better way to develop business forecasts

A BETTER WAY TO DEVELOPBUSINESS FORECASTS

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of forecast to PLAN FOR ITS FUTUREEvery business relies on some form

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But most of the times

Sometimes forecasts are accurate THEY ARE NOT

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But Consistently they are:

TIME CONSUMING

HARD TO DEVELOP

RESOURCE INTENSE

Days, weeks and sometimes months planning their long range forecasts

COMPANIES SPEND

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UNFORTUNATELY!!!No book, class or training course teaches

how to forecast properly

Managers develop their own forecasting methodologies

AS RESULT

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INCONSISTENT AND NON REPEATABLE FORECASTS ACROSS THE ORGANIZATION

LEADING TO

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They spend days trying to:

Justify underlying assumptions

Roll up all their forecasts

Rationalize the overall final number

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THIS TAKES AWAY TIME FROM Actual planning and execution to just developing

revenue numbers

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FORECASTINGDOES NOT NEED TO BETHIS DIFFICULT

NOT ANYMORE!!

With a logically structured forecasting methodology and smart quantitative tools, companies can develop more

ACCURATE, REPEATABLE and RELIABLEforecasts in minutes

?SHOULD FORECASTS BE DEVELOPED?

SO HOW!!

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Finance and Management

Factory operations

Product Management

Sales

BUSINESS FORECAST

First, get the right parties at the table

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3

4

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Finance and Management

Factory operations

Product Management

Sales

BUSINESS FORECAST

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Then get top management’s financial targets and expected market conditions

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DATA BASED BASELINE REVENUE FORECAST

$300

$250

$200

$150

$100

$50

$02011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

82,0%

81,0%

80,0%

79,0%

78,0%

77,0%

76,0%

Actuals Forecast

Use these estimates and data on historical performance to develop a baseline forecast

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Finance + Management

Factory operations

Product Management

Sales

BUSINESS FORECAST

Then utilize sales feedback to account for potential new, existing or lost business

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UTILIZE A SIMPLE SALES PIPELINE TOOL TO CAPTURE SALES INPUTS

Part Number Customer Industry IndustryPeak Expected Annual Volume

Expected Price ($per unit) Probability Status Expected Start

Project Lifetime

AZ349C-52 Precision Microelectronics Technology / Semiconductors AlphaDigi Life Extension 1,900,00 1,42 High Proposal Jan 2016 3

AZ349C-52 Argo Chemical Industrial Chemicals Argo Fertilizer Plant 234,00 1,42 Medium Proposal Jan 2016 3

AZ349C-52 Otis Appliances Industrial Argo Fertilizer Plant 2 1,234,00 1,72 Medium Samples Jan 2016 3

AZ349C-52 DynaRob Military / Robotics Extended Battlefield Robot - 13,100,00 0,92 High Proposal Jan 2016 3

AZ349C-52 Precision Microelectronics Technology / Semiconductors AlphaDigi Life Extension 19,00,00 1,42 High Proposal Jan 2016 3

AZ349C-52 Precision Microelectronics Technology / Semiconductors AlphaDigi Life Extension 19,00,00 1,42 High Proposal Jan 2016 3

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Calculate total expected revenue of all opportunities in the pipeline and expected time frame

Total value of revenue from expected new

opportunities

Expected total revenue

• Probability of success • Time into future • Sales success rate • Typical product ramp up rate

WEIGHTED FACTORS

REVENUE CALCULATION

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Finance + Management

Factory operations

Product Management

Sales

BUSINESS FORECAST

Then include product management inputs about new, upcoming or soon to be obsoleted products

3

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Product Extension

DeclineMaturityGrowthIntroduction

Sale

s Calculate potential revenue from upcoming new products and planned obsolete products based on historical ramp up and down curves

REVENUE PER PRODUCT LIFECYCLE STAGE

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Finance + Management

Factory operations

Product Management

Sales

BUSINESS FORECAST

Finally, include factory inputs to ensure manufacturing capacity is capable of supporting the expected total revenue

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Adjust total revenue based on factory’s feedback on available capacity to support upcoming demand

CAPACITY ANALYSIS

IS EASIER SAID THEN DONEGood comprehensive approach

MULTIPLE EXCEL FILESCollaboration with

is not the best way

MANAGERS NEED A RELIABLE COLLABORATIVE PLATFORM to easily and quickly gather inputs from all parties and quantitatively analyze data to

develop an overall forecast

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Finance + Management

Factory Product Management

Sales

KEY STAKEHOLDER INPUTS

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SMART DATA ANALYSIS

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EASY INTUITIVE MANAGEMENT DASHBOARD

A single dashboard to develop business forecasts in minutes

SMART DATA ANALYSIS ENGINE

SALES PIPELINE MANAGER

PRODUCT LIFECYCLE MANAGER

FACTORY THROUGHPUT MANAGER

A COMPLETE BUSINESS FORECASTING PLATFORM

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NO MORE CONFUSION WITH MULTIPLE SPREADSHEETS

AN EASY WAY FOR ALL KEY STAKEHOLDERS TO COLLABORATE

SINGLE SOURCE OF TRUSTWORTHY DATA

SMART DATA ANALYSIS FOR FACT BASED FORECASTING

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