avocado market report week eu - referen ce price - 48 … · w48 w48 / w47 2017 / 2016 33.25 $ /...

AVOCADO MARKET REPORT

www.fruitrop.com [email protected]

EUROPEAN MARKET— Overview

EU Reference Price—Hass grade 18

Global European supply—w 48

1

This document was produced by the Markets News Service of the PERSYST department at CIRAD, for the exclusive use of subscribers. The data presented are from reliable sources, but CIRAD may not be held responsible for any error or omission. Under no circumstances may the published prices be considered to be transaction prices. Their aim is to shed light on the medium and long-term market trends and evolutions. This publication is protected by copyright, and all rights of reproduction and distribution are prohibited.

WEEK

48

2017

W48 W48/ W47 2017 / 2016

13.10 € / 4 kg box

- 0.15 € + 9 %

13,75 13,50 13,25 13,10

0,00

2,00

4,00

6,00

8,00

10,00

12,00

14,00

16,00

w45 w46 w47 w48

eur

o /

4 k

g b

ox

E U - R E F E R E N C E P R I C E -H A S S G R A D E 1 8

Despite a sluggish atmosphere, the avocado market remains well-oriented. Following a month of November heavily sup-plied (+13%/2016), overall Hass volumes have begun to de-cline, reaching levels below 2016 (-9%). Indeed, the supply pattern has changed as Chilean deliveries have finally further tended down. The peak of deliveries has ended and volumes have dropped significantly, reaching levels below 2016 (-8%). Thus, developing Mediterranean seasons have not been suffi-cient to offset the Chilean decrease: Spanish deliveries have accelerated but Israeli volumes have stabilized at levels below 2016 (-33%). Besides, Mexican deliveries have punctually de-creased, recovering levels below 2016 (-13%). Nevertheless, the atmosphere has remained sluggish. Indeed, sales at retail-ers have just maintained a steady pace while a very limited demand has been registered on the wholesale segment. More-over, some stocks have remained available on the market. In this context, all prices have continued to erode but levels have remained well above average. For green varieties, volumes have slightly tended down, recov-ering average levels, as the transition between Ettinger and Pinkerton/Fuerte from Israel is ongoing. Moreover, demand has remained dynamic thus, prices have firmed up, keeping high levels.

Variety Trend Observation

Accumulated supply

Total year

2017

(million

boxes)

Compari-

son with

year 2016

Compari-

son with

year 2015

Hass Sharp decrease of the global offer, reaching levels

below 2016 (-9%) due to the further decline of

Chilean deliveries.

89 253 + 17 % + 37 %

Green = Stable offer, levels close to the average. 16 136 - 7 % - 12 %

Some stocks available,

especially on medium and

small grades.

LEVEL OF STOCKS

Chile

47%

Mexico7%

Israel

23%

Spain12%

Other

11%

Market share of suppliers in EU (Green & Hass)

18%

0%

10%

20%

30%

w45 - w47 w46 - w48

E U - G L O B A L H A S S S UP P L Y T R E N D

Average last 3 weeks 2017/ 2016

Average last 3 seasons ofthe annual consumptiongrowth

Content published by the Market News Service of CIRAD − All rights reserved

http://www.fruitrop.com/en/Produits/Banana



EUROPEAN MARKET— Trend

Import prices in Europe (FOT)

WEEK

48

2017

2

This document was produced by the Markets News Service of the PERSYST department at CIRAD, for the exclusive use of subscribers. The data presented are from reliable sources, but CIRAD may not be held responsible for any error or omission. Under no circumstances may the published prices be considered to be transaction prices. Their aim is to shed light on the medium and long-term market trends and evolutions. This publication is protected by copyright, and all rights of reproduction and distribution are prohibited.

in euro /

4 kg box

Hass Green varieties

Chile Mexico Colombia Israel

(Ettinger)

Spain

(Fuerte) Israel Spain

Israel

(Pinkerton)

Israel

(Arad)

Grade 12 10.00 = 15.00 / 15.50

=↘

Grade 14 13.00 / 14.00 = 13.00 / 14.00

=

(8.00) 8.50 /

9.50 =↗ 10.00 =

15.00 / 15.50 =↘

10.00 /

11.00

8.50 / 9.00

(10.00)

Grade 16 13.00 / 13.50

(14.00) =↘ 13.00 / 13.50 (14.00) =↘

(12.00) 13.00 / 14.00

=↘

(8.00) 8.50 /

9.50 =↗ 10.00 =

13.50 / 14.00 (15.00) =↘

15.00 / 15.50 =↘

10.00 /

11.00

8.50 / 9.00

(10.00)

Grade 18 (12.00) 12.50 /

13.50 =↘ (12.00) 12.50 /

13.50 =↘ 12.00 / 13.00

=↘

(8.00) 8.50 /

9.50 =↗

13.00 / 13.50 =↘

14.00 / 14.50 =↘

10.00 /

11.00

8.50 / 9.00

(10.00)

Grade 20 11.00 / 12.00

↘ 11.00 / 12.00

↘ (10.00)

11.00 / 12.00

11.50 / 13.00 =↘

13.00 / 13.50 =↘

Grade 22 9.50 / 10.50 ↘ 9.50 / 10.50 ↘ 9.00 / 10.50

↘

10.50 / 11.00 ↘

Grade 24 8.00 / 9.50 ↘ 8.00 / 9.50 ↘ 8.00 / 9.50 ↘ 9.50 / 10.50 ↘

* ( ) : lowest or highest price, out of average prices

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

eur

o/

4 k

g b

ox

EU - REF EREN C E P RI C E -HA S S G RA DE 18

2017 2016 2015 2014

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

eur

o /

4 k

g b

ox

EU - REF EREN C E P RI C E -G REEN A V O C A DO G RA DE 16/18

2017 2016 2015 2014





EUROPEAN MARKET— Trend

Retail prices—FRANCE

3

WEEK

48

2017

Global European supply—Detailed by sources

Comparison with

Week 47 Week 48 Average 3

years

Packed 0,79 € / piece + 9 %

Loose 1,43 € / piece = + 18 %

Source : RNM

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

% o

fd s

up

erm

arke

ts d

oin

g pr

omot

ions

Promotional frequency on the French market

2017 / 2018 2016 / 2017 2015 / 2016 2014 / 2015Source RNM

0,00

0,20

0,40

0,60

0,80

euro

/ k

g

France - Average retail pricesPacked avocados

2017 / 2018 2016 / 2017 2015 / 2016 2014 / 2015

Source RNM

0,00

0,50

1,00

1,50

euro

/ k

g

France - Average retail pricesLoose avocados

2017 / 2018 2016 / 2017 2015 / 2016 2014 / 2015

Source RNM

Origin Trend

Accumulated supply

Observation Last 3 weeks

supply

2017 / 2018

Total season

2017/18

(boxes)

Comparison

with season

2016/17

Comparison

with season

2015/16

Chile ↘↘ Hass Sharp decrease, recovering levels below

2016 (-8%). 14 165 000 + 26 % + 69 % + 30 %

Mexico ↘ Hass Punctual decline, reaching levels below

2016 (-13%). 2 244 000 - 2% - 14 % + 16 %

Israel = Hass

= Green - 4 %

Stable deliveries of green varieties at ave-rage levels. Stable arrivals of Hass at levels

below 2016 (-33%). 3 279 000 - 1 % + 34 %

Spain =↗ Hass

=↘ Green -

Developing season of Hass. Slightly lower volumes of Fuerte.

- - -

Colombia = Hass - Stable arrivals. - - -





4

WEEK

48

2017

EUROPEAN MARKET— Forecast

Global European supply Import prices in Europe (FOT)

The avocado market should completely shift towards a tenser situation by the end of the year. On the one hand, sales should accelerate due to the upcoming programs and promotions of the Christmas pe-riod. Indeed, importers have already established their programs that should begin by w50. On the other hand, the global Hass supply should remain moderate and below 2016 : Chilean volumes will stabilize at levels below 2016 until mid December. Furthermore, the origin should significantly slowdown during the second part of the month: the export potential forecast is similar to 2016 and the season is running ahead of schedule thus, the remaining volumes should be almost 50 % lower than 2016. Besides, volumes of Mediterranean suppliers should only accelerate to reach their cruising speed at the end of the year/beginning of 2018. Moreover, both Spain and Israel have forecasted lighter seasons than 2016-17 (-20% for Spain, -25/30% for Israel). In this con-text, other suppliers (Morocco, Colombia and Mexico) which have forecasted higher crops should not be able to entirely compensate for the lack of volumes. For the green varieties, the last batches of Ettinger from Israel should enter the market in w48.


Green Decreasing Israeli volumes due

to the expected deficit of Pin-

kerton/Fuerte/Arad.

Hass = Stable Chilean volumes at le-

vels below 2016.

You can find more information on

Avocado forecast for winter season

2017-18

Mediterranean Hass crop forecast

World avocado statistics

Avocado monthly market review


Green = Firm prices.

Hass = Upward trend of prices.

18%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

w45 - w47 w46 - w48 w47 - w49

E U - G L O B A L H A S S S U P P L Y T R E N D

Average last 3weeks 2017 /2016

Average last 3seasons of theannualconsumptiongrowth


http://www.fruitrop.com/en/Produits/Bananahttp://www.fruitrop.com/en/Articles-Web/Studies-Analysis/2017/2017-18-avocado-campaign-forecastD:/Mes%20Donnees/Musiquehttp://www.fruitrop.com/en/Articles-Web/Studies-Analysis/2017/2017-18-avocado-campaign-forecastD:/Mes%20Donnees/Musiquehttp://www.fruitrop.com/en/Articles-Web/Direct-from-the-markets/2017/Avocado-smaller-Mediterranean-Hass-crop-in-perspectiveD:/Mes%20Donnees/Musiquehttp://www.fruitrop.com/en/Articles-Web/Statistics/2017/Avocado-2016-2017-statisticshttp://www.fruitrop.com/en/Articles-Web/Market-trends/2017/Avocado-September-2017

WEEK

48

2017



US MARKET— Overview

USDA Reference Price in the USA

Spot market—Hass grade 48

Global US supply

5

W48 W48 / W47 2017 / 2016

33.25 $ / 11.15 kg lug

+ 6 $ + 14 %

The global supply in the US market has further tended down, keeping levels below average (-16%) but just re-covering levels similar to 2016. First, Mexican deliveries have further decreased, recovering levels similar to last year. Chilean volumes have continued to tend down, still exhibiting levels below 2016 as the peak of arrivals has taken place earlier than last year. In this context, prices on the spot market for Mexican fruits have recovered an upward trend, above 2016.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Tho

usa

nd

to

nn

es

G L O B A L S U P P L Y T O T H E U S M A R K E T

2 017 2 016 2 015 2 014

Source : HAB

Mexico94%

Chile6%

Market share of suppliers in the USA

Source : HAB

0

20

40

60

80

100

$ /

11,1

5 kg

lug

I M P O R T P R I C E O N T H E S P O T M A R K E T H A S S - G R A D E 4 8 - I N D O L L A R

2017 2014 2015 2016Source : USDA


Accumulated supply Last 3 W

supply /

average Total year

2017 (tons)

Comparison

with

year 2016

Comparison

with

year2015

Hass Sharp decrease, recovering

levels similar to 2016. 878 990 - 4 % - 1 % - 2 %

Source: USDA

10,05

13,10

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

eur

o /

4 k

g b

ox

A V E R A G E P R I C E S I N T H E E U A N D U S AE Q U I V A L E N T G R A D E 1 8 , S P O T M A R K E T , I N

E U R O S

USA Import price - Hass Grade 48 (equivalent grade 18)

EU Import price - Hass grade 18

Source : USDA /Cirad


avocado market report week eu - referen ce price - 48 … · w48 w48 / w47 2017 / 2016 33.25 $ /...

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