changing climate in the midwest

Changing Climate in the Midwest

Dennis TodeyDirector, Midwest Climate Hub

National Laboratory for Agriculture and the Environment1015 N. University Blvd

Ames, Iowa 50011515-294-2013

Dennis.todey@ars.usda.gov

…not just temperature and precipitation

Regional Climate Hubs are providing Information and Tools to Decision Makers to Build Resilience to climate variability.

The Climate Hubs

Midwest Climate Hub

Topics

• Basic climatology• Climate change drivers• Climate changes in the region• Impacts/Projections• A little about this season (time permitting)

Climate• Climate Variability is not going away– El Nino-Southern Oscillation (El Nino/La Nina cycle)

will continue to be a factor on North American climate in the future• Although there is not a strong correlation for South Dakota

– It is abnormal to be normal… even though the “normals” have changed, rarely are conditions ever normal

– Cycles of wet and dry, hot and cold, will continue on interannual to decadal scales

7http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/

http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/

Greenhouse warmingCarbon dioxide (CO2)Water (H2O)Ozone (O3)Methane (CH4)Chloro-florocarbons (CFCs)Nitrous oxide (N2O)

http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/

CLIMATE CHANGES IMPACTING AGRICULTURE

http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/

http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/

http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/

The frost-free season length, defined as the period between the last occurrence of 32°F in the spring and the first occurrence of 32°F in the fall, has increased in each U.S. region during 1991-2012 relative to 1901-1960. Increases in frost-free season length correspond to similar increases in growing season length. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC).

Longer growing seasonEarlier spring (confounded)Later fall

• More in larger events

• Still have smaller events

• Erosion, effective precip, etc.

http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/

http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/

Hardiness Zone Changes

https://www.arborday.org/media/mapchanges.cfm

State and Regional T and P Trends

• http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/us • Check out your locations• Variabilities in seasons and trends• Based on ~120 years of data

Summer and Fall biggest increases in Ohio

Other seasons less overall change

Winter Spring

Summer AutumnTemperature

Summer and Fall biggest increases in Ohio

Other seasons less overall change

Winter Spring

Summer AutumnPrecipitation

Summer temperature increase mostly in overnight lows

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag

Increasing Moisture in the Atmosphere

Thanks to Deke Arndt and Chris Fenimore (NOAA-NCEI)

Increasing Moisture in the Atmosphere

• Complicated issues– Warmer nights/not as warm days– Still high heat index and stressful conditions-little

evening relief– Changing disease potential– Adds to livestock stresses

Changes

• Complex – not just overall warming• Precipitation changes• Changes during year• Max/min• Locational

Climate Change: Abiotic

• Rising temperature– Increasing growing season lengths

• Greater variability of temperature– Higher night time lows– Extreme swings over short time periods– Periods of extreme heat, cold– Timing of frost events

Abiotic Impacts

Animal stress

IR-30 Rice Response to Temperature

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4

8

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20 25 30 35 40 45Mean Temperature, C

Bio

mas

s or

Yie

ld, M

g/ha

Biomass-330Biomass-660Yield-330Yield-660

Plant stress: yield

Pollinators?

Erosion

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-50

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Accumulated Degree Days >41F January 1 to Budbreak

Western New York Yield Variation bu/acreabove/below Average Poor

Pollination Year

Western New York Region Apple Yields

Pollination

Water qualityAir quality Food quality

Access to fieldsPlanting datesSoil temperature

Water

Too much, too fast?

Drought

Ground water & soil moisture recharge??

Beneficial Impacts: Biotic

2000199019801970196019501940-30

-20

-10

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Year

Coldest WinterLowTemp ÞF

Geneva Weather Data

Critical TempVine Damage

Increased concentrations of phenolic compounds

Biotic Impacts• Changing habitats• Enhanced CO2 fertilization

Weeds, vines, invasive plantsInsectsPathogensAnimals

Herbicide effectiveness??

Cheatgrass fire hazard?

Nutrient poor forage?

C:N ratio + lodging?

FUTURE CHANGES

http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/

http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/

http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/

http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/

http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/

http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/

www.AgClimate4U.org

Choice of Cycle

OUTLOOK 2017A little bit about this year…

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought/

• Drought conditions have eased in CA and southeast– increasing some Midwest

• Watch southeast IA – dryness on par with 1988 there.

Modeled Soil MoistureNational Land Data Assimilation System

www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/nldas/drought/

Pacific SST Anomalies

Cold SSTs disappearing – end of La Niña in sight

Outlooks – What can you use?

• El Niño/La Niña – SSTs in general• Computer models• Trends

• Current conditions – for potential impacts

ENSO Probabilistic Forecast

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/

• Weak La Niña continues• Expected to transition to ENSO neutral by February

Seasonal Outlook for Mar-April-MayNWS Climate Predication Center

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1

Computer models

Two computer model summaries• Both lean slightly dry into summer

(MJJ)• Not a great amount of skill• Something we should continue to

watch

Summary• La Niña is disappearing – little impact on

growing season with small chance El Niño• Summer likely leans a little warm, Overall

trend – low temperatures• Will have to watch computer model

development on dryness• No other major issues appearing in Corn Belt

Where to go for information?

Keeping Up-to-Date with the Midwest Climate Hub

Visit the Climate Hubs Websitewww.usda.gov/climatehubs

**Get on the Midwest Climate Hub Email list

Midwest and Great Plains Climate-Drought Outlook15 September 2016

Virga near Huron SD – Author Photo

Photo taken Feb 19, 2013

https://www.drought.gov/drought/dews/midwest/reports-assessments-and-outlooks

For more Information on the Midwest Climate Hub

Charlene Felkley, Coordinator515-294-0136

Charlene.felkley@ars.usda.gov

Dennis Todey, Director515-294-2013

Dennis.todey@ars.usda.gov

Erica Kristner, Fellow515-294-9602

Erica.kristner@ars.usda.gov

National Laboratory for Agriculture and the EnvironmentAttn: Midwest Climate Hub

1015 N University BlvdAmes, Iowa 50011-3611

Midwest Climate Hub

@dennistodey

The Need for Climate Hubs

• Increasing climate variability• An increase in number and intensity of

extreme events • Changing trends in climate and weather• Added stress that to agriculture and the

natural resources

The More you Know…Information Leads to Action

Midwest Climate Hub:Vulnerabilities in the Midwest

Link actionable information and users together to protect and enhance the natural resources of soil, water, and air.

Integrate information to deliver solutions to producers through a variety of outlets

Vision and Mission of Climate Hubs

VisionAgricultural production and natural resources maintained and

strengthened under increasing climate and environmental change

Mission1. Develop and deliver science-based, region-specific information and

technologies to agricultural and natural resource managers;2. enable climate-smart decision-making; and 3. direct land managers to USDA agency programs and regional partners to

build resilience to climate change.

Midwest Climate Hub:Objectives

1. Assemble research information on crop and livestock production systems across the Midwest to determine their response to weather and climate variation;

2. Assemble research information on soil and water resources of the Midwest to determine the natural resource response to weather and climate variation;

3. Conduct stakeholder meetings with different commodity groups to gather information on their potential use of weather and climate information in agricultural decision making;

4. Partner with research, education and extension to develop strategies for the identification of adaptation tools and delivery of information to producers and agribusiness across the Midwest; and

5. Provide information to producers which will increase climate resilience of agricultural systems across the Midwest.

Midwest Climate Hub:Partners

• NRCS• FSA• APHIS• RMA• NCAR/NOAA• NASA• Ag Expt Stations• Cooperative Extension Service• Crop Consultants• Commodity organizations • Soil and Water Conservation Districts• …And Many Others

Midwest Climate Hub:Increasing the efficiency of Information Flow

Midwest Climate Hub

Federal Partners (

NOAA,

DOI, NASA, D

OE)

USDA Intramural & Extramural

Research

(ARS/FS/ERS/NRCS/NIFA)

USDA Se

rvice

Agency

Partners

(NRCS,

RD, FSA

)Agricultural Experiment

Stations

Cooperative

Extension & eXtension

USDA Research

Agencies

Servi

ce age

ncy progra

ms & st

aff

State Climatologists