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Budućnost opskrbe energijom

Frano Barbir

Associate Director: UNIDO-International Centre for Hydrogen Energy Technologies, Istanbul, Turkey

Profesor: Fakultet elektrotehnike, strojarstva i brodogradnje, Split

energy partners

Prof.dr.sc. Frano Barbir

Uvjeti održivostiZašto trebamo energiju?Energija – pokretač ekonomijeDa li je sadašnji sustav opskrbe energijom održiv? Zašto?Alternative sadašnjem sustavu opskrbe energijom (racionalnokorištenje, obnovljivi izvori energije, nuklearna energija, …)Da li pojedinac, selo, grad, država, svijet, mogu zadovoljiti svojeenergetske potrebe iz obnovljivih izvora energije? Tehnologija korištenja obnovljivih izvora energijeSprega obnovljivih izvora energije, električne energije i vodikaDa li korištenje obnovljivih izvora energije vodi održivom razvoju? Pod kojim uvjetima?Razlika izmedju održivog rasta i održivog razvojaDa li je kapitalizam održiv? Zašto?Mogući scenariji (rast, “steady state” “quasi-steady-state”, prosperitetni pad, katastrofalni pad)Mjere za energetsku politiku održivog razvojaŠto pojedinac može učiniti?

"Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs" World Commission on Environment and Development

"Sustainability refers to the ability of a society, ecosystem, or any such ongoing system to continue functioning into the indefinite future without being forced into decline through exhaustion . . . of key resources." Robert Gilman, President of Context Institute.

The concept of sustainability („Nachhaltigkeit“) was created by the Prussian forest administration in the late 18th century :„Never take more wood out of a forest than can re-grow between two harvesting periods“

Definitions of SustainabilityDefinitions of Sustainability

With respect to energy there are two sustainability conditions: „Never use more energy than nature can provide“„Never create more energy waste than nature can absorb“

Kod kuće-Za komfort (toplinu, hladnoću)-Za kuhanje-Za pokretanje različitih aparata-Svjetlo

Transport-Kretanje, putovanje

U industriji-U industrijskim procesima-Grijanje-Pokretanje strojeva

Što je energija?

Zašto trebamo energiju?

Koliko energije trebamo dnevno?

Mjere energije:1 JouleMJ = 106 J = 1.000.000 JGJ = 109 J = 1.000.000.000 JEJ = 1018 J = 1000.000.000.000.000.000 J

Energija u odredjenom vremenuna pr. EJ/godinu ili GJ/dan

1 toe = 41.686 GJkWh = 3.6 MJ

Svijet: 1.6 toe/godinu po osobi = 5.5 lit benzina/dan = 2.1 kWHrvatska: 1.8 toe/godinu po osobi = 6.2 lit benzina/dan = 2.4 kWU.S.A.: 8 toe/godinu po osobi = 28 lit benzina/dan = 10.5 kW

Jedinica snage: W1 W = 1 J/s1 kW = 1000 W1kW = 1 kWh/h

1 lit benzina = 33 MJ

Koliko energije trebamo dnevno?

Druge mjere/jedinice energije: kWh (električna) toe (ton of oil equivalent)

electricity

natural gas

petroleum products

coal

natural gas

Energy (Energy (EmergyEmergy) diagram for the U.S.) diagram for the U.S.

energysources Nature’s

work

used energy

unusedenergy

non-renewablesources

Assets

economicproduction

exports

imports

$GNP

Aggregate energy diagram of a stateAggregate energy diagram of a state

Emergy flow (8 + 32 + 23 + 15)x1023 seJ/yrMoney flow 5.4x1012 $/yr = 1.44x1012 seJ/$=

8

32

23 fuels+15 goods & services

Problems with current energy system:

Economic: Ever growing energy demand and imminent gap between demand and supply

Physical: Depletion of finite fossil fuels reserves

Environmental: Local, regional and global environmental problems

Geo-political: Most of oil&gas reserves concentrated inpolitically volatile area

foss

il fu

els

oxygen

fossilfuel

reservesenvironment

useful energy

com

bust

ion

water

pollutants

2water

CO2

foss

il fu

els

oxygen

fossilfuel

reservesenvironment

useful energy

com

bust

ion

water

pollutants

2water

CO2

Present Energy System is Unsustainable

System perspectiveSystem perspective

NonNon--renewable energy sourcerenewable energy source

Exponential growth, peak,followed by decline!

Diagram

Ak1

.F.A

k2.F.A

k3.Ak4

.F.A

F

Equations:

dA/dt = k1.F.A − k2

.F.A − k3.A

dF/dt = −k4.F.A

Results

time

asse

ts, f

uels

A

F

What does a mini-model teach us:

Postoji li alternativno rješenje?Koji izvori energije su odrzivi?

Obnovljivi izvori energije:Solarno zračenje i njegove posljedice: biomasa, vjetar, hidro

Wind Energy and Solar (PV) installations are growing at a rate of ~30%/yr

Wind electricity is already competitive (cost below $1000/kW)

www.wwindea.org

Inst

alle

d C

apac

ity in

the

Wor

ld (M

W)

Solar (PV) not quite there yet!

www.nrel.gov/ncpv

Postoji li alternativno rjesenje?Koji izvori energije su odrzivi?

Obnovljivi izvori energijeSolarno zracenje i njegove posljedice: biomasa, vjetar, hidro

Problemi sa obnovljivim izvorima energije:

•Variraju u intenzitetu•Uglavnom su raspoloživi dalje od mjesta potrošnje•Ne mogu se koristiti u transportu

Rjesenje: Vodik!

Može se proizvesti iz bilo kojih izvora energijeMože se proizvesti centralno i lokalnoDugoročno, posebno je interesantna sprega vodika saobnovljivim izvorima energijeMože se skladištitiMože se koristiti u svim primjenama umjesto sadašnjih fosilnihgorivaProizvodnja vodika (iz obnovljivih izvora energije) i njegovokorištenje nisu štetni za okolišGorivne ćelije – nova tehnologija koja omogućuje proizvodnjuelektrične energije sa visokim stupnjem iskoristivostiTrajni energetski sustav bez obzira na izvore energije

VodikVodik gorivogorivo budubuduććnostinostiwater

primaryenergy sources

energyconsuming

sectors

transportation

commercial industrial

electricity generation

energycarrier

water

H2H22

primaryenergy sources

energyconsuming

sectors

residentialwater

primaryenergy sources

primaryenergy sources

energyconsuming

sectors

energyconsuming

sectors

transportation

commercial industrial

electricity generation

energycarrier

water

H2H22H2H2H22

primaryenergy sources

energyconsuming

sectors

residential

VodikovaVodikova ekonomijaekonomija!!

SvakiSvaki proizvodaproizvodačč automobilaautomobila jeje vevećć demonstriraodemonstriraoprototipniprototipni automobilautomobil nana pogonpogon gorivnimgorivnim ććelijamaelijama

Clean Urban Transportation for EuropeClean Urban Transportation for Europe

Više od milijun kilometara napravljeno!

BicikleBicikle i i skuteriskuteri –– ogromnoogromno trzistetrziste

U U svijetusvijetu vevećć postojipostoji stotinjakstotinjak pumpnihpumpnih stanicastanica zaza vodikvodik!!

Hydrogen Demonstration Project Atlas

Vodik i obnovljivi izvori energije

Vodik se moze proizvesti iz obnovljivih izvora energijeJedino u sprezi sa obnovljivim izvorima energije vodik rezultira u

sustavu koji omogućuje održivi razvojVodik rješava problem stohastičke prirode obnovljivih izvora energijeVodik omogućuje penetraciju obnovljivih izvora energije u sektor

transportaKorištenjem vodika može se smanjiti uvoz nafte i plinaKorištenjem vodika iz obnovljivih izvora energije bi se smanjilo

zagadjenje okoliša i emisije stakleničkih plinovaVodik i električna energija se nadopunjuju

A Sustainable Energy System

hydr

ogen

water

water

oxygen

oxygen

environment

useful energy

hydr

ogen

utili

zatio

n

hydrogen

production

hydr

ogen

water

water

oxygen

oxygen

environment

hydr

ogen

utili

zatio

n

hydrogen

production

electricity

productionrenewableenergysources

renewableenergysources

elec

trici

ty

System perspectiveSystem perspective

Constant flow energy sourceConstant flow energy sourceDiagram

AJk1

.R.A

k2.R.A

k3.AR k4

.R.A

Equations:

dA/dt = k1.R.A − k2

.R.A − k3.A

R = J/(1+k4.A)

Results

time

asse

tsExponential growth,followed by steady state!

What does a mini-model teach us:

source

load

source

load

~=

~=

~=

=~

=~

==

==

==

DC Loads

AC Loads

ThermalLoads

==

==

solar-thermalsystem

PV-panel

windturbine

electrolyzer

fuel cellH2 storage

battery

catalyticcombustor

refuelingstation

hydrogenvehicles

Mini Hydrogen EconomyMini Hydrogen Economy

reverseosmosis

sea-water

water foragriculture

Solar energy on 1/10th of world deserts: 2,500 EJ*World wind energy potential: 30 EJ*World hydro potential: 30 EJ*World energy demand (2000): 400 EJ**U.S. energy demand: 100 EJ**U.S. oil consumption: 40 EJU.S. electricity generation: 3840 TWh (13.7 EJ)U.S. renewable energy “production”: 6 EJ

A: Yes, we do have technologies to harvest it.A: Yes, there is enough renewable energy.

Sun, wind, hydro, biomass …

Q: Can we use renewable energy? Is there enough?

*electrical energy generation potential**total primary energy demand

1 EJ = 1018 J ≅ 1 Quad

Sources: A Realizable Renewable Energy Future, Science Magazine, July 30, 1999J.M Ogden and R. H Williams, Solar Hydrogen: Moving Beyond Fossil Fuels,World Resources Institute, October 1989

Solar EnergySolar Energy

Area required to produce H2 from solar energy to replace U.S. oil consumption

Area needed to supply allelectricity in U.S. (100x100 mi.)

Površina koju bi bilo potrebno prekriti sa fotonaponskim uredjajima za proizvestisvu energiju potrebnu u Hrvatskoj

What is the problem with renewables?So, why don’t we switch?

Net emergy is high!

Fossil fuels Useful energy

High quality feedback

Net emergy is low?!Renewables

Useful energy

High quality feedback

Can the economy be maintained at a certain (hopefully high level) on renewable energy? Or is the “way down” unavoidable? Can we make a “prosperous way down”?

Fossil fuels enabled tremendous growth of economy!

This growth would have been impossible if it was based on renewable energy

Sustainable growth is impossible on limited resources!

Is introduction renewable energy (with hydrogen) going to help or hurt?

What are the alternatives to growth:Steady state FallPulsing

Some thoughts and questions on sustainable development and renewable energy

1860

2005

Fossil Fuel Era – A Short Interlude Between Solar Energy Past and Solar Energy Future?

Different Scenarios

Wor

ld E

nerg

y C

onsu

mpt

ion

Renewable and nonRenewable and non--renewable energy sourcesrenewable energy sources

Exponential growth, peak,followed by decline, followedby steady state!

Diagram

A

k1.R.A

k3.R.A

k7.A

k4.F.AF

J

R

k2.R.A

k5.F.A

k6.F.A

time

asse

ts, f

uels

A

F

time

asse

ts, f

uels

A

F

Assets

FossilFuels

Solar

CO2

Global Energy ModelGlobal Energy Model

Assets

Pollution

Modeling Results: Modeling Results: The effects of renewable hydrogen introduction

The results of techno-economic analysis and simulation performed atUniversity of Miami (1992); updates (2006)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

Gro

ss W

orld

Pro

duct

(tril

lion

U.S

.$)

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

CO

2 in

atm

osph

ere

(ppm

)

Gross World Product (2004 U.S.$)

CO2 in the atmosphere (ppm)

business as usual

renewable H2

business as usual

renewable H2

Modeling Results: Modeling Results: The effects of timing

The results of techno-economic analysis and simulation performed atUniversity of Miami (1992); updates (2006)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

Gro

ss W

orld

Pro

duct

(tril

lion

U.S

.$)

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

CO

2 in

atm

osph

ere

(ppm

)

Gross World Product (2004 U.S.$)

CO2 in the atmosphere (ppm)H2 in 2000

no H2

H2 in 2025

H2 in 2000

no H2

H2 in 2025

The results of techno-economic analysis and simulation performed atUniversity of Miami (1992); updates (2006)

Modeling Results: Modeling Results: The effects of cost ratio

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

Gro

ss W

orld

Pro

duct

(tril

lion

U.S

.$)

CR = 1.33

CR = 2.0

CR = 3.0

CR = 4.0baseline

Gross World Product (2004 U.S.$)

There should be no competition – there should be transition

Transition requires vision and commitmentTransition will take many yearsNeed to start somewhereWe must concentrate on technologies/applications

that do make sense now!•(islands, remote areas, developing countries)

How do we change the entire energy system?How do we change the entire energy system?

Local vs. globalDeveloped vs. developingUNIDO-ICHETNeed for global government World Hydrogen Energy Summit (2008)

• U.S. has a hydrogen program• Europe has a hydrogen program• Japan has a hydrogen program• Activities in China, Korea, India, Malaysia, Brazil, Turkey

Why doesn’t World Bank have a dedicated hydrogen program?

Some Thoughts on Transition to Hydrogen EconomySome Thoughts on Transition to Hydrogen Economy

wood

coal

oil

natural gas

hydrogen

hydr

ogen

cont

ent

Industrial revolution

Automobile revolution

Information revolution

Energy revolution

Electricity revolution

Evolution of modern civilizationEvolution of modern civilization

The Alternative to a Hydrogen FutureThe Alternative to a Hydrogen Future

Postoje li druga rješenja osim tehnoloških?

Stvarna jednakost u bogatstvu.Nije sve isto ako većina bogatstva pripada malom broju ljudi ili je pravednijeraspodjeljeno.

Trka za maksimiranjem novca bi se trebala zamijeniti etikom maksimalneem-snage

Jednakost u medjunarodnoj trgovini

Edukacija

Socijalne mjere (zapošljavanje, zdravstvena briga…)

Zaustavljanje rasta stanovništva

energysources Nature’s

work

used energy

unusedenergy

non-renewablesources

Assets

economicproduction

exports

imports

$GNP

Emergy flow (8 + 32 + 23 + 15)x1023 seJ/yrMoney flow 5.4x1012 $/yr = 1.44x1012 seJ/$=

8

32

23 fuels+15 goods & services

Za vrijeme ekspanzije:rast je progres

Sada:održivost je dobra

Održivi rast je fizički nemoguć! (bez neograničenih količina energije)

U ekonomiji koja stagnira ili se smanjuje: manje, efikasnije, suradnja

Vrijednosti u društvu se mijenjaju!

U ekonomiji koja raste: veće, brže, kompeticija

Što pojedinac može napraviti?

Biti svjestan posljedica “potrošačkog mentaliteta”

Biti svjestan da dijelimo jedan planet i njegove resurse

Smanjiti vlastiti ekološki trag (Ecological Footprinting)

Tvoj novac ili tvoj život (Your Money or Your Life – YMOYL)

Učiti od prirode

Ecological footprinting

Ekološki trag je površina bioproduktivne zemlje (uključujuci i morsku površinu)potrebna za zadovoljenje potreba pojedinca.

Prosječni ekološki trag je 1.9 hektara

Obradiva zemljaPašnjaciŠumeMorska površina*Izgradjeno

3.181.625.160.840.6

Vrsta površine

*samo uski pojas uz obalu je uzet u obzir (8% ukupne povrsine) u kojem se ulovi 95% ribe

miljardihektara

2.20.51.32.20.4

faktorproduktivnosti

biokapacitethektara/osobi

0.530.270.860.140.10

1.90

Ecological footprinting je alat koji moze kvantificirati održivost

Održivost se može postići samo onda kada čovječanstvo uzima odglobalne bio-produkcije manje nego se ona stvara.

Koliki je naš ekološki trag?

Zadatak za “case study”?

Hrana 2.2Stanovanje 2.1Transport 1.8Stvari i usluge 3.5Ukupno 9.6 hektara

Koliki je ekološki trag prosječnog Amerikanca?

Ecological footprinting

Prosječni ekološki trag je 1.9 hektara

ZakljuZaključčcici

Promjena k obnovljivim izvorima energije će zahtijevati bitnupromjenu u našem načinu razmišljanja i načinu zivota

promjenu s ciljeva neprestanog rasta k ciljevima obnovljivog razvojaštedjeti energiju i druge resurseprioritizirati zaštitu okoliša

Ova promjena mora biti koordinirana na globalnoj raziniPotrebne su detaljnije analize energije (emergije) o korisnosti

obnovljivih izvora energijeČovječanstvo ima priliku odrediti svoju budućnostPostiziva odrziva razina će ovisiti o:

Zakonima termodinamikeSnazi, originalnosti i opsegu naseg djelovanjaTajmingu

Nadam se da nam je budućnost blistava!

Howard T. Odum and Elisabeth C. Odum,

A Prosperous Way Down: Principles and Policies,

University Press of Colorado, 2001

(ISBN: 0870816101)

Jim Merkel Radical Simplicity, (sustainable lifestyle for global equity) (small footprints on a finite Earth)New Society Publishers, 2003 (ISBN: 0865714738)

Preporučena literatura

Ideje za “case studies”:

Izračunaj “individual ecological footprint”Izračunaj koliko je naša grupa potrošila energije za ovu radionicuVizija održivog sela (otoka)Vizija održivog gradaAuto/brod na solarni pogonAuto/brod na pogon vodikom (vodik proizveden iz solarne energije)

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