Harold E. BrooksHazardous Weather Forecasts & Warnings

Severe Weather and Climate Change

2Currently, ~$10B damage in US annually

3

Can’t say anything about observed changes

Can’t say much about future changes

4

Non-tornadic Severe Storm Reports

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Year

Act

ivity

Reports

5

Why NSSL?

• Expertise developing…– report-based climatologies– ingredients-based approaches to forecasting

• Honest broker

6

Apply Forecasting Approach

• Look for ingredients in environments• Difficult to observe all ingredients

Low-levelflow

Mid-to-high level flow

7

Ingredients Severe Storms Estimate

8

Observed Severe Storms Locations

9

Ingredients Severe Storms Estimate

10

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Year

Act

ivity

Ingredients Estimate of Severe Storm Reports

11

Non-tornadic Severe Storm Reports

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Year

Act

ivity

Ingredients Estimate of Severe Storm Reports

Reports

Ingredients

12

1980-1999

2080-2099

Severe Storms from Climate Model

What about initiation?