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Budućnost opskrbe energijom
Frano Barbir
Associate Director: UNIDO-International Centre for Hydrogen Energy Technologies, Istanbul, Turkey
Profesor: Fakultet elektrotehnike, strojarstva i brodogradnje, Split
energy partners
Prof.dr.sc. Frano Barbir
Uvjeti održivostiZašto trebamo energiju?Energija – pokretač ekonomijeDa li je sadašnji sustav opskrbe energijom održiv? Zašto?Alternative sadašnjem sustavu opskrbe energijom (racionalnokorištenje, obnovljivi izvori energije, nuklearna energija, …)Da li pojedinac, selo, grad, država, svijet, mogu zadovoljiti svojeenergetske potrebe iz obnovljivih izvora energije? Tehnologija korištenja obnovljivih izvora energijeSprega obnovljivih izvora energije, električne energije i vodikaDa li korištenje obnovljivih izvora energije vodi održivom razvoju? Pod kojim uvjetima?Razlika izmedju održivog rasta i održivog razvojaDa li je kapitalizam održiv? Zašto?Mogući scenariji (rast, “steady state” “quasi-steady-state”, prosperitetni pad, katastrofalni pad)Mjere za energetsku politiku održivog razvojaŠto pojedinac može učiniti?
"Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs" World Commission on Environment and Development
"Sustainability refers to the ability of a society, ecosystem, or any such ongoing system to continue functioning into the indefinite future without being forced into decline through exhaustion . . . of key resources." Robert Gilman, President of Context Institute.
The concept of sustainability („Nachhaltigkeit“) was created by the Prussian forest administration in the late 18th century :„Never take more wood out of a forest than can re-grow between two harvesting periods“
Definitions of SustainabilityDefinitions of Sustainability
With respect to energy there are two sustainability conditions: „Never use more energy than nature can provide“„Never create more energy waste than nature can absorb“
Kod kuće-Za komfort (toplinu, hladnoću)-Za kuhanje-Za pokretanje različitih aparata-Svjetlo
Transport-Kretanje, putovanje
U industriji-U industrijskim procesima-Grijanje-Pokretanje strojeva
Što je energija?
Zašto trebamo energiju?
Koliko energije trebamo dnevno?
Mjere energije:1 JouleMJ = 106 J = 1.000.000 JGJ = 109 J = 1.000.000.000 JEJ = 1018 J = 1000.000.000.000.000.000 J
Energija u odredjenom vremenuna pr. EJ/godinu ili GJ/dan
1 toe = 41.686 GJkWh = 3.6 MJ
Svijet: 1.6 toe/godinu po osobi = 5.5 lit benzina/dan = 2.1 kWHrvatska: 1.8 toe/godinu po osobi = 6.2 lit benzina/dan = 2.4 kWU.S.A.: 8 toe/godinu po osobi = 28 lit benzina/dan = 10.5 kW
Jedinica snage: W1 W = 1 J/s1 kW = 1000 W1kW = 1 kWh/h
1 lit benzina = 33 MJ
Koliko energije trebamo dnevno?
Druge mjere/jedinice energije: kWh (električna) toe (ton of oil equivalent)
electricity
natural gas
petroleum products
coal
natural gas
Energy (Energy (EmergyEmergy) diagram for the U.S.) diagram for the U.S.
energysources Nature’s
work
used energy
unusedenergy
non-renewablesources
Assets
economicproduction
exports
imports
$GNP
Aggregate energy diagram of a stateAggregate energy diagram of a state
Emergy flow (8 + 32 + 23 + 15)x1023 seJ/yrMoney flow 5.4x1012 $/yr = 1.44x1012 seJ/$=
8
32
23 fuels+15 goods & services
Problems with current energy system:
Economic: Ever growing energy demand and imminent gap between demand and supply
Physical: Depletion of finite fossil fuels reserves
Environmental: Local, regional and global environmental problems
Geo-political: Most of oil&gas reserves concentrated inpolitically volatile area
foss
il fu
els
oxygen
fossilfuel
reservesenvironment
useful energy
com
bust
ion
water
pollutants
2water
CO2
foss
il fu
els
oxygen
fossilfuel
reservesenvironment
useful energy
com
bust
ion
water
pollutants
2water
CO2
Present Energy System is Unsustainable
System perspectiveSystem perspective
NonNon--renewable energy sourcerenewable energy source
Exponential growth, peak,followed by decline!
Diagram
Ak1
.F.A
k2.F.A
k3.Ak4
.F.A
F
Equations:
dA/dt = k1.F.A − k2
.F.A − k3.A
dF/dt = −k4.F.A
Results
time
asse
ts, f
uels
A
F
What does a mini-model teach us:
Postoji li alternativno rješenje?Koji izvori energije su odrzivi?
Obnovljivi izvori energije:Solarno zračenje i njegove posljedice: biomasa, vjetar, hidro
Wind Energy and Solar (PV) installations are growing at a rate of ~30%/yr
Wind electricity is already competitive (cost below $1000/kW)
www.wwindea.org
Inst
alle
d C
apac
ity in
the
Wor
ld (M
W)
Solar (PV) not quite there yet!
www.nrel.gov/ncpv
Postoji li alternativno rjesenje?Koji izvori energije su odrzivi?
Obnovljivi izvori energijeSolarno zracenje i njegove posljedice: biomasa, vjetar, hidro
Problemi sa obnovljivim izvorima energije:
•Variraju u intenzitetu•Uglavnom su raspoloživi dalje od mjesta potrošnje•Ne mogu se koristiti u transportu
Rjesenje: Vodik!
Može se proizvesti iz bilo kojih izvora energijeMože se proizvesti centralno i lokalnoDugoročno, posebno je interesantna sprega vodika saobnovljivim izvorima energijeMože se skladištitiMože se koristiti u svim primjenama umjesto sadašnjih fosilnihgorivaProizvodnja vodika (iz obnovljivih izvora energije) i njegovokorištenje nisu štetni za okolišGorivne ćelije – nova tehnologija koja omogućuje proizvodnjuelektrične energije sa visokim stupnjem iskoristivostiTrajni energetski sustav bez obzira na izvore energije
VodikVodik gorivogorivo budubuduććnostinostiwater
primaryenergy sources
energyconsuming
sectors
transportation
commercial industrial
electricity generation
energycarrier
water
H2H22
primaryenergy sources
energyconsuming
sectors
residentialwater
primaryenergy sources
primaryenergy sources
energyconsuming
sectors
energyconsuming
sectors
transportation
commercial industrial
electricity generation
energycarrier
water
H2H22H2H2H22
primaryenergy sources
energyconsuming
sectors
residential
VodikovaVodikova ekonomijaekonomija!!
SvakiSvaki proizvodaproizvodačč automobilaautomobila jeje vevećć demonstriraodemonstriraoprototipniprototipni automobilautomobil nana pogonpogon gorivnimgorivnim ććelijamaelijama
Clean Urban Transportation for EuropeClean Urban Transportation for Europe
Više od milijun kilometara napravljeno!
BicikleBicikle i i skuteriskuteri –– ogromnoogromno trzistetrziste
U U svijetusvijetu vevećć postojipostoji stotinjakstotinjak pumpnihpumpnih stanicastanica zaza vodikvodik!!
Hydrogen Demonstration Project Atlas
Vodik i obnovljivi izvori energije
Vodik se moze proizvesti iz obnovljivih izvora energijeJedino u sprezi sa obnovljivim izvorima energije vodik rezultira u
sustavu koji omogućuje održivi razvojVodik rješava problem stohastičke prirode obnovljivih izvora energijeVodik omogućuje penetraciju obnovljivih izvora energije u sektor
transportaKorištenjem vodika može se smanjiti uvoz nafte i plinaKorištenjem vodika iz obnovljivih izvora energije bi se smanjilo
zagadjenje okoliša i emisije stakleničkih plinovaVodik i električna energija se nadopunjuju
A Sustainable Energy System
hydr
ogen
water
water
oxygen
oxygen
environment
useful energy
hydr
ogen
utili
zatio
n
hydrogen
production
hydr
ogen
water
water
oxygen
oxygen
environment
hydr
ogen
utili
zatio
n
hydrogen
production
electricity
productionrenewableenergysources
renewableenergysources
elec
trici
ty
System perspectiveSystem perspective
Constant flow energy sourceConstant flow energy sourceDiagram
AJk1
.R.A
k2.R.A
k3.AR k4
.R.A
Equations:
dA/dt = k1.R.A − k2
.R.A − k3.A
R = J/(1+k4.A)
Results
time
asse
tsExponential growth,followed by steady state!
What does a mini-model teach us:
source
load
source
load
~=
~=
~=
=~
=~
==
==
==
DC Loads
AC Loads
ThermalLoads
==
==
solar-thermalsystem
PV-panel
windturbine
electrolyzer
fuel cellH2 storage
battery
catalyticcombustor
refuelingstation
hydrogenvehicles
Mini Hydrogen EconomyMini Hydrogen Economy
reverseosmosis
sea-water
water foragriculture
Solar energy on 1/10th of world deserts: 2,500 EJ*World wind energy potential: 30 EJ*World hydro potential: 30 EJ*World energy demand (2000): 400 EJ**U.S. energy demand: 100 EJ**U.S. oil consumption: 40 EJU.S. electricity generation: 3840 TWh (13.7 EJ)U.S. renewable energy “production”: 6 EJ
A: Yes, we do have technologies to harvest it.A: Yes, there is enough renewable energy.
Sun, wind, hydro, biomass …
Q: Can we use renewable energy? Is there enough?
*electrical energy generation potential**total primary energy demand
1 EJ = 1018 J ≅ 1 Quad
Sources: A Realizable Renewable Energy Future, Science Magazine, July 30, 1999J.M Ogden and R. H Williams, Solar Hydrogen: Moving Beyond Fossil Fuels,World Resources Institute, October 1989
Solar EnergySolar Energy
Area required to produce H2 from solar energy to replace U.S. oil consumption
Area needed to supply allelectricity in U.S. (100x100 mi.)
Površina koju bi bilo potrebno prekriti sa fotonaponskim uredjajima za proizvestisvu energiju potrebnu u Hrvatskoj
What is the problem with renewables?So, why don’t we switch?
Net emergy is high!
Fossil fuels Useful energy
High quality feedback
Net emergy is low?!Renewables
Useful energy
High quality feedback
Can the economy be maintained at a certain (hopefully high level) on renewable energy? Or is the “way down” unavoidable? Can we make a “prosperous way down”?
Fossil fuels enabled tremendous growth of economy!
This growth would have been impossible if it was based on renewable energy
Sustainable growth is impossible on limited resources!
Is introduction renewable energy (with hydrogen) going to help or hurt?
What are the alternatives to growth:Steady state FallPulsing
Some thoughts and questions on sustainable development and renewable energy
1860
2005
Fossil Fuel Era – A Short Interlude Between Solar Energy Past and Solar Energy Future?
Different Scenarios
Wor
ld E
nerg
y C
onsu
mpt
ion
Renewable and nonRenewable and non--renewable energy sourcesrenewable energy sources
Exponential growth, peak,followed by decline, followedby steady state!
Diagram
A
k1.R.A
k3.R.A
k7.A
k4.F.AF
J
R
k2.R.A
k5.F.A
k6.F.A
time
asse
ts, f
uels
A
F
time
asse
ts, f
uels
A
F
Assets
FossilFuels
Solar
CO2
Global Energy ModelGlobal Energy Model
Assets
Pollution
Modeling Results: Modeling Results: The effects of renewable hydrogen introduction
The results of techno-economic analysis and simulation performed atUniversity of Miami (1992); updates (2006)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100
Gro
ss W
orld
Pro
duct
(tril
lion
U.S
.$)
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100
CO
2 in
atm
osph
ere
(ppm
)
Gross World Product (2004 U.S.$)
CO2 in the atmosphere (ppm)
business as usual
renewable H2
business as usual
renewable H2
Modeling Results: Modeling Results: The effects of timing
The results of techno-economic analysis and simulation performed atUniversity of Miami (1992); updates (2006)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100
Gro
ss W
orld
Pro
duct
(tril
lion
U.S
.$)
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100
CO
2 in
atm
osph
ere
(ppm
)
Gross World Product (2004 U.S.$)
CO2 in the atmosphere (ppm)H2 in 2000
no H2
H2 in 2025
H2 in 2000
no H2
H2 in 2025
The results of techno-economic analysis and simulation performed atUniversity of Miami (1992); updates (2006)
Modeling Results: Modeling Results: The effects of cost ratio
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100
Gro
ss W
orld
Pro
duct
(tril
lion
U.S
.$)
CR = 1.33
CR = 2.0
CR = 3.0
CR = 4.0baseline
Gross World Product (2004 U.S.$)
There should be no competition – there should be transition
Transition requires vision and commitmentTransition will take many yearsNeed to start somewhereWe must concentrate on technologies/applications
that do make sense now!•(islands, remote areas, developing countries)
How do we change the entire energy system?How do we change the entire energy system?
Local vs. globalDeveloped vs. developingUNIDO-ICHETNeed for global government World Hydrogen Energy Summit (2008)
• U.S. has a hydrogen program• Europe has a hydrogen program• Japan has a hydrogen program• Activities in China, Korea, India, Malaysia, Brazil, Turkey
Why doesn’t World Bank have a dedicated hydrogen program?
Some Thoughts on Transition to Hydrogen EconomySome Thoughts on Transition to Hydrogen Economy
wood
coal
oil
natural gas
hydrogen
hydr
ogen
cont
ent
Industrial revolution
Automobile revolution
Information revolution
Energy revolution
Electricity revolution
Evolution of modern civilizationEvolution of modern civilization
The Alternative to a Hydrogen FutureThe Alternative to a Hydrogen Future
Postoje li druga rješenja osim tehnoloških?
Stvarna jednakost u bogatstvu.Nije sve isto ako većina bogatstva pripada malom broju ljudi ili je pravednijeraspodjeljeno.
Trka za maksimiranjem novca bi se trebala zamijeniti etikom maksimalneem-snage
Jednakost u medjunarodnoj trgovini
Edukacija
Socijalne mjere (zapošljavanje, zdravstvena briga…)
Zaustavljanje rasta stanovništva
energysources Nature’s
work
used energy
unusedenergy
non-renewablesources
Assets
economicproduction
exports
imports
$GNP
Emergy flow (8 + 32 + 23 + 15)x1023 seJ/yrMoney flow 5.4x1012 $/yr = 1.44x1012 seJ/$=
8
32
23 fuels+15 goods & services
Za vrijeme ekspanzije:rast je progres
Sada:održivost je dobra
Održivi rast je fizički nemoguć! (bez neograničenih količina energije)
U ekonomiji koja stagnira ili se smanjuje: manje, efikasnije, suradnja
Vrijednosti u društvu se mijenjaju!
U ekonomiji koja raste: veće, brže, kompeticija
Što pojedinac može napraviti?
Biti svjestan posljedica “potrošačkog mentaliteta”
Biti svjestan da dijelimo jedan planet i njegove resurse
Smanjiti vlastiti ekološki trag (Ecological Footprinting)
Tvoj novac ili tvoj život (Your Money or Your Life – YMOYL)
Učiti od prirode
Ecological footprinting
Ekološki trag je površina bioproduktivne zemlje (uključujuci i morsku površinu)potrebna za zadovoljenje potreba pojedinca.
Prosječni ekološki trag je 1.9 hektara
Obradiva zemljaPašnjaciŠumeMorska površina*Izgradjeno
3.181.625.160.840.6
Vrsta površine
*samo uski pojas uz obalu je uzet u obzir (8% ukupne povrsine) u kojem se ulovi 95% ribe
miljardihektara
2.20.51.32.20.4
faktorproduktivnosti
biokapacitethektara/osobi
0.530.270.860.140.10
1.90
Ecological footprinting je alat koji moze kvantificirati održivost
Održivost se može postići samo onda kada čovječanstvo uzima odglobalne bio-produkcije manje nego se ona stvara.
Koliki je naš ekološki trag?
Zadatak za “case study”?
Hrana 2.2Stanovanje 2.1Transport 1.8Stvari i usluge 3.5Ukupno 9.6 hektara
Koliki je ekološki trag prosječnog Amerikanca?
Ecological footprinting
Prosječni ekološki trag je 1.9 hektara
ZakljuZaključčcici
Promjena k obnovljivim izvorima energije će zahtijevati bitnupromjenu u našem načinu razmišljanja i načinu zivota
promjenu s ciljeva neprestanog rasta k ciljevima obnovljivog razvojaštedjeti energiju i druge resurseprioritizirati zaštitu okoliša
Ova promjena mora biti koordinirana na globalnoj raziniPotrebne su detaljnije analize energije (emergije) o korisnosti
obnovljivih izvora energijeČovječanstvo ima priliku odrediti svoju budućnostPostiziva odrziva razina će ovisiti o:
Zakonima termodinamikeSnazi, originalnosti i opsegu naseg djelovanjaTajmingu
Nadam se da nam je budućnost blistava!
Howard T. Odum and Elisabeth C. Odum,
A Prosperous Way Down: Principles and Policies,
University Press of Colorado, 2001
(ISBN: 0870816101)
Jim Merkel Radical Simplicity, (sustainable lifestyle for global equity) (small footprints on a finite Earth)New Society Publishers, 2003 (ISBN: 0865714738)
Preporučena literatura
Ideje za “case studies”:
Izračunaj “individual ecological footprint”Izračunaj koliko je naša grupa potrošila energije za ovu radionicuVizija održivog sela (otoka)Vizija održivog gradaAuto/brod na solarni pogonAuto/brod na pogon vodikom (vodik proizveden iz solarne energije)