avocado market report week eu - referen ce price - 48 … · w48 w48 / w47 2017 / 2016 33.25 $ /...
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AVOCADO MARKET REPORT
www.fruitrop.com fruitmarket@cirad.fr
EUROPEAN MARKET— Overview
EU Reference Price—Hass grade 18
Global European supply—w 48
1
This document was produced by the Markets News Service of the PERSYST department at CIRAD, for the exclusive use of subscribers. The data presented are from reliable sources, but CIRAD may not be held responsible for any error or omission. Under no circumstances may the published prices be considered to be transaction prices. Their aim is to shed light on the medium and long-term market trends and evolutions. This publication is protected by copyright, and all rights of reproduction and distribution are prohibited.
WEEK
48
2017
W48 W48/ W47 2017 / 2016
13.10 € / 4 kg box
- 0.15 € + 9 %
13,75 13,50 13,25 13,10
0,00
2,00
4,00
6,00
8,00
10,00
12,00
14,00
16,00
w45 w46 w47 w48
eur
o /
4 k
g b
ox
E U - R E F E R E N C E P R I C E -H A S S G R A D E 1 8
Despite a sluggish atmosphere, the avocado market remains well-oriented. Following a month of November heavily sup-plied (+13%/2016), overall Hass volumes have begun to de-cline, reaching levels below 2016 (-9%). Indeed, the supply pattern has changed as Chilean deliveries have finally further tended down. The peak of deliveries has ended and volumes have dropped significantly, reaching levels below 2016 (-8%). Thus, developing Mediterranean seasons have not been suffi-cient to offset the Chilean decrease: Spanish deliveries have accelerated but Israeli volumes have stabilized at levels below 2016 (-33%). Besides, Mexican deliveries have punctually de-creased, recovering levels below 2016 (-13%). Nevertheless, the atmosphere has remained sluggish. Indeed, sales at retail-ers have just maintained a steady pace while a very limited demand has been registered on the wholesale segment. More-over, some stocks have remained available on the market. In this context, all prices have continued to erode but levels have remained well above average. For green varieties, volumes have slightly tended down, recov-ering average levels, as the transition between Ettinger and Pinkerton/Fuerte from Israel is ongoing. Moreover, demand has remained dynamic thus, prices have firmed up, keeping high levels.
Variety Trend Observation
Accumulated supply
Total year
2017
(million
boxes)
Compari-
son with
year 2016
Compari-
son with
year 2015
Hass Sharp decrease of the global offer, reaching levels
below 2016 (-9%) due to the further decline of
Chilean deliveries.
89 253 + 17 % + 37 %
Green = Stable offer, levels close to the average. 16 136 - 7 % - 12 %
Some stocks available,
especially on medium and
small grades.
LEVEL OF STOCKS
Chile
47%
Mexico7%
Israel
23%
Spain12%
Other
11%
Market share of suppliers in EU (Green & Hass)
18%
0%
10%
20%
30%
w45 - w47 w46 - w48
E U - G L O B A L H A S S S UP P L Y T R E N D
Average last 3 weeks 2017/ 2016
Average last 3 seasons ofthe annual consumptiongrowth
Content published by the Market News Service of CIRAD − All rights reserved
http://www.fruitrop.com/en/Produits/Banana
-
AVOCADO MARKET REPORT
www.fruitrop.com fruitmarket@cirad.fr
EUROPEAN MARKET— Trend
Import prices in Europe (FOT)
WEEK
48
2017
2
This document was produced by the Markets News Service of the PERSYST department at CIRAD, for the exclusive use of subscribers. The data presented are from reliable sources, but CIRAD may not be held responsible for any error or omission. Under no circumstances may the published prices be considered to be transaction prices. Their aim is to shed light on the medium and long-term market trends and evolutions. This publication is protected by copyright, and all rights of reproduction and distribution are prohibited.
in euro /
4 kg box
Hass Green varieties
Chile Mexico Colombia Israel
(Ettinger)
Spain
(Fuerte) Israel Spain
Israel
(Pinkerton)
Israel
(Arad)
Grade 12 10.00 = 15.00 / 15.50
=↘
Grade 14 13.00 / 14.00 = 13.00 / 14.00
=
(8.00) 8.50 /
9.50 =↗ 10.00 =
15.00 / 15.50 =↘
10.00 /
11.00
8.50 / 9.00
(10.00)
Grade 16 13.00 / 13.50
(14.00) =↘ 13.00 / 13.50 (14.00) =↘
(12.00) 13.00 / 14.00
=↘
(8.00) 8.50 /
9.50 =↗ 10.00 =
13.50 / 14.00 (15.00) =↘
15.00 / 15.50 =↘
10.00 /
11.00
8.50 / 9.00
(10.00)
Grade 18 (12.00) 12.50 /
13.50 =↘ (12.00) 12.50 /
13.50 =↘ 12.00 / 13.00
=↘
(8.00) 8.50 /
9.50 =↗
13.00 / 13.50 =↘
14.00 / 14.50 =↘
10.00 /
11.00
8.50 / 9.00
(10.00)
Grade 20 11.00 / 12.00
↘ 11.00 / 12.00
↘ (10.00)
11.00 / 12.00
11.50 / 13.00 =↘
13.00 / 13.50 =↘
Grade 22 9.50 / 10.50 ↘ 9.50 / 10.50 ↘ 9.00 / 10.50
↘
10.50 / 11.00 ↘
Grade 24 8.00 / 9.50 ↘ 8.00 / 9.50 ↘ 8.00 / 9.50 ↘ 9.50 / 10.50 ↘
* ( ) : lowest or highest price, out of average prices
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
eur
o/
4 k
g b
ox
EU - REF EREN C E P RI C E -HA S S G RA DE 18
2017 2016 2015 2014
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
eur
o /
4 k
g b
ox
EU - REF EREN C E P RI C E -G REEN A V O C A DO G RA DE 16/18
2017 2016 2015 2014
Content published by the Market News Service of CIRAD − All rights reserved
http://www.fruitrop.com/en/Produits/Banana
-
AVOCADO MARKET REPORT
www.fruitrop.com fruitmarket@cirad.fr
EUROPEAN MARKET— Trend
Retail prices—FRANCE
3
WEEK
48
2017
Global European supply—Detailed by sources
Comparison with
Week 47 Week 48 Average 3
years
Packed 0,79 € / piece + 9 %
Loose 1,43 € / piece = + 18 %
Source : RNM
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
% o
fd s
up
erm
arke
ts d
oin
g pr
omot
ions
Promotional frequency on the French market
2017 / 2018 2016 / 2017 2015 / 2016 2014 / 2015Source RNM
0,00
0,20
0,40
0,60
0,80
euro
/ k
g
France - Average retail pricesPacked avocados
2017 / 2018 2016 / 2017 2015 / 2016 2014 / 2015
Source RNM
0,00
0,50
1,00
1,50
euro
/ k
g
France - Average retail pricesLoose avocados
2017 / 2018 2016 / 2017 2015 / 2016 2014 / 2015
Source RNM
Origin Trend
Accumulated supply
Observation Last 3 weeks
supply
2017 / 2018
Total season
2017/18
(boxes)
Comparison
with season
2016/17
Comparison
with season
2015/16
Chile ↘↘ Hass Sharp decrease, recovering levels below
2016 (-8%). 14 165 000 + 26 % + 69 % + 30 %
Mexico ↘ Hass Punctual decline, reaching levels below
2016 (-13%). 2 244 000 - 2% - 14 % + 16 %
Israel = Hass
= Green - 4 %
Stable deliveries of green varieties at ave-rage levels. Stable arrivals of Hass at levels
below 2016 (-33%). 3 279 000 - 1 % + 34 %
Spain =↗ Hass
=↘ Green -
Developing season of Hass. Slightly lower volumes of Fuerte.
- - -
Colombia = Hass - Stable arrivals. - - -
Content published by the Market News Service of CIRAD − All rights reserved
http://www.fruitrop.com/en/Produits/Banana
-
AVOCADO MARKET REPORT
www.fruitrop.com fruitmarket@cirad.fr
4
WEEK
48
2017
EUROPEAN MARKET— Forecast
Global European supply Import prices in Europe (FOT)
The avocado market should completely shift towards a tenser situation by the end of the year. On the one hand, sales should accelerate due to the upcoming programs and promotions of the Christmas pe-riod. Indeed, importers have already established their programs that should begin by w50. On the other hand, the global Hass supply should remain moderate and below 2016 : Chilean volumes will stabilize at levels below 2016 until mid December. Furthermore, the origin should significantly slowdown during the second part of the month: the export potential forecast is similar to 2016 and the season is running ahead of schedule thus, the remaining volumes should be almost 50 % lower than 2016. Besides, volumes of Mediterranean suppliers should only accelerate to reach their cruising speed at the end of the year/beginning of 2018. Moreover, both Spain and Israel have forecasted lighter seasons than 2016-17 (-20% for Spain, -25/30% for Israel). In this con-text, other suppliers (Morocco, Colombia and Mexico) which have forecasted higher crops should not be able to entirely compensate for the lack of volumes. For the green varieties, the last batches of Ettinger from Israel should enter the market in w48.
Variety Trend Observation
Green Decreasing Israeli volumes due
to the expected deficit of Pin-
kerton/Fuerte/Arad.
Hass = Stable Chilean volumes at le-
vels below 2016.
You can find more information on
Avocado forecast for winter season
2017-18
Mediterranean Hass crop forecast
World avocado statistics
Avocado monthly market review
Variety Trend Observation
Green = Firm prices.
Hass = Upward trend of prices.
18%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
w45 - w47 w46 - w48 w47 - w49
E U - G L O B A L H A S S S U P P L Y T R E N D
Average last 3weeks 2017 /2016
Average last 3seasons of theannualconsumptiongrowth
Content published by the Market News Service of CIRAD − All rights reserved
http://www.fruitrop.com/en/Produits/Bananahttp://www.fruitrop.com/en/Articles-Web/Studies-Analysis/2017/2017-18-avocado-campaign-forecastD:/Mes%20Donnees/Musiquehttp://www.fruitrop.com/en/Articles-Web/Studies-Analysis/2017/2017-18-avocado-campaign-forecastD:/Mes%20Donnees/Musiquehttp://www.fruitrop.com/en/Articles-Web/Direct-from-the-markets/2017/Avocado-smaller-Mediterranean-Hass-crop-in-perspectiveD:/Mes%20Donnees/Musiquehttp://www.fruitrop.com/en/Articles-Web/Statistics/2017/Avocado-2016-2017-statisticshttp://www.fruitrop.com/en/Articles-Web/Market-trends/2017/Avocado-September-2017
-
WEEK
48
2017
AVOCADO MARKET REPORT
www.fruitrop.com fruitmarket@cirad.fr
US MARKET— Overview
USDA Reference Price in the USA
Spot market—Hass grade 48
Global US supply
5
W48 W48 / W47 2017 / 2016
33.25 $ / 11.15 kg lug
+ 6 $ + 14 %
The global supply in the US market has further tended down, keeping levels below average (-16%) but just re-covering levels similar to 2016. First, Mexican deliveries have further decreased, recovering levels similar to last year. Chilean volumes have continued to tend down, still exhibiting levels below 2016 as the peak of arrivals has taken place earlier than last year. In this context, prices on the spot market for Mexican fruits have recovered an upward trend, above 2016.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Tho
usa
nd
to
nn
es
G L O B A L S U P P L Y T O T H E U S M A R K E T
2 017 2 016 2 015 2 014
Source : HAB
Mexico94%
Chile6%
Market share of suppliers in the USA
Source : HAB
0
20
40
60
80
100
$ /
11,1
5 kg
lug
I M P O R T P R I C E O N T H E S P O T M A R K E T H A S S - G R A D E 4 8 - I N D O L L A R
2017 2014 2015 2016Source : USDA
Variety Trend Observation
Accumulated supply Last 3 W
supply /
average Total year
2017 (tons)
Comparison
with
year 2016
Comparison
with
year2015
Hass Sharp decrease, recovering
levels similar to 2016. 878 990 - 4 % - 1 % - 2 %
Source: USDA
10,05
13,10
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
eur
o /
4 k
g b
ox
A V E R A G E P R I C E S I N T H E E U A N D U S AE Q U I V A L E N T G R A D E 1 8 , S P O T M A R K E T , I N
E U R O S
USA Import price - Hass Grade 48 (equivalent grade 18)
EU Import price - Hass grade 18
Source : USDA /Cirad
Content published by the Market News Service of CIRAD − All rights reserved
http://www.fruitrop.com/en/Produits/Banana
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