Xylem & phloem↑↓
Roots↑↓SoilSo
il –
Plan
t –At
mos
pher
e Co
ntin
uum
Trees are highly evolved, adaptable organisms—not passive wicks. Spencer Woodlot
Conway, Mass.
0
5
10
15
20
Inst
anta
neou
s disc
harg
e (li
ters
/sec
ond)
Nelson Brook Weir: 7 April-7 June 2010 …15 minute interval data
0
1
2
3
4 MT MT MT MT MT MT
42 28 49(W/m2)
PAR
336 mmRain
Climate change?Inter-annual variability?
Land use change?Signal? Noise?
[Good questions]
0102030405060708090
12/1/2009 1/1/2010 2/1/2010 3/1/2010 4/1/2010
Snow
Wat
er E
quiv
alen
t (m
m)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
12/1/2009 1/1/2010 2/1/2010 3/1/2010 4/1/2010
Disc
harg
e (m
m/d
ay)
Climate change?Inter-annual variability?
Land use change?Signal? Noise?
[Good questions]
Climate change?Inter-annual variability?
Land use effects?Forest influences?Relative effects?Signal? Noise?
[Good questions]
Civil and Environmental Engineering DepartmentSyracuse University
The interacting hydrologic responses to changing climate, watershed physical characteristics, river regulation, and land development in the northeastern
United States
PhD Dissertation
Rouzbeh BertonMay 2017
Berton, R., C.T. Driscoll, P.K. Barten, and J.L. Campbell. (in preparation) Climate change and land use effects on streamflow discharge and timing.
Sub-watershed % Forest % Developed % Other18 - Shawsheen 17 73 10
19 - Smith 87 4 9
20 - Squannacook 76 10 14
HubbardBrook
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
mm
/day
PET
Est. snowmelt
Ra in
Discharge
a) Smith (ID: 19, forest- average HyC)
F1F2
F3F4
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
mm
/day
PET
Est. snowmelt
Ra in
Discharge
b) Squannacook (ID: 20, suburban- average HyC)
S1 S2 S3
S4 S5
S6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
mm
/day
PET
Est. snowmelt
Ra in
Discharge
c) Shawsheen (ID: 18, urban- average HyC)
U1
U2
U3
U4
U5
U6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
mm
/day
PET
Est. snowmelt
Ra in
Discharge
a) Smith (ID: 19, forest- dry HyC)
F12F13
F14
F15
F20
F18
F17
F16
F19
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
mm
/day
PET
Est. snowmelt
Ra in
Discharge
b) Squannacook (ID: 20, suburban- dry HyC)
S14S15
S16S17 S20S19
S18
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
mm
/day
PET
Est. snowmelt
Ra in
Discharge
c) Shawsheen (ID: 18, urban- dry HyC)
U15
U16
U17
U18U19
U20 U21U22
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
Smith
(ID
: 19,
for
est)
Squannacook (ID: 20, suburban)
a) Cumulative double mass curve (WY 1970, average HyC)1:1
Cumulative discharge (mm)
S1-F1
S2-F2
S3-F3Forestvs
Suburban
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
Smith
(ID
: 19,
fore
st)
Shawsheen (ID: 18, urban)
b) Cumulative double mass curve (WY 1970, average HyC)1:1
Cumulative discharge (mm)
U1-F1
U3-F2
U4-F3
U2-F4
Forestvs
Urban
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
Squa
nnac
ook
(ID
: 20,
sub
urb)
Shawsheen (ID: 18, urban)
c) Cumulative double mass curve (WY 1970, average HyC)1:1
Cumulative discharge (mm)
U1-S1U6-S6
U2-S4
U5-S5
Suburbanvs
Urban
Sub-watershed % Forest % Developed % Other18 - Shawsheen 17 73 1019 - Smith 87 4 920 - Squannacook 76 10 14
Flow regime changes when impervious surfaces >5 to 10%.
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Da
ily d
isch
arg
e (m
m/d
ay)
Exceedence probability (%)
a) Flow duration curve (WY 1970, average HyC)
Smith (ID: 19, forest)Squannacook (ID: 20, suburban)Shawsheen (ID: 18, urban)
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100D
ail
y d
isch
arg
e (
mm
/da
y)
Exceedence probability (%)
c) Flow duration curve (WY 1989, dry HyC)
Smith (ID: 19, forest)Squannacook (ID: 20, suburban)Shawsheen (ID: 18, urban)
On average, as urbanization progresses:high flows get higher and low flows get lower.
Forests help to sustain streamflow during dry years via infiltration,
subsurface flow, and deeper groundwater flow paths.
0
25
50
75
100%
of c
umul
ativ
e an
nual
dis
char
ge a ) Flow distribution curve (WY 1970, average HyC)
Smith (ID: 19, forest)Squannacook (ID: 20, suburban)Shawsheen (ID: 18, urban)
0
25
50
75
100
% o
f cum
ulat
ive
annu
al d
isch
arge
c) Flow distribution curve (WY 1989, dry HyC)
Smith (ID: 19, forest)Squannacook (ID: 20, suburban)Shawsheen (ID: 18, urban)
Forests delay and de-synchronize snowmelt.
Infiltration, subsurface flow, and groundwater flow paths also increase travel times to streams, rivers, lakes, and reservoirs.
2013
Climate changeInter-annual variability
Land use effectsInter-related processes
Complex questions
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