broad market potential jim young...

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InSupportof200GMMFEthernetPMDs

BroadMarketPotentialEconomicFeasibility

JimYoung(CommScope)

NGMMFStudyGroupGeneva,January2018

NG 200G & 400G PHYs over fewer MMF Pairs Study Group Jan 22, 2018

2NG 200G & 400G PHYs over fewer MMF Pairs Study Group Jan 22, 2018

ContributorsJohnKamino OFSDaleMurray LightCounting

SupportersDerekCassidy ICRG/IETCarlRombolo WellsFargoMichaelTeal CBAEarlParsons CommScopePaulKolesar CommScopeDavidPiehler DellRichardMellitz SamtechPaulNeveux SuperiorEssexMabud Choudhury OFS

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Similarlogicappliesto200GMMFasitdidforSMF

Insupportofa500mobjectiveFor200GEthernet

Welch,Palkert,MurrayIEEE50GNGOATH3/2/2016http://www.ieee802.org/3/50G/public/Mar16/welch_50GE_NGOATH_03b_0316.pdf

200G-SR1.n/?BroadMarketPotential• Multimodeisasignificantshareofthemarket

• 40GDuplex(1-pair)linksareaconsiderableandgrowingvolumecomparedtoother40Gsolutions.100G1-pairlinksareexpectedtofollow.

• ExtendstheprimarilyDuplexenterprisetopology

• Offerscostadvantage

• 200G-SR1.nfitswellintheenterprise40G-100Gevolutionofduplexswitchinterconnects,naturallyfollowingtheserverspeedevolutionfrom10Gto25Gand50G

• Potentiallyprovideserverconnectivity(multi-serverchassis),wellbeforeindividualserversreach200G

NG 200G & 400G PHYs over fewer MMF Pairs Study Group Jan 22, 2018

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MMFremainsalargemarketthrough2024

Insupportofa500mobjectiveFor200GEthernetWelch,Palkert,MurrayIEEE50GNGOATH3/2/2016http://www.ieee802.org/3/50G/public/Mar16/welch_50GE_NGOATH_03b_0316.pdf

LightCountingFeb2016data

NG 200G & 400G PHYs over fewer MMF Pairs Study Group Jan 22, 2018

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HigherSpeedMMFshareoutlook

DatafromLightCounting

NG 200G & 400G PHYs over fewer MMF Pairs Study Group Jan 22, 2018

• Enterprisemarkets• PODtopologies• Reachincreasing

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BroadMarketPotentialforMMFDuplex

• Until 40GbE, all multimode Ethernet modules were duplex

• SR4 configuration helped launch the 40GbE market

• Duplex MMF still a desired solution, quickly reaching 38% of the 40GbE MMF market in 2017

NG 200G & 400G PHYs over fewer MMF Pairs Study Group Jan 22, 2018

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BroadMarketPotentialforMMFDuplex

At 100GbE:

• SR4 configuration again helped launch the market

- SR10 never widely deployed

• Duplex MMF still a desired solution

- Projecting a 27% share of the 100GbE MMF market by 2022

NG 200G & 400G PHYs over fewer MMF Pairs Study Group Jan 22, 2018

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MMFDuplexforNext-GenSpeeds• ParallelandDuplexMMFmodulesserveessentiallytwodifferentbutcomplimentarymarkets

• LightCountinghasdocumentedsolidsuccessofMMFDuplexat40GbE

• LightCountingisforecastingsimilarsuccessforMMFDuplexat100GbE

• Thereisnoreasontobelievethiswon’trepeatat200GbE,oreven400GbE- Itwouldbeamoredifficultcasetoarguetheduplexmarketwillgoawayatfasterspeeds.

NG 200G & 400G PHYs over fewer MMF Pairs Study Group Jan 22, 2018

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40G/100GApplicationsMultimodeFiberMaximumreachbasedonStandards,MSAsand/orvendorspecifications

OM3 100 mOM4/OM5 150 m

40G

100G

Standard # fibers maximum distance

40GBASE-SR4 (8)

OM3 100 mOM4 150 m

40G-BiDi (2)

OM3 300 mOM4/OM5 400 m

40GBASE-eSR4 (8)

40G-SWDM4 (2)OM5 440 m

OM3 240 mOM4 350 m

OM3 100 mOM4/OM5 150 m

OM3 70 mOM4/OM5 100 m

100GBASE-SR4 (8)

100GBASE-SR10 (20)

OM3 200 mOM4/OM5 300 m

100GBASE-eSR4 (8)

OM5 150 m

100G-SWDM4 (2) OM3 75 mOM4 100 m

OM5 200 m

Bold = standardized; regular = extended reach (super standard); green = WDM

eSWDM additionalreach

NG 200G & 400G PHYs over fewer MMF Pairs Study Group Jan 22, 2018

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EnterpriseEvolutionGeneration Server

RateUp-linkRate

1 10G 40G->100G2 25G 200G3 50G 400G

• Large Enterprise L-S switch links migrating from 10G Duplex (port groups)

• MMF cabling infrastructure can serve at least three generations using 1-pair connectivity

• Server speeds will increase in the shorter term, 200G will help maintain contention ratios

• Continuing 1-pair infrastructure lowers the cost of upgrade – stated preference of several Enterprise operators

Server Server

Leaf Switch

(Q)SFP

SFP SFP

Spine Switch

QSFP

QSFP

1-pair MMF cabling

Server

SFP

Server

SFP

40G → 100G → 200GBiDi or SWDM4

10G → 25G →50G

NG 200G & 400G PHYs over fewer MMF Pairs Study Group Jan 22, 2018

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PhysicalLayercostrelationship

NG 200G & 400G PHYs over fewer MMF Pairs Study Group Jan 22, 2018

Datasource–industryinterviews,colleaguesandindustryexperts

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40Gopticmodulescostcomparison- Largevolumemarketcustomerreportslate2017

NG 200G & 400G PHYs over fewer MMF Pairs Study Group Jan 22, 2018

Datasource–industryinterviews,colleaguesandindustryexperts

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100GOpticModulecostcomparison- Largevolumemarketcustomerreportslate2017

NG 200G & 400G PHYs over fewer MMF Pairs Study Group Jan 22, 2018

Datasource–industryinterviews,colleaguesandindustryexperts

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ShortReachlinkmodelexamples

• Channelstructuresmayrequiretwoormoreconcatenatedlinks

• TRx :Passivecomponentcostratiohaschanged

• PrimarilyTRx hasdecreased

• moreconnectivity=highercablecosts• onecablelinkshowslowest

TRx :Cablecostratio

NG 200G & 400G PHYs over fewer MMF Pairs Study Group Jan 22, 2018

http://www.ieee802.org/3/cd/public/Nov16/traverso_3cd_01_1116.pdf

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Relativelinkcostsfor100GApplications

• Linkcostincludes2XTransceivers1Trunk,2Cordsand2for8f

• Parallel:Duplex Connectorcosts1.7– 2.1X

• MM:SMperfibermeter2.3-3.1

DuplexCord DuplexCordDuplexTrunk

eSWDM4– est.reachtargetannounced

NG 200G & 400G PHYs over fewer MMF Pairs Study Group Jan 22, 2018

Datasource–industryinterviews,colleaguesandindustryexperts

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Relativelinkcostsfor40GApplications

NG 200G & 400G PHYs over fewer MMF Pairs Study Group Jan 22, 2018

Datasource–industryinterviews,colleaguesandindustryexperts

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Conclusions

NG 200G & 400G PHYs over fewer MMF Pairs Study Group Jan 22, 2018

• Deploymentof200Gshouldfitwellbetween100Gand400Gintheenterprise- Approximately2yearcadencefrom40Gto100G,3-4yearsfor100Gto400G(50Gadhoc)- 200G1.ncouldextendthelifespanofQSFPandenableacommonporttype

• 40GMMFduplexquicklyadopted- SR1.nmodulesproducedincreasedreachand/ordecreasedcost

• LIGHTCOUNTINGforecastpredictsasimilaradoption for100GMMFduplex• Physicalinfrastructureisnowasignificantcomponentofdatalinkcosts- Duplexcablingwouldprovideacostadvantagefor200GMMFlinks

• 40Gand100GdatalinksarecompetitivewithshortreachSMdatalinksfordatacenterapplications- SupportiveoflongtermMMFmarketshareindatacenters