brooks severe weather climate change
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Harold E. BrooksHazardous Weather Forecasts & Warnings
Severe Weather and Climate Change
2Currently, ~$10B damage in US annually
3
Can’t say anything about observed changes
Can’t say much about future changes
4
Non-tornadic Severe Storm Reports
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Year
Act
ivity
Reports
5
Why NSSL?
• Expertise developing…– report-based climatologies– ingredients-based approaches to forecasting
• Honest broker
6
Apply Forecasting Approach
• Look for ingredients in environments• Difficult to observe all ingredients
Low-levelflow
Mid-to-high level flow
7
Ingredients Severe Storms Estimate
8
Observed Severe Storms Locations
9
Ingredients Severe Storms Estimate
10
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Year
Act
ivity
Ingredients Estimate of Severe Storm Reports
11
Non-tornadic Severe Storm Reports
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Year
Act
ivity
Ingredients Estimate of Severe Storm Reports
Reports
Ingredients
12
1980-1999
2080-2099
Severe Storms from Climate Model
What about initiation?
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