calgary real estate market · shoes/jewellery general merchandise sporting goods ... digital...

Dalan Bronson

November 2006

Calgary Real Estate Market

2

Agenda

Calgary and Alberta metrics vs. the rest of CanadaWhat’s happening in retail today?

3

Unemployment Rate – Sept. 2006

3.6%

8.1%

5.7%

7.3%

4.3%4.7%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

Calgary Montreal Ottawa Toronto Edmonton Vancouver

Source: Statistics Canada

4

Index Growth Median Family Income

100

105

110

115

120

125

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Montreal Ottawa Toronto Calgary Edmonton Vancouver

Source: Statistics Canada

5

Average and Median Debt

58,441

42,297

63,579

74,860

55,155

29,000

38,50037,000

21,600

40,000

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

Alberta Quebec Ontario B.C. Canada

Average Median

Source: Statistics Canada

6

Retail Sales Growth YTD 2006/2005

17.7%

5.1% 4.6%

7.6% 7.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

Alberta Quebec Ontario B.C. Canada

Source: Statistics Canada

7

Retail Sales Growth

6.3%5.1% 5.0%

6.2%

16.7%

12.3%12.9%

7.6%

17.3%

4.7%4.7%4.2%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

Calgary Montreal Ottawa Toronto Edmonton Vancouver

2005/2004 YTD 2006/2005

Source: Statistics Canada, Kubas ConsultantsNote: YTD 2006 = June

8

Retail Sales (in billions)

15.0

27.9

60.4

10.9

42.1

18.4 17.5

30.1

63.2

11.4

43.9

21.4

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

Calgary Montreal Ottawa Toronto Edmonton Vancouver

2005 2006 Est.

Source: Statistics Canada, Kubas Consultants

9

Retail Sales Growth Q2 2006/2005

-2.0%

3.0%

8.0%

13.0%

18.0%

23.0%

28.0%

33.0%

Alberta Quebec Ontario B.C. Canada

Furniture Home Furnishings Home CentresSupermarkets Pharmacies ClothingShoes/Jewellery General Merchandise Sporting GoodsEating and Drinking

Source: Statistics Canada

10

Household Expenditure – % of Total Consumption

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

Calgary Montreal Ottawa Toronto Edmonton Vancouver

Food Shelter Furnishings ClothingTransportation Recreation Tobacco/Alcohol

Source: Statistics Canada

11

Streetfront Vacancy

0.3%

1.8%

3.7%

2.2%

3.7%

0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%

2002 2003 2004 2005 Q3 2006

12

The Changing World

Demographic changes Aging populationChanging family make-upEthnic trendsTime pressuresChanging shopping habitsConsumer attitude adjustment

13

Changing Retail Scene

Department storesWal-MartDollar storesPower centresBlurring of retail categoriesMulti-channel

14

Blurring of Retail Categories

Retailers are moving into new categories:– Wal-Mart (grocery/fast food/services)– Loblaws (drugs/HBA/banking/gas stations)– Shoppers Drug Mart (convenience store)

Becoming more of a: – one-stop offering– solutions provider

Meeting needs of time-starved consumersBut…added confusion?

15

The Real Canadian Superstore

16

PC Housewares

17

Chico’s – for the Aging Boomer

18

Experience Based

19

Personalized and Customized

Trading Up, Trading Down

21

Coach

22

Whole Foods

23

Permission to Indulge

24

Costco

Tailored to my Needs –Format Specific and Cultural Trends

26

Neighborhood Market

27

LuLu Lemon – PR Event

28

Best Buy

29

Best Buy “Jill” Concept

30

Best Buy “Ray” Concept

31

Best Buy

32

The New Apple Store

33

Apple

34

Cross-channel Influence is Significant(% of customers that looked for or purchased something previously seen in another channel)

Ονλινε

Base:Visited storesVisited WebsiteReceived catalogue

26%

Store Catalogue

26%

39%

68%

25%

22%

VisitBuy

BuyVisit

Example:68% of all online customers who received a catalogue, first shopped the catalogue then bought online

Source: The Multi-channel Retail Report, J.C. Williams Group, BizRate.com, Shop.org

35

The Retail Lifecycle

Sales & Profit Growth

Emerging Growth Maturity Decline

Home Delivery

Dollar Stores

Drug Stores

Department Stores

Supercenters

Supermarkets

Automated Shopping

Discount Stores

Digital Download

E-commerce

Hypermarkets

Furniture Stores

Home Improvement

C-Stores

Gen. Merch.Quick

Casual Rest.

Fast Food

Music Retailers

Teen Specialty Retailers

Office Superstores

Toy Superstores

Lifestyle Retailers

Wholesale Clubs

Variety StoresPersonalization/ Customization

Hard Discount

The Retail Shop.Toronto, Chicago, Montrealwww.jcwg.com(416) 921-4181Dalan Bronsondbronson@jcwg.com

Thank you and keep in touch.