chinese oilfield review winter 2000 - schlumberger 2000/p2_9.pdf · 2000/2001 3 [1] npv [2] 6 [3]...
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2
$3
00
,000
$50,0
00
$50
,00
0
$5
0,0
00
Ellen CoopersmithDecision Frameworks
Graham DeanCentrica
Slough
Jason McVean
Erling StorauneAker Maritime
12 18Joe Fay
Kent Burkholder Alexander LythellPaige McCown Slough CentricaPat Parry Aker MaritimeKenneth Ricard Didcot AEA
Laurence Wickens
Decision Tree PeepDPS-2000 Aker Excel
32000/2001
[ 1 ]
NPV
[2]
6
[3] NPV
[4]
1. Newendorp PD: Decision Analysis for PetroleumExploration Aurora PlanningPress 1996
2. Bailey W Couet B Lamb F Simpson G Rose PTaking a Calculated Risk
12 3 2000 20-35
3.
4. Newendorp 1 4
> 6NPV
>
Newendorp 1
, %
51
31
09
05
03
01
30,000
31,538
36,068
42,083
41,776
42,862
43,643
45,010 60,000
59,937
57,873
54,004
50,956
50,157
46,181
_ $50,000
2+ $100,000
5+ $250,000
$0
+ $100,0000. 7
0. 1
0. 2A
B
4
$0
5010% 20
20% 70%
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
HSE
PalisadePrecision Tree ADA
DPL
M e r a kDecision Tree
ExcelMerak Peep
Peep
[5]
>
Newendorp 1
52000/2001
>
1-2 Newendorp 1
AkerMaritime Aker Maritime
[6]
Aker MaritimeD e c i s i o n
FrameworksDecision Frameworks
MerakPeep
5. Beck GF Examination of MWD Measuring WhileDrilling Wireline Replacement by Decision AnalysisMethods Two Case Studies SPLWA 37
1996 6 16 19 U
Martinsen R Kjelstadli RM Ross C Rostad H TheValhall Waterflood Evaluation Decision AnalysisCase Study SPE38926 SPE
San Antonio1997 10 5-8
Macary S El-Haddad A Decision Trees OptimizeWorkover Program 96 51
1998 12 21 93-97 100
MacDonald JJ Smith RS Decision Trees ClarifyNovel Technology Applications 95
8 1997 2 24 69-71 74-76
6.
B
C
A
IH
GF
J
DE
+ $3 6 M M + $1 1 M M+ $3 5 M M
+ $10 MM
$0
+ $3 3 M M
+ $8 MM
,
— $7 MM— $6 MM
+ $3 4 M M
+ $9 MM
0.90
0.05 0.05
0.075
0.075
0.85
0.50
0.50
0.15
0 .1 5
0.700.20
0.200.60
,
— $5 MM
—$5 MM
— $4 MM
— $5 MM
6
> Aker Maritime
Decision Frameworks Aker
DPS-2000
FPSO
4
72000/2001
> Aker Maritime DPS-2000
>
4
8
> DPS-2000 NPV
>4 NPV
NPV 2.3
>
18
•
•
•
DPS-2000NPV
4.12DPS-2000 NPV
2001 12005 6
FEED
2005
2003
Aker Maritime
0.48
0.36
0.16
882
NPV $MM
359
9
0.23
0.46
0.31
882
361
12
0.23
0.36
0.41
882
361
14
2
2
2
DPS-2000
DPS-2000
DPS-2000
p =0.2
8p = 0.39
p =0.33
DPS-2000
$412 MM
DPS-2000
$ 554 MM
$ 373 MM
$ 339 MM
26 $100 M
14 1
6 2
14
6 1
14
6
26 , $100 M
26 $100 M
2001 2001 2002 2002 2003 2003 2004 2004 2005 2005 2006
Aker DPS-2000
FPSO
2 0 0 3 1 2
2 0 0 3 8
2 0 0 5 2
2 0 0 5 4
F EED
DPS-2000 $412 MM
$350 MM FPSO
$313 MM
$182 MM
9
Hewet t
2000/2001
> Hewett CentricaDecision Tree Centrica
> Hewett Centrica
1
CentricaUK
Centrica
Centrica
HewettCentrica
Centrica
Centrica AEA
7000
Centrica Merak
5007
Merak
LS
Ye s
No
Ye s
NoA
B
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