climate and transport challenges and opportunity in latina america

Transforming Transportation

Climate and Transport challenges and opportunity in Latina America

Adriana Lobo

Centro de Transporte Sustentable

de México

January 15, 2010

Global antropogenic GHG emissions

Source: IPCC, 2008

World Carbon Emissions: Transport

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006

MT

on

nes

CO

2

China non-TransportOECD Non TransportRest of World non TransportLat. Am incl Mexico non transportSea and Aviation BunkersChina TransportOECD Transport ex MexicoRest of World TransportLatin Am incl Mexico Transport

Other energy industries*

7%

Manufacturing industries and construction

35%

Road Transport

17%

Other Transport

7%

Residential. Commercial, Agriculture **

34%

World Carbon Emissions: Transport CO2 Emissions for World in

2006 (total 4.3 tonnes/capita)

CO2 Emissions for LAC in 2006 (total 2.5 tonnes/capita)

Motor Vehicle OwnershipHistorical Trend and Projected Growth

for Selected Countries

Source: Vehicle Ownership and Income Growth, World Wide, 1960-2030, Dargay, et al, 2007

Mexico 2008: 24 million vehiclesMexico 2030: 70 million vehicle

Source: MEDEC study, CTS Mexico 2008

Mexico projection of total emission per mode (2009- 2030)

Source: MEDEC study, CTS 2008

The Future for Transport and Emissions

Avoid- Shift- Improve approach:

• Avoiding or reducing the need to travel through improved access to daily needs

• Shifting travel to, or keeping the modal share of the most efficient mode

• Improving existing forms of motorized transport through technological improvements

Sustainable strategy

=Less trips and less distance Higher accecibility to services Higher social equity in mobility Less congestionReduction of C02 from Transport

TRANSPORT EXPENDITURE

DENSE CITIES 5-7 % GDP

DIFFUSE CITIES 15-25 % GDP

LOCAL POLLUTANTS PER INHABITANT

DENSE CITIES 118 Kg.

DIFFUSE CITIES 31 Kg.

¿How to achieve

sustainable mobility?

Mix land use and km travel per capita

Emission of CO2eq per passenger-km

Source: Transport in Developing Countries, International Energy Agency, PEW Center for Global Climate Change

People Mobility

Technology

Opportunities

The Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action Instruments offers an opportunity to levy institutional barriers to support non-regrets policies.

In its structure it must consider enough flexibility as to open the possibility to finance transport policies (modal change, TDM, etc)

Possibility to expand PROTRAM and increase national economic competition by promoting mobility policies.

THANK YOUCentro de Transporte Sustentable

Felipe Carrillo Puerto 54 P.B.,

Col. Villa Coyoacán

México, D.F.   C.P. 04000,

tel. (5255) 3096-5742 al 45

alobo@ctsmexico.org

http://www.ctsmexico.org