brewers association 2020 hop & brewing industry ... - usa hops ba_hop... · sales 1st qtr 2nd...

Brewers Association 2020Hop & Brewing Industry

Update

“Yesterday’s home runs don’t

win today’s games”

– Babe Ruth

Sales

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Sales

Sales

Objectives

• Brewing & Hop Industry Updates

• Annual BA Hop Survey Results

• USDA-NASS Hop Stocks Report Analysis

• Federal & International Ag Affairs Update

• BA Grants & Research Support

• Public Hop Research Sensory Update

Sales

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Sales

Sales

2019 Brewing Industry Update

• Total U.S. beer sales down ~1.5% (through Nov)

• Total number of U.S. breweries tops 8,000 for first time ever (~7,000 one year ago)

Sales

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Sales

Sales

US Craft Beer Volume % Change YOY

4%est

4%5%

6%

13%

18%18%

15%13%12%

7%6%

12%13%

8%

5%

1%2%

1%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

2019201720152013201120092007200520032001

Beer Production Year

Sales

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Sales

Sales

US Craft Beer Production Volume (MM US BBL)

26.7 25.6 24.9 24.1

23.1 22.2

18.8

13.2 11.5

10.1 9.1 8.5 8.0 7.1 6.3 5.8 5.5 5.5 5.4

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

2019201720152013201120092007200520032001

Beer Production Year

Sales

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Sales

Sales

2019 Hop Industry Update

• Ttl U.S. acres increased from 57,468 to 58,930 (+2.5%), an all-time high

PACNW acres increased by 1,500 (2.7%)

Non-PACNW acres decreased by 47 from 2433 to 2386 (-1.9%)

• Aroma Acreage proportion remained increased slightly in 2019

• Ttl U.S. production +4.3% to 113.0 MM pounds

• Non-PACNW production -33% (-45% vs CY17) to ~1 MM pounds

• PACNW yield increased from 1943 to 1981 pounds per acre (2%)

• Citra acreage (8,690) increased 36%

Data courtesy USDA-NASS ©2019 and USAHops ©2020

Sales

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Sales

Sales

2019 Brewers Association Hop Survey• Annual Survey in July & August

• 12 Years of Data collected 2008 - 2019

• Look back to beer production years 2007 – 2018

•2019 Survey = 2018 Beer Production ~= 2017 Crop Yr

• Based on craft volume as defined

• A SURVEY, so the results shown are NOT totals: “Actual Mileage May Vary”

Sales

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Sales

Sales

Hop Survey Sponsorship

Cascade: Underplanted?

Sales

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Sales

Sales

2019 Hop Survey Results Summary

• Hop Usage Rate: +2.5% to 1.72 PPB

• Variety Usage increased to an all-time high of 163 varieties

• U.S. craft brewers remain loyal to U.S. varieties at 87% of total pounds

• Shortfalls measured In 2018 in different varieties from 2017

• Galaxy repeats as highest Impact imported variety

• Hop Cost Per Barrel Continues to Increase Sharply

• Proportion of US 2017 crop consumed by craft decreased

• Contracting rates increased sharply after three years of declines

Sales

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Sales

Sales

Average Hopping Rate (Pounds per Barrel)

0.93 0.92

1.05

1.18

1.28 1.30

1.361.39

1.501.54

1.58

1.72

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Sales

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Sales

Sales

Total Number of Varieties Used

90 8892

97

105

114

132135

125

146

154

163

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Survey Year

Sales

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Sales

Sales

Percentage U.S Grown Hops Used

80.4%79.4%

82.6%

84.5%

88.8%

87.6% 87.8%

84.70% 84.8%

83.4%

85.7%

87.0%

74%

76%

78%

80%

82%

84%

86%

88%

90%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Survey Year

Sales

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Sales

Sales

Variety Shortfall

15.8%

11.6%

8.2%7.5%

2.1% 2.1% 2.1%1.4% 1.4% 1.4%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

Citra Galaxy Mosaic NelsonSauvin

Cashmere Strata Vic Secret El Dorado Motueka Sabro

Sales

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Sales

Sales

Variety Impact & Thiol Flavor Domination

4 46

810

1113

17 17

22

26

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Cascade Citra Centennial Mosaic Amarillo Simcoe Chinook El Dorado CTZ Azacca Galaxy

Impact = Rank of Frequency + Rank of Pounds

Sales

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Sales

Sales

$9.56

$4.59

$9.67

$11.26

$12.54

$16.05

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

$18

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Survey Year

Aggregate Hop Cost per Aggregate Barrels Across All Respondents

Sales

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Sales

Sales

Craft Brewer Contracting

78.6%

84.1% 83%

89.0%92.8% 92%

96.6% 95.8% 96.0%

89.0%

63.3%

72.8%

69.2%73.3%

71%

82.4%86.1%

91.2% 93.0% 91.4%89.0%

71%

45.6%

53.9%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

All Brewers

Brewers under 2500 bbl

Sales

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Sales

Sales

2019 Hop Stocks Analysis

Source: USDA-NASS 2018 Hop Stocks Report

Sales

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Sales

Sales

2019 Hop Stocks Analysis

Data Source: USDA-NASS 2019 Hop Stocks Report

74.5%

79.9%

97.3%

118.3%

111.8%108.7%

92.6%

81.5%

78.0%

80.6%87.7%

132.8%

148.2%

157.9%

130.0%

116.9%

107.8%

112.5%

106.0%

106.1%

50%

70%

90%

110%

130%

150%

170%

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

September Total Stocks (Carryout) as Proportion of Prior Year Crop Pounds

Sales

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Sales

Sales

2019 Hop Stocks Analysis

Data Source: USDA-NASS 2019 Hop Stocks Report

-41.9%

-32.6%

-7.5%

-1.7%1.8%

-10.9%

-39.7%

-26.0%

-18.3%

-18.6%

-7.4%-4.6%

-12.3%

-3.4%

5.8% 12.7%

16.5%

34.4%

27.9%

37.8%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

September Dealer & Grower Stocks Less Brewer Stocks As A Proportion of Prior Year Crop

Dealer Held Net Inventory Era (Since

2013)

Sales

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Sales

Sales

Federal Affairs Outreach 2019

Sales

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Sales

Sales

show

International Ag Policy

https://www.deutscher-hopfen.de/de/Presse/Global-Hop-Summit

Sales

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Sales

Sales

show

Principles of Integrated Crop Protection

Location

Fertilization

Clean PlantsVariety Choice

Cover Cropping Erosion Control

IrrigationPromote Beneficials

Hygiene MeasuresPreventive Action

Pest Control, Decision Support

Inspection

Warning Service

Forecasting System

Economic Thresholds

Mechanical & Fire Pruning

Biological & Biotechnical Control

No Chemical Control

Chemical ControlChemical

Sales

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Sales

Sales

Grants and Research Funding Update

Years 2015 - 2019

Competitive Research Grants $879,589

HGA Sponsorships and Projects $26,500

HRC Dues & Growout Funds $229,594

USDA Breeding Program $687,357

Total Hop Industry Support $1,823,040

Sales

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Sales

Sales

show

Best Practices Directory

Sales

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Sales

Sales

Public Hop Program ResearchRenee Eriksen:

Genetics of

• Drought Tolerance

• Heat StressDan Groenendale

Angela Randazzo

Sales

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Sales

Sales

Public Breeding Sensory Update

CHEERS!