central florida leadership survey hispanic summit 2007
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Central Florida Leadership SurveyHispanic Summit 2007
May 29-June 3, 2007
2
Central Florida Leadership Survey
Sample of 702 respondents taken from a population of registered voters Base sample of 502 registered voters. supplemented by over-
sample of 200 Hispanic voters Final results weighted to reflect the known percentage of registered
voters with Hispanic surnames
Interviews conducted May 29-June 3, 2007
Typical interview was about 10 minutes
Sampling error of ±3.7% for results based on full sample of 702 ± 4.5% for Anglo subsample, n=481 ± 6.5% for Hispanic subsample, n=217
3
Key findings
Although Hispanics seeking the American Dream in Central Florida think of discrimination as a problem, they are less likely than Hispanics in the rest of nation to feel victimized by discrimination.
Hispanics and Anglos agree that today’s immigrants posses strong family values and work hard at jobs other Americans don’t want, but they disagree over the assimilation of immigrants into society and extent of social problems caused by immigration. Healthcare and education impacts are flash-points.
Older Anglos are most pessimistic about immigration while younger female Anglos are most optimistic.
The status quo in legal immigration policies is preferred. Solid majorities of both Hispanics and Anglos endorse a path to
permanent legal status for illegal immigrants. Neither political party is seen as offering better immigration
policies.
4
WHO are the Hispanics of
Central Florida, and HOW are they doing?
5
Most reside in Orange, metro Orlando area
PercentageTOTAL 100%Orange 44Seminole 16Osceola 14Lake 2Volusia 11Polk 7Brevard 6
MetroOrlando
76%
6
Most hail from Puerto Rico,but Mexico is soaring
PercentageTOTAL 100%Puerto Rico 44Mexico 13South America 10Caribbean 9Cuba 8Central America 8Europe 5Other/refused 3
7
No opinion4%
Latino10%
Hispanic 16%
No preference
70%
Note: percentages do not add up to 100% due to rounding.
No preference for ethnic terminology
Which term do you prefer, Hispanic or Latino?
8
Hispanics skew much younger than Anglos
Hispanics Years of age Anglos
100% TOTAL 100%
41 18 - 34 18
9 35 - 39 5
21 40 – 49 20
15 50 - 59 20
8 60 – 69 19
6 70 or older 18
41 yrs MEAN 53 yrs
+23 points over Anglos
Two or three times more than Hispanics
9
Hispanics are much newer voters
Hispanics YEARSREGISTERED
Anglos
56% Under 5 32%
31 5 to 12 31
13 Over 12 37
+ 24 points vs. Anglos
+ 24 pointsvs. Hispanics
10
Independence from any party
Hispanics Anglos
22% Republican 46%
39 Democrat 33
39 Independent 21
- 24 points under Anglos
+ 18 points over Anglos
11
Parity at top of socio-economic ladder, but Hispanics crowd lower rung
Hispanics Income + education
Anglos
50% Low 36%
24 Medium 35
26 High 29
+14 points more than
Anglos
Parity
12
Discrimination thought a genuine obstacleHispanic responses only
Minor problem
34%
No opinion2%
Major problem
34%
Yes68%
Think discrimination is a problem preventing Hispanics from succeeding in America?
Note: percentages do not add up to 100% due to rounding.
No31%
13
Hispanics vs. Anglos: Different realities
67%
39%31%
51%
Hispanic Anglo
Yes Not a problem
Think discrimination is a problem preventing Hispanics from succeeding in America?
Even Anglos who accept the reality of discrimination think of
it as a minor, not a major, problem
(10% major; 29% minor)
14
Central Florida Hispanics perceive less discrimination than do all U.S. Hispanics
Minor problem
34%
No opinion2%
Major problem
34%
Yes68%
Think discrimination is a problem preventing Hispanics from succeeding in America?
Note: percentages do not add up to 100% due to rounding.
No31%
Pew Hispanic Center6/5 – 7/3, 2006 2,000 nationwideHispanic adults
US/Pew: 15%
US/Pew: 58%
US/Pew: 24%
US/Pew: 82%
15
Ultimately, Hispanic optimism triumphs
35%
40%
48%
31%
18%
29%
Hispanic
Anglo
Right direction Wrong track Unsure
Direction things are headed in your part of Florida?
Note: percentages do not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Anglos are +17 points more
pessimistic than Hispanics
16
The problem of immigration,
and perceptions of
immigrants
17
Concern over illegal immigration is widespread and intense
All respondents
Somewhat concerned
30%
Very concerned
49%
Not too concerned
13%
Not at all concerned
8%
Concerned79%
18
54%
39%
29%
27%
11%
16%
5%
18%Hispanic
Anglo
Very Somewhat Not too Not at all
Anglo worries outpace Hispanic
How concerned are you about illegal immigration?
Anglos are +15 points more
“very” concerned than Hispanics
19
Conservative, senior Anglos worry most(% “very concerned,” selected categories of Anglos)
20
But most Anglos acknowledgethat Latin American immigrants...
94% 94% 90%74% 76%
60%
Work very hard Have strong familyvalues
Mostly take jobsAmericans don't want
Hispanic AngloPercentage “Yes” shown
21
Central FL opinions roughly match national sentiment about key jobs issue
Note: Percentages do not add up to 100% due to rounding.
US/NYT: 30%
US/NYT: 12%
US/NYT: 59%
New York Times (NYT) Poll: 5/18 – 5/23, 2007
1,125 adults in U.S.
22
What worries central Florida Anglos most
today about immigrationand immigrants?
23
Anglos especially don’t perceive assimilation like in years pastPerceived willingness of immigrants to adapt to
American way of life, compared to those in early 1900s
~6:1 margin is stark and troubling
24
Many Anglos are nervous about immigrants’ social impact
26%
61%
35%39%
23%
45%
Often end up onwelfare?
Do very well inschool?
Significantlyincrease crime?
Hispanic Anglo
Latin American immigrants...?
Percentage “Yes” shown
25
Most Anglos (and many Hispanics) say hospitals, schools are besieged
Latin American immigrants overburden local hospitals & school districts?
52%
34%
28%
56%
Hispanic
Anglo
Yes No
Note: “Unsure” and “refused” not shown
26
Most Anglos and plurality of Hispanics want quicker adoption of English
Think most recent immigrants learn English within a reasonable amount of
time?
Note: “Unsure” and “refused” not shown
27
Central FL opinions roughly match national
Note: Percentages do not add up to 100% due to rounding.
US/ NYT: 31%
US/NYT: 7%
US/NYT: 62%
New York Times (NYT) Poll: 5/18 – 5/23, 2007
1,125 adults in U.S.
Think most recent immigrants learn English within a reasonable amount of
time?
28
Hispanics are satisfied (Anglos less so) with ESL programs
Effectiveness of public school ESL courses teaching English?
16%
45%
33%
26%
17%
15%
13%
8%
Hispanic
Anglo
Very Somewhat Not very Not at all
Note: “Unsure” and “refused” responses are not shown; many Anglos are unsure re: ESL courses
29
Bottom line is positive for Hispanics, a muddle for Anglos
Point-of-view closest to your own: Immigrants today “strengthen the country” vs. “are a burden”?
34%
73%
39%
16%
13%
5%
Hispanic
Anglo
Strengthens country Burden Both
Note: “Unsure” and “refused” not shown
30
What do Central Floridians want to do on key “hot-button”
immigration issues?•Visas and legal immigration
•In-state college tuition•Amending constitution for “birthright”
citizenship•Border Security
•Amnesty
31
Status quo on legal immigration is plurality preference, but as many Hispanics want boost
Hispanics: 34%
Hispanics: 34%
Hispanics: 18%
Anglos: 43%
Anglos: 27%
Anglos: 19%
Note: percentages do not add up to 100% due to rounding.
US/NYT: 35%
US/NYT: 20%
US/NYT: 39%
New York Times (NYT) Poll: 5/18 – 5/23, 2007
1,125 adults in U.S.
Legal immigration should be...?
32
Support for holding steady with current levels of HB1 visas
Level of temporary, high-skilled worker visas should be...?
Hispanics: 42% Anglos: 13%
Anglos: 50%
Anglos: 27%
Hispanics: 41%
Hispanics: 10%
33
On the surface, a balance of opinion about in-state tuition for children of illegals ....
Yes49%
No opinion6%
No45%
Illegals who graduate from FL high schools should be given in-state college tuition
rates?
34
... but topline numbers mask deep ethnic divisions
Illegals who graduate from FL high schools should be given in-state college tuition rates?
43%
72%
52%
19%
Hispanic
Anglo
Yes No
Note: “Unsure” and “refused” not shown
- 29 point difference
35
Hispanics united, Anglos divided on birthright citizenship
Amend Constitution so parents mustbe legal residents for newborn to be
citizen?
Note: “Unsure” and “refused” not shown
36
Anglos most in “favor” of amending constitution to limit citizenship
Conservatives, retirees, Republicans, males
56%53%53%
52%51%50%50%50%50%
48%48%
47%46%
Conservative
Retired
Male 50+ yrs
GOP
40-59 yrs
Female 50+ yrs
More than $70K
60+ yrs
High SES
Male
Some college
Moderate
TOTAL
37
Anglos most opposed to amending constitution to limit citizenship
Liberals, young, low-income, Democrats
69%61%
58%58%57%57%
53%52%51%
49%49%48%
Liberal
18-39 yrs
$30K or less
Democratic
Female 18-49 yrs
Male 18-49 yrs
Full-time employed
$31K-$70K
Medium SES
College graduate
Male
TOTAL
38
Most Anglos and many Hispanicsare ready to spend more on border security
To prevent illegal immigration, government should...?
65%
32%
11%
25%
17%
34%
Hispanic
Anglo
Spend more Spend less Spend about the same
Note: “Unsure” and “refused” not shown
39
Solid majorities of Hispanics and Anglos endorse a path to permanent legal status
Illegals currently in U.S. should be allowed to...?
27%
7%
11%
14%
56%
78%
Hispanic
Anglo
Deport all Work for limited time Remain, become citizens
Note: “Unsure” and “refused” not shown
40
Taking all issues into account, which central
Florida Anglos are most and least favorable to
immigrants and immigration?
41
Multi-item scale of attitudes toward immigration points to young Anglo females as best friend of immigrants
50%
45%
45%
37%
36%
36%
35%
31%
Female 18-49 yrs
18-39 yrs
Liberal
Independent; other party
$31K-$70K
More than $70K
High SES
TOTAL
Select categories of highest scale scores, Anglos only
42
Multi-item scale of attitudes toward immigration identifies retirees as least friendly to immigrants
40%
38%
37%
34%
33%
27%
Retired
Male 50+ yrs
Conservative
High school or less
Low SES
TOTAL
Select categories of lowest scale scores, Anglos only
43
Neither political party is seen as having the “best position” on immigration
Hispanics: 35%
Hispanics: 16%Hispanics: 17%
Anglos: 24%Anglos: 28%
Anglos: 26%
Note: percentages do not add up to 100% due to rounding.
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