climate change and water making river basin management plans “climate proof” in spain

CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATER

MAKING RIVER BASIN MANAGEMENT PLANS “CLIMATE

PROOF” IN SPAIN

Overview of Spanish Climate Change Adaptation Strategy

Climate change on previous River Basin Management

Planning efforts

Current results on assessment of climate change impact on

water resources

Legal requirements and methodology for making next River

Basin Management Plans “climate proof”

OUTLINE

Aim: Integration of adaptation to climate change into the planning strategy of the different socio-economic sectors and ecological systems in Spain (mainstreaming)

July 2006:Formal approval at CCPCC

Need to evaluate impacts of climate change on water resources within the framework of the National Program of Adaptation to Climate Change in Spain.

SPANISH CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION PLAN

COMUNICATION

PARTICIPATION MONITORING

CAPACITYBUILDING

COORDINATION COMMISSION FOR

POLICIES ON CLIMATE CHANGE (CCPCC)

NATIONAL CLIMATE

COUNCIL (CNC)

Biodiversity

WaterAgriculture

…

Fishing

Health

EnergyTourism Forestry

ASSESSMENT OF SECTORS AND SYSTEMS

ASSESSMENT INCLIMATIC AREAS

…PlateauPyrenees

Mediterranean coastal area

North coastal area

Socioeconomic Conditions

ClimaticConditions

RegionalClimate

Scenarios

Socioeconomic Scenarios

SCENARIOSINTEGRATION (including Regional

Plans)

INTEGRATION (including Regional

Plans)

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION PLAN Coordination: OECC

INTER-MINISTERIAL

GROUP ON CLIMATE CHANGE

(GICC)

River Basin Management Plans approved in 1998 did not

consider the effect of climate change in water resources

The effect of climate change on water resources was

considered for the first time in the elaboration of the

technical documentation for the National Hydrologic Plan

(PHN) in year 2000

PREVIOUS RIVER BASIN MANAGEMENT PLANS

Temperature increase of 1ºC

RUNOFF REDUCTION UNDER CLIMATE SCENARIOS

Temperature increase of 1ºCPrecipitation reduction of 5%

WEAK SCENARIO STRONG SCENARIO

OTHER IMPACT STUDIES

Percentage of runoff

decrease under several

climate scenarios

ASSESSMENT REPORT OF PRELIMINARY IMPACTS IN SPAIN DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE

INCREASED PRESSURES ON WATER RESOURCES

Reduction of natural water resources

Increase of water demands

Increase of human intervention on hydrologic cycle

IMPORTANT EFFECTS ON RELATED SECTORS

Environment, agriculture, tourism, energy or industry

In some cases water resources may be a limiting factor for development

CURRENT STATUS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN WATER RESOURCES

New legislation, RD 907/2007 about River Basin Management

Plans: It is mandatory to consider the effects of the climate

change in the plans

Draft Technical Guide: River Basin Management Plans must

consider water resources under the climate scenarios

foreseen by the Ministry of Enviroment

NEW RIVER BASIN MANAGEMENT PLANS

PRINCIPAL ACTIVITIES WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE

NATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION PLAN

Research about the potential effects of Climate Change in:

Water resources in natural regime Water demand (irrigation, urban supply and industry) Available resources in water distribution systems Ecological status of water bodies

The Spanish Center for Hydrographic Research (CEDEX) is working on it, with the management of the DGA

(Directorate of Water)

INPUT FOR RIVER BASIN MANAGEMENT PLANS

ASSESMENT OF WATER RESOURCES IN NATURAL REGIME

Recent results:

PRUDENCE project

Revision and updating of

former assessments

HYDROLOGY OF REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS

PRUDENCE regional model show very large variability and do not reproduce observed hydrological variables well

USE OF A HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE SIMULATION MODEL:

The SIMPA model was developed by CEDEX and it was used

for the elaboration of the White Paper on Water in Spain

Model boundary conditions: climate scenarios developed by

the National Meteorological Service (INM)

Model results are hydrological monthly time series for all

Spanish river basins (streamflow in rivers, recharge of

groundwater bodies…)

ASSESMENT OF WATER RESOURCES IN NATURAL REGIME

- Rainfall-Runoff model - Global for Spain

- 1 km2 grid - Monthly scale

PRECIPITATION

ACTUAL ET

SURFACE RUNOFF STREAMFLOW

HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE SIMULATION MODEL: SIMPA

Climate change impact assessment on water demand for

different uses

Direct assessment: Development of several models

describing the relationships between climate variables and

water consumption in different sectors

Indirect assessment: Effect of impacts in other sectors on

water demands (population changes, hydropower,…)

Adaptation proposals: demand management, new and more

efficient infrastructures, crops change…

WATER DEMAND (Irrigation, urban supply and industry)

WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT MODEL: AQUATOOL

WATER AVAILABILITY IN WATER RESOURCE SYSTEMS

METHODOLOGY FOR WATER AVAILABILITY ASSESSMENT

Climatic Variables

SIMPA

Monthly Streamflow

Water Availability

AQUATOOL

Water Resources System

Climate

Change

Scenarios

RUNOFF REDUCTION UNDER CLIMATE SCENARIOS

REDUCTION OF NATURAL FLOW REDUCTION OF AVAILABILITY

Evaluation of climate change impact on ecological status of

water bodies is the most difficult activity.

It requires deep knowledge of the species distribution in

lakes, rivers and reservoirs and on the relationship between

them and environmental conditions.

Use of Bioclimatic Envelope Models, BEMs

ECOLOGICAL STATUS OF WATER BODIES