black swans and bursness : countering myths about terrorism · 2020. 2. 20. · 1 iraq 11.29 0.48 2...

BlackSwansandBurs.ness:CounteringMythsAboutTerrorism

GaryLaFreeUniversityofMaryland

BTIIns7tute

UniversityofTexasatElPasoJune1,2017

Na7onalConsor7umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorismACenterofExcellenceoftheU.S.DepartmentofHomelandSecurity

STARTMissionSTARTadvancesscience-basedknowledge

aboutthehumancausesandconsequencesofterrorismasaresourceforhomelandsecuritypolicymakers

andprac..oners.

Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorism

Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorismACenterofExcellenceoftheU.S.DepartmentofHomelandSecurity

TheImpactofBlackSwanEvents

Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorismACenterofExcellenceoftheU.S.DepartmentofHomelandSecurity

“Bursty”processes

Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorismACenterofExcellenceoftheU.S.DepartmentofHomelandSecurity

GTDTHEN…

Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorism

GTDNOW…

Thousands of sources worldwide

generate more than 1.6 million

articles per day.

Initial searches return ~50,000 articles per week.

About 7 percent are potentially

relevant to terrorist attacks

GTD staff identify hundreds of unique terrorist attacks per month and record

120+ points of information about each

one.

Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorism

FINDINGOPENSOURCEARTICLESABOUTTERRORISTATTACKS

Step1:BooleanfiltersuseaXack-specifickeywordstoinclude/excludear7cles.

Step2:NaturalLanguageProcessing§  Deduplica7on:Removalof

ar7clesthatare>82.5%similar§  Loca7onextrac7on

Step3:MachineLearningmodelclassifiestheremainingar7clesasrelevantornotrelevant.

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

Num

bero

fAr.cles

Date

nClassifiedasrelevant

nClassifiedasnotrelevant

The initial pool of sources comes from a media aggregator called Metabase, which we supplement with additional content from specific

media sources and Open Source Center (opensource.gov)

Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorismACenterofExcellenceoftheU.S.DepartmentofHomelandSecurity

EightMyths

Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorism

MYTH1.TerroristaKackswererapidlyincreasingintheyearsleadingupto9/11.

Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorism

AnnualAXacksWorldwide,1970to2015(N=156,772)

Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorism

Source:GlobalTerrorismDatabase

TERRORISMINTHEUNITEDSTATES,1970-2014(N=2649)

Source:GlobalTerrorismDatabase

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Num

bero

fAKacks

Year

Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorism

MYTH 2: Terrorist attacks reach every corner of the world.

Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorismACenterofExcellenceoftheU.S.DepartmentofHomelandSecurity

TERRORISTATTACKS,2013

Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorism

Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorism

TopTenCountriesforTerrorism,1970-2014

Rank CountryCumula.ve%ofAll

AKacksCumula.ve%ofAll

Countries1 Iraq 11.29 0.482 Pakistan 19.40 0.973 India 25.79 1.454 Colombia 31.38 1.935 Afghanistan 36.85 2.426 Peru 41.13 2.907 ElSalvador 44.88 3.388 UnitedKingdom 48.32 3.869 Philippines 51.74 4.3510 Spain 54.03 4.83

Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorism

MYTH 3: The U.S. is more frequently targeted by terrorists than any other country in the world.

Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorism

TWENTYTOPRANKINGCOUNTRIES,TOTALATTACKSANDFATALITIES,1970TO2014MostFrequentlyAKacked MostFatali.es

Rank Country AKacks Country Fatali.es1 Iraq 16023 Iraq 497602 Pakistan 11522 Afghanistan 208083 India 9069 Pakistan 199464 Colombia 7942 India 179575 Afghanistan 7765 SriLanka 155196 Peru 6075 Colombia 144607 ElSalvador 5320 Nigeria 131588 UnitedKingdom 4881 Peru 127469 Philippines 4860 ElSalvador 1205310 Spain 3242 Algeria 1106111 Turkey 3144 Nicaragua 1059812 Thailand 3074 Philippines 820113 SriLanka 2969 Syria 644714 Algeria 2704 Somalia 527615 UnitedStates 2646 Turkey 518916 France 2580 Guatemala 516717 Somalia 2482 Russia 416118 Lebanon 2374 Yemen 412319 Chile 2336 Lebanon 389120 Nigeria 2251 Burundi 3888

Source:GlobalTerrorismDatabase

Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorism

But…foiledjihadiplotsincreasing…

Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorism

MYTH 4: Most terrorist attacks involve disgruntled groups and individuals from one country carrying out attacks on civilians in other countries.

Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorism

TotalAc.vityby53StateDepartment-DesignatedFTOs

3.4%(570)

96.6%(16,346)

9.4%(3,943)

90.6%(38,113)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

AKacksonUSTargets AKacksonNonUSTargets

AXacks Fatali7es

LaFree,YangandCrenshaw(2009)

Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorism

MYTH 5: Terrorism is unrelated to traditional political grievances.

Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorism

TOPTWENTYPERPETRATORORGANIZATIONS:TOTALTERRORISTATTACKS,1970TO2013PerpetratorGroup AXacks Fatali7es

1 ShiningPath(SL) 4534 115812 FarabundoMar7Na7onalLibera7onFront(FMLN) 3351 80653 Taliban 3221 101144 IrishRepublicanArmy(IRA) 2673 18095 Revolu7onaryArmedForcesofColombia(FARC) 2251 55466 CommunistPartyofIndia-Maoist(CPI-Maoist)/Maoists 2127 20087 BasqueFatherlandandFreedom(ETA) 2027 8188 NewPeople'sArmy(NPA) 1634 37039 Libera7onTigersofTamilEelam(LTTE) 1607 1096710 KurdistanWorkers'Party(PKK) 1389 494311 Na7onalLibera7onArmyofColombia(ELN) 1361 181812 NicaraguanDemocra7cForce(FDN) 895 666213 Tehrik-i-TalibanPakistan(TTP) 876 415114 Al-Shabaab 872 239815ManuelRodriguezPatrio7cFront(FPMR) 830 9316 BokoHaram 808 368617 CorsicanNa7onalLibera7onFront(FLNC) 639 1318 Al-Qa`idainIraq 636 414119 AfricanNa7onalCongress(SouthAfrica) 606 63320M-19(MovementofApril19) 564 1402Source:GlobalTerrorismDatabase

Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorism

MYTH 6: Most terrorist attacks are incredibly lethal.

Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorism

LETHALITYOFTERRORISTATTACKS,1970-2014(N=141,966)

55.40%

19.72%

11.37%9.03%

2.96% 1.21%0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

0 1-2 2-4 5-10 11-25 >25

Percen

tofA

Kacks

NumberofFatali.es

Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorism

MYTH 7: Most terrorist attacks rely on sophisticated weaponry.

Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorism

WEAPONSUSEDINTERRORISTATTACKS,1970-2014(N=141,966)

Source:GlobalTerrorismDatabase

Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite,49.80%

Firearms,33.72%

Unknown,7.78%

Incendiary,6.44%

Melee,1.86% Other,0.40%

Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorism

MYTH 8: Most terrorist organizations are long lasting and difficult to eradicate.

Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorism

LONGEVITYOFTERRORISTGROUPS,1970-2014

Source: Global Terrorism Database

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

<1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-6 6-7 7-8 8-9 9-10 >10

Percen

tofa

llPe

rpetua

torG

roup

s

LifeSpan(years)

Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorism

But terrorism also tends to be “bursty.”

US Attack Trajectories

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4 19

70

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

21st Century Boom (4.3%) Short Lived (43.5%) 70s Boom (22.8%) 80s Boom (29.5%)

32

Share of World-Wide attacks by Country

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

Year

Av

era

ge

# o

f E

ve

nts

G1 (41.2%) G2 (28.3%) G3 (13.5%) G4 (7.0%) G5 (10.0%)

Aerial Hijackings, 1948-2007

Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorism

Suicide Bombings Worldwide, 1970-2014

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

IED Attacks Worldwide, 2000-2010

Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorism

TOPTWENTYPERPETRATORORGANIZATIONS:TOTALTERRORISTATTACKS,2014PerpetratorGroupName AKacks Fatali.es Injuries

IslamicStateofIraqandtheLevant(ISIL) 1241 9324 1241Taliban 1032 4110.34 1032Al-Shabaab 864 1782 864BokoHaram 493 7112 493DonetskPeople'sRepublic 325 1005.33 325NewPeople'sArmy(NPA) 289 188 289Al-Qa`idaintheArabianPeninsula(AQAP) 283 873.5 283Maoists 253 116 253Tehrik-i-TalibanPakistan(TTP) 166 781 166Revolu7onaryArmedForcesofColombia(FARC) 163 88 163FulaniMilitants 161 1251 161Huthis 134 234 134MuslimFundamentalists 131 158 131LuhanskPeople'sRepublic 110 172.87 110Separa7sts 104 47 104BalochRepublicanArmy(BRA) 101 51.99 101Janjaweed 97 203 97BangsamoroIslamicFreedomMovement(BIFM) 87 98 87Al-NusrahFront 72 767 72CommunistPartyofIndia-Maoist(CPI-Maoist) 68 71 68Source:GlobalTerrorismDatabase

Na.onalConsor.umfortheStudyofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorism

THANKS!

GaryLaFree(glafree@umd.edu)

www.start.umd.edu/gtd

www.start.umd.edu/newsletters

0

0.001

0.002

0.003

0.004

0.005

0.006

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

prob

abili

ty p

(τ)

days between repeat crimes (τ)

repeatcrimeismuchmorelikelytohappeninashortintervalof.meacerthefirstevent

Near Repeat Crime Distributions

Event Dependence in IED attacks Najaf

0

50

100

150

200

0 100 200 300

Num

ber o

f Eve

nts

Waiting Time (τ)

strong exact-repeat effect to at least 28 days

ResearchbyJeffBran<nghametal.

Crime Patterns in Space & Time

residen7alburglaries2006Hollenbeck,n=384

gangshoo7ngs2006Hollenbeck,n=540

ResearchbyJeffBran<nghametal.

BaghdadJan–May2007

5769IEDevents

ResearchbyJeffBran<nghametal.

Province Level Distribution of ETA Attacks for the Two Major Attack Periods, 1970-2007

IndependentVariables Model2(logis.cModel)Same/Con.guousvs.Non-AdjacentProvince

TimePeriod

Phase2(1980–2007) -.66**

TimeGapBetweenIncidents

TimeGap(indays) -.02***

GeographicRegions

BAC 1.92***

Navarra .87***

Madrid -.60***

Predicting the Next ETA Attack (N = 1,890)

* p < .05; ** p < .01; *** p < .001

Time and Space

Distribution of ETA and

FMLN attacks

ResearchbyBehlendorf,LaFreeandLegault

Terrorist Tactics by ETA and the FMLN associated with Microcycles

(Group-Level Logistic Fixed Effects)

Variable ExpβETA

(1970-2007)(SE)

ExpβFMLN

(1980-1992)(SE)

Testfordifferenceofβ

(Sig.)

Assassina.ons 1.068(/257)

1.651(.663

.929(.177)

Bombings 1.623*(.322)

3.129***(.855)

1.944*(.026)

ArmedAssaults 1.249(.332)

1.275(.336)

.057(.477)

FatalAKack .738*(.114)

.595***(.069)

-1.115(.132)

ResearchbyBehlendorf,LaFreeandLegault

Location of ETA and FMLN attacks and Microcycles (Group-Level Logistic Fixed Effects)

Variable ExpβETA

(1970-2007)(SE)

ExpβFMLN

(1980-1992)(SE)

Testfordifferenceofβ

(Sig.)

Na.onalCapital 5.970***(1.425)

40.994***(12.856)

4.889***(.000)

Provincial/RegionalCapital 3.598***(.419)

1.135(.169)

-6.111***(.000)

DefendedSpace 2.394***(.329)

1.234*(.127)

-3.861***(.000)

ResearchbyBehlendorf,LaFreeandLegault